RADAR CHECK: Strong to severe storms have developed in the Big Country this afternoon and are continuing to move to the southeast this evening. Some of these storms are severe with 60 mph winds and up to half-dollar sized hail, with flooding being a possibility with those that experience torrential downpours. The SPC maintains a low-end "marginal risk" of severe thunderstorms for much of the southern half of the North Texas region through the evening hours. The heavier storms could produce small hail and gusty winds.
Temperatures remain mostly on average with readings mostly in the mid to upper 80s. The average high for Dallas/Fort-Worth on May 27 is 84.
The upper low will continue to move slowly eastward, and we expect mostly dry conditions tomorrow, followed by completely dry weather by Friday. An isolated storm or two is possible on Thursday. We expect highs in the mid 80s tomorrow and Friday, with a good supply of sunshine.
THE WEEKEND: Unusually dry air drops into the state over the weekend. Look for sunny days, fair nights, with a tad lower humidity levels. We will continue with highs around 85-87 Saturday and Sunday... many places will see lows in the low 60s Saturday morning. Very average to the end of May here in North Texas.
NEXT WEEK: The weather looks very dry next week with a warming trend. Afternoon highs will reach the low to mid 90s by the end of the week. Showers and storms will be very limited in number, if any.
TROPICS: Tropical Storm Bertha formed quickly early this morning, just off the South Carolina coast. It is now inland, moving northward producing heavy rain as a tropical depression. The rest of the Atlantic Basin is quiet. The official start of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season is June 1.
Look for the next weather discussion and blog update by noon tomorrow.
Owner - ApexStorm
GRADUAL CLEARING: An upper low in East Texas will slowly drift away from us in coming days, gradually diminishing the chances of showers and storms for the next couple of days. This evening, we have a mix of sun and clouds in many locations, and temperatures are only in the low to mid 70s across much of the region. The average high for Dallas/Fort-Worth on May 26 is 86 degrees. Any isolated showers we see could linger on into the overnight hours.
We will continue to forecast periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours through Friday as the upper low continues to move out of here. The rain will not be continuous or widespread, and we will, of course, see periods of sunshine throughout. The overall pattern remains unsettled, and it is likely that the spots that do get wet will pick up an additional 0.15 inches of rain.
If sufficient instability can develop, we have the potential for a few severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening. The SPC has a low end "marginal risk" (level 1/5) of severe storms defined for the southern end of the North Texas region, with a higher severe risk further south toward Austin and San Antonio.
Where stronger storms develop, hail and strong wind gusts will be possible.
THE WEEKEND: A very dry airmass for the end of May drops in here Friday, keeping us dry for a long time. The days will be mostly sunny with a tad lower humidity values, and after morning lows in the mid 60s, highs will be in the mid 80s, about average for late May.
NEXT WEEK: Dry weather continues for most of the week with slowly increasing heat and humidity levels. We will likely reach the lower 90s by Wednesday.
TROPICS: Showers and storms located over the northwestern Bahamas, extreme northeastern Florida, near Atlantic waters are in conjunction with an elongated surface trough interacting with an upper-level disturbance. Despite a weak surface low forming within the trough near Orlando, little, if any, further development of the system is expected as a result of land interaction, strong shear, and an abundance of dry air in the mid-levels.
Development or not, heavy rain could cause flooding over portions of the Carolinas tonight and Wednesday. Gusty winds could produce rough marine conditions and life-threatening surf and rip currents along the northeastern Florida, Georgia, and the Carolina coasts through tomorrow.
Look for the next blog update here by 7:00 PM tomorrow.
Owner - ApexStorm
RAINY MEMORIAL DAY: It has been very wet today with most of the Metroplex and North Texas region receiving rain at some point in the day. The general consensus has received an inch of rain over the past 24 hours, with many isolated spots of three inches or greater. The sky is mostly cloudy, and temperatures are in the 67-91 degree range this late afternoon. Rain will continue to move to the north with time.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: The upper-level trough in our state will begin to weaken and gradually move to the east, towards the Deep South. This will bring a noticeable decrease in the amount of showers and storms to the region during the mid-week period. Look for occasional showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. Highs will warm to the upper 70s to low 80s due to the lack of rain-cooled air. Rain distribution will not be even, but many communities will likely see an additional quarter of an inch of rain before the weekend.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The weather will trend drier by the weekend as an unusually dry airmass builds across the south-central US. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday are looking very pleasant with mostly sunny skies, lower humidity levels, and continued cool nights. Highs will be in the 80-85 degree range, and lows will mostly be in the upper 60s.
NEXT WEEK: The first half of the week will continue to feature a dry airmass. Scattered storms might return to the forecast by the end of the week.
ON THIS DAY IN 2008: A rare, large, and destructive EF5 tornado created a 43-mile long path across Butler and Black Hawk counties in Iowa. This tornado killed eight people, injured dozens and caused several millions of dollars in damage. The tornado was nearly three-quarters of a mile wide as it moved through the southern end of Parkersburg. A third of the town was affected by devastating damage with nearly 200 homes destroyed. This storm produced the first EF5 tornado in Iowa since June 13, 1976 and only the third EF5 tornado to occur in the United States in the past ten years.
Look for the next North Texas Weather blog update by 5:30 PM tomorrow...
After a relatively dry and warm Saturday, clusters of scattered showers and storms returned to the metroplex today, bringing our tentative May rainfall up to 4.21 inches at DFW, despite local areas seeing even more rain. However, looking forward through the next week, the story will be more of the same as rain continues to play a factor every single day.
Throughout the last week, and through the weekend, mesoscale convective systems (which I will refer to as MCS) plagued North Texas with spotty, scattered cells dropping plenty of rain for some and missing others entirely. The prevalence of multiple daily MCS will become prevalent throughout the week ahead, making it an extremely complicated setup for all forecasters as some places in Texas may see up to 5 inches of rain while others barely see a drop.
SEVERE SETUP OVERNIGHT:
The first wave of scattered storms will develop this afternoon for much of Texas, with the possibility of hail for some. As the storms developed around DFW, they could be accompanied by up to golf ball sized hail and gusty winds caused by significant downdrafts. In addition, storms are likely to move into DFW overnight from the west, which could intercept the slow moving MCS that is around North Texas now. The squall line will be weakening as it enters the metroplex, but it is still plausible that some areas receive hail or straight-line winds.
EARLY NEXT WEEK:
Monday and Tuesday will continue to see multiple MCS move throughout the metroplex, with it being difficult to know who exactly will and won’t receive rain. The shortwave from the Rockies that moved in over the weekend, combined with a weakness found in the gulf, means that our rain profile will transition from severe storms to more of a tropical-like rain pattern, akin to places like Orlando. Clouds and rain will keep temperatures in the high 70s, but high dew points indicate that flash flooding will be extremely possible for areas that receive high amounts of rainfall, especially with the high amounts of continuous rain and high precip action rates that could happen early next week. Most of Texas will see heavy rain but scattered thunderstorms are still possible. That being said, the severe risk is considerably lower for the early part of next week than has been with previous events. All of this is the early shift to an eventual wet pattern that could be in place over Texas for weeks to come.
As the rest of the week progresses, a slow-moving ULL vortex will make its way over DFW by mid week, exacerbating the continuous rainfall conditions by sitting over parts of North Texas from late Tuesday through Friday. Similar to ULL events of the past (such as the one that brought a record 12 inches of snow to DFW in February of 2010!) indicate that the threat of floods will continue to increase throughout the week as high levels of sustained precipitation will impact weakened areas and potentially cause flash flooding. However, this combined ULL and MCS event is still a few days out, so being able to anticipate what areas will receive the most amount of rain is impossible at this time. While it’s likely that all parts of NTX could receive well over 2 inches of rain over the next 5 days, it’s not improbable that some areas receive rain every day while others only see rain one day. However, continue to prepare as if it will affect you—flooding is extremely dangerous and if you live in low-lying areas or around weak dams/smaller streams, pay extremely close attention to the weather as the week develops, as it will become apparent quickly whether or not the flood risk is greater or less than it appears to be right now. Throughout this whole event, temperatures are to remain in 70s mostly, as although highs are forecasted to be in the 80s, the prevalence of rain that is forecasted and the dew points indicate that temperatures will likely be suppressed by the rain. In summary, rain will be here to stay for this week and 2-5 inches of rain is extremely likely for most everyone.
The wet pattern continues! Confidence is increasing that we are nowhere near done with this wet pattern, and it could persist for weeks. There is an excerpt from the FWD AFD that I think best sums up how things are looking for the end of May and early June. “The rainfall will further strengthen the troughing aloft, which will in turn lead to more rain events.” As we get these prolonged, heavy rain events, it will, by default, delay a lot of ridging that brings us a lot of our summertime, dry heat. It’s looking more and more likely that we will continue to dodge triple digit weather in favor of wet conditions.
Stay safe, stay dry, and stay weather aware!
EARLY MORNING WAKE-UP CALL: After midnight, a lone thunderstorm out near Wichita Falls began making a turn to the south, cycling as it made its way to the metroplex. By the 4:30-5:30 timeframe, the storm produced frequent cloud to ground lightning, some damaging winds, and golf-ball sized hail. The NWS Office in Fort Worth measured 1.5" hail at 4:26 am.
The storm has weakened and has subsequently continued to push to the east/southeast. We will remain partly sunny and dry for at least the early afternoon hours, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY OVERNIGHT: A rather unstable airmass is expected to hold and move south this evening into tonight, and high resolution data suggests rapid development of severe thunderstorms at around sunset just to the south of Wichita Falls. SPC has issued a wind-driven
"moderate risk" (level 4 of 5) of severe storms for parts of northeast Texas and East Oklahoma. The rest of North Texas is surrounded by an "enhanced risk" (level 3 of 5) of severe storms, extending down to Central Texas.
UPDATE: AS OF 11:30 TODAY, DFW HAS NOW BEEN ADDED TO THE MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS AND VERY LARGE HAIL IS INCREASING.
TIMING: Storms will likely develop near Wichita Falls after 7PM and move southward through the region overnight. The broad window for severe storms in North Texas will be from 8PM to 7AM tomorrow morning. The focused window will be from 10PM to 4PM through the metroplex.
THREATS: Any storm clusters that form during the early stages will have the possibility of becoming quite severe, posing the threat of very large hail (up to the size of tennis balls), damaging winds, and tornadoes. Any clusters will very quickly congeal into a QLCS (quasi-linear convective system), mainly posing the risk for damaging winds, some up to hurricane force gusts of 80 mph or more (remember, damaging straight-line winds can produce tornado-like damage). The highest tornado probabilities will be focused in the northeast corner of Texas and extreme southeast Oklahoma.
RAINFALL: Rain amounts of around 1-1.5" inches is possible across the region, with isolated higher amounts. Some flooding is possible with torrential rainfall.
CALL TO ACTION: Be sure to have multiple way of receiving warnings during the overnight hours (don't rely on a siren!!!). In your safe place, make sure you have helmets for everyone in your family. If you are in a mobile home, know your location of a site built-shelter, and how to get there quickly.
This is the day to treat severe thunderstorm warnings very seriously. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally produce tornadoes and tornado-like straight line wind speeds. Make sure your NOAA Weather Radio is on overnight, so it can wake you up if you are sleep while these storms are coming through. Also, make sure you are in our text-messaging system (text @apexstorm to 81010).
Owner - ApexStorm
After a nice Saturday, a continued nice day is expected today with highs in the lower 80s expected with abundant sunshine. A few more clouds will be possible later this afternoon, but dry weather is expected.
Tomorrow overall will remain fairly uneventful, but a decaying area of showers and storms will dive out of Oklahoma early tomorrow afternoon and may set up an outflow boundary somewhere in North Texas. This may allow for a very low storm chance, however no severe weather is expected. Skies will be partly cloudy with highs in the low to mid 80s. A few storms may develop N/W of the region tomorrow evening, and could make a run at our western/northern zones tomorrow night. At this time, severe weather is not expected as weakening is likely. Lows will remain in the upper 60s.
Tuesday is shaping up to be an active severe weather day across parts of the state. While most of the day will be dry, a dryline will sharpen out to the west and will be the focus (along with a cold front in Oklahoma) for thunderstorm development. There are uncertainties about a capping inversion aloft preventing storm initiation, however some models (incl. Euro) have shown rather explosive supercellular development just west of I/35 late afternoon on Tuesday and moving eastward into our area during the early evening hours.
The Storm Prediction Center has already outlined much of the area in a "Slight Risk" for severe weather on Tuesday for storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Remember, the initial threat of severe weather is conditional, but if storms develop they could be rather intense.
Notice the area inside the black circle (includes much of North Texas, including DFW) where the SPC has concerns for significant severe weather. (hatched risk) We are closely monitoring this.
Tuesday afternoon and evening isn't our only risk of storms. As a cold front slides in during the early overnight hours, an additional area of storms could develop. The best chance will be along and east of I/35 where better bouyancy and moisture remains. These storms could also be severe, primarily with damaging winds and a low tornado threat. Large hail still isn't ruled out with these storms.
The rest of the week will be much calmer but remaining warm with highs in the 80s.
Our next storm system will approach by next Sunday, and increasing southerly flow could shoot temperatures into the 90s with storm chances increasing, especially into early next week. Given the climatology, severe weather would certainly be in the realm of possibility. However, this is a week out and too many of uncertainties exist to get into any sort of detail. Have a great Sunday!
THIS AFTERNOON: It warmed very nicely to the mid 70s around lunch time! We will continue to see the temperature warm to the low 80s during the late afternoon and evening hours.
THREAT OF SUPERCELLS TOMORROW: Let's just preface this blog by saying that this is the most serious threat of severe weather we have had in recent years. We saw what has been going on the past couple of Sunday's in Dixie Alley and Mississippi, and knew that our time was inevitably coming. So, here we are.
Another vigorous spring weather system will impact the Ark-La-Tex and Piney Woods region tomorrow afternoon and evening, with the threat of tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds.
SETUP: The mid-level jet will become coupled with the low-level jet by the afternoon and evening hours, especially after sunset, creating a favorable combination of lift, shear, and helicity for potentially strong tornadoes and very large to perhaps giant sized hail. The greatest probabilities for a localized episode of tornadoes is forecast from south-central Oklahoma through much of the North-Central Texas in the greatest threat of the "enhanced risk" area. In addition to the tornado risk, very large to giant sized (golf ball sized or larger) hail and wind damage will like be likely across a large part of the Ark-La-Tex region tomorrow afternoon and evening. The threat for damaging winds is expected to increase as a mesoscale convective system (MCS) moves eastward across East Texas overnight, eventually into Louisiana and Arkansas by Thursday morning.
An hour ago, the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has defined a "enhanced risk" (level 3/5) for areas along and east of I-35 and along and south of I-40 in Oklahoma and Arkansas. There is the standard "slight risk" (level 2/5) from generally to the east of Wichita Falls into the Houston area, and a "marginal risk" (level 1/5) defined as far out as Wichita Falls, Ranger, New Braunfels, and Victoria.
PLACEMENT: The position of the dryline tomorrow afternoon will determine the extent of the hail and tornado risk in North Texas. I believe the dryline will be somewhere near, or just to the west of I-35 (Denton to Waco).
TIMING: The main window for severe thunderstorms will come from around 4:00PM to 10:00 PM. The threat will initiate in Northwest Texas, shifting to the east through the evening and overnight hours.
THREATS: Thunderstorms over North-central Texas will be capable of producing very large to giant sized hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Strong tornadoes (EF2 or greater) will be possible in the North Texas region, which includes the DFW Metroplex.
CALL TO ACTION: It is late April. You know the drill. Be sure you have a way of receiving warnings. Have an action plan if you find yourself under a tornado warning polygon.
•Have a NOAA Weather Radio in your home and workplace. Ensure that it is properly programmed with a fresh battery in it in case of power outages.
•Make sure you have WEA (Wireless Emergency Alerts) enabled on your phone. Go to Settings > Notification > then scroll all the way down and make sure emergency alerts are on. Make sure you are in our free ApexStorm text messaging system as a secondary way of getting warnings. Text @apexstorm to 81010.
•Identify the safe place in your home, which is a small room (hall, closet, bathroom), on the lowest floor, near the center of your house, away from windows. In that safe place, have helmets for everyone that lives with you, portable airhorns, and hard-sole shoes.
•If you are in a tornado warning polygon, you musn't stay in a mobile home. Know where the closest site-built structure is located, and how to quickly get there.
•Protecting yourself from a tornado is the first priority when it comes to the Coronavirus pandemic. Tornadoes and hail are immediate threats to life and property; get to your safe place first, then do the best you can to prevent the spread of the virus.
Aforementioned above, there is the risk of a few tornadoes, but we will not see a system over 100 tornadoes in Dixie Alley on Easter Sunday. However, just know that all it takes it one tornado in the entire region, and if you come down your street, that is YOUR tornado event.
ANXIETY: We are all tired of the Coronavirus. We are not here to scare anyone, or add to everyone's level of worry. However, we need to do our jobs of letting you know about the severity of the weather tomorrow. If you are feeling anxious reading this, just keep in mind that even in a severe weather outbreak, the chance of your house being hit by a tornado is low.
Be sure to follow @donowx, @LoganShipleyWx, and @weltywx on Twitter, as we will be frequently posting forecast updates, warnings, and rapidly changing conditions on there.
Owner - ApexStorm
After yesterday's severe storms, it was a much nicer and calmer day in North Texas. However, our severe weather risks ramp back up in the next 24-48 hours. More details below...
FIRST OFF: A couple thunderstorms will develop late tonight near I/20, however the extent, if the lift is even enough for development, and intensity of these is uncertain. If storms develop, they will tap in to some elevated instability and strong deep layer shear. These storms could produce quarter to half dollar size hail and gusty winds. The overall severe risk is low. The SPC has outlined portions North Texas in a level 1 "Marginal Risk" for severe weather tonight.
These will clear out late tonight and we will be left with a partly to mostly cloudy day tomorrow. A few storms will be possible as a warm front lifts northward through the area dependent on a capping inversion. Strong low level instability and deep layer shear will favor a risk of supercellular structure in any storm that develops with UH near 250 m2/s2. The main risks will be large hail and damaging winds and will favor areas north/west of DFW.
We will watch as they attempt to make a run at North Texas during the evening hours. Whether or not these make the trip (nonetheless even materialize) is very uncertain at this time. Below is a more aggressive solution from the TTU-WRF.
Meanwhile, the NAM 3km favors a dry forecast with any storms well northwest of our area.
These storms will clear out of North Texas either way by early to mid morning on Wednesday, leaving us wide open in the warm sector with rapid destabilization expected. By late morning into early afternoon, we could see some development that will remain more elevated and will favor areas east of I/35 capable of large hail. However, by 3-5pm the dryline will be mixing west as our boundary layer mixes out and surface air parcels find the unstable and bouyant airmass set up east of the dryline. This will be the area to watch for initial supercellular development (near I/35) capable of initially very large hail and a tornado or two. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a good portion of the area in the "Slight Risk" of severe weather with a hatched large hail risk. (--- meaning greater potential of 2" hail or larger---) Due to increasing LI's, storms will begin to cluster as they move into East Texas favoring a risk of heavy rain and damaging winds, and with increasing LLJ a QLCS-based tornado risk may evolve during the overnight hours in East TX into LA.
A cold front will follow the dryline and usher in drier air for Thursday, with temperatures in the 70s and pleasant temperatures. A quick return in moisture will occur Friday afternoon into the overnight, and a few storms may develop along a boundary that could pose a severe risk mainly east of DFW. A quiet weekend is expected, but storm chances will return early next week as the next shortwave approaches and a NW flow aloft begins to settle in.
LOCALLY: Early morning/afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue to lift to the northeast, out of the region. New development is expected by the late afternoon hours, with the severe threat beginning in our counties to the west by 3p. We will continue to reach for the low 70s later this afternoon.
TEXAS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: As expected, the risk of severe weather for a good chunk of North Texas has increased as the mesoscale model data becomes more refined as well as reaching realizations of our current atmospheric conditions.
A potent storm system with very strong wind fields is advancing to the east, and will continue to do so through the weekend, interacting with a very unstable airmass across Texas and the Deep South. As the atmosphere destabilizes, long-track, dangerous supercells evolve where the cap erodes and will subsequently move very quickly to the east to the north-east, capable of producing strong to violent tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds, depending on where you are in the Deep South. Our afternoon/evening of severe weather will be today through the overnight hours for much of Texas. The greatest risk of severe weather will lie in West and Central Texas.
The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has issued an "enhanced risk" level (level 3 of 5) of severe storms from a broad line from Childress to San Antonio, followed by the standard "slight" risk (level 2 of 5) encompassing the rest of the state.
Continue to understand to understand it doesn't matter where you are in these colors. If you live in North or Central Texas, just understand that you have a chance of seeing severe weather this afternoon and evening into the overnight hours. Storms do not follow these guidelines that are used to illustrate where the best combination of thermodynamics and dynamics are.
TIMING: Initial thunderstorm development will take place in Northwest Texas at around 3 to 4PM. These storms will move to the east-northeast with time, and the core threat of supercell thunderstorms will come during the evening to overnight hours, generally between 4PM and 12AM. Our last round of rain/severe thunderstorms will come from the Del Rio Valley, developing at around midnight, making its way into the North-Central Texas area from around 3 to 8 AM as the cold front moves to the east.
THREATS: With the first round of supercell thunderstorms, all modes of severe weather will be possible, including primarily large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Given the dynamics that are in place, while I don't anticipate widespread tornado reports, I do think there is *potential* for one or two intense tornadoes with the initial supercells that develop in Northwest Texas and move to the east.
The threat with the pre-dawn QLCS (Quasi-linear convective system) will come from mainly damaging winds and (very) large hail in some spots. There is even the risk for a couple of embedded, brief tornadoes.
RAIN: Rain amounts should generally stay below an inch for most places in North Texas, so flooding will not be of concern.
Now, that we have covered this evening, let us shift the attention to our folks that may be affected in the Deep South. Please share this if you know anybody that might be in this area.
The SPC maintains a "moderate risk" (level 4 out of 5) of severe weather for much of Central Louisiana, Mississippi, and parts of west and Central Alabama, with an "enhanced risk" (level 3 out of 5) encompassing much of the Deep South at this point.
TIMING: Initial thunderstorm development will take place in the Ark-La-Tex region late morning as unstable air shifts northward in advance of the warm front. The peak threat of supercell thunderstorms for the most affected region will take place from around 12PM to 12AM.
THREATS: All modes of severe weather will be possible, including the threat for very large hail and damaging winds. Based on the magnitude of the atmosphere, several tornadoes are expected, including the potential for a few violent, long track tornadoes.
UNCERTAINTY: WIth any severe weather event, comes with the air of uncertainty that could either make for a worse-case scenario or for storms to not be as intense, which is ultimately what we want. Elevated convection within the warm sector is expected during the morning hours, which could dampen the overall severe potential, or produce enough outflow to introduce a higher-end tornado potential. This type of uncertainty precludes the need to upgrade to a high risk with this forecast at this present time. However, confidence is still high that a macro-scale severe weather event takes place.
WiLl tHiS bE LiKE aPRiL 27tH, 2011?: I really do not like this question at all. 216 tornadoes were confirmed that day, with a third of them being strong to violent. Those are generational events. Meaning, they tend to happen once every 40 years or more. However, bear in mind that if there is only one tornado in your state, and that happens to come down your street, that is YOUR April 27th, 2011.
PREPARE, PREPARE, PREPARE: Today is day where you and your family need to keep ready for severe thunderstorms. Be sure you have multiple ways of receiving warnings. NEVER RELY ON A TORNADO SIREN. First, make sure you have a NOAA Weather Radio. Every home in the Plains and Deep South needs one as they work off of their own network, making them very reliable.
On your phone, make sure you have WEA (Wireless Emergency Alerts) enabled on your phone. To make sure of this go to Settings > Notifications > scroll all the way down to the bottom to ensure that "Emergency Alerts" are enabled.
If you live in the North-Central Texas region, be sure to join our text messaging system by texting @apexstorm to 81010; it is an excellent way of getting severe weather watches and warnings pushed to your phone, as well as daily forecasts and forecast updates.
Find the safest place in your home. It is typically in a small room, on the lowest floor, near the center of your house, away from windows. In that safe place, have helmets for everyone, airhorns (in case you are injured and need to alert first responders on site), and hard-sole shoes (if you must walk over tornado debris).
If you live in a mobile home, you can not stay put during a tornado warning. Identify the nearest location of a shelter or safe place, and know how to get there at a moments notice.
YOU'RE GONNA BE FINE: I am well aware that we are in a time in our society that most people in the South, and nationwide, are suffering from high anxiety from a global pandemic. The last thing we want as trusted forecasters is to add to that anxiety. However, at the same time, we must present the weather situation the way it currently stands. If you are located anywhere in the Deep South, just know that there is no reason to panic about today or tomorrow. Even during a severe weather outbreak, the chances of a tornado hitting your house are low, as tornadoes are tiny compared to counties, or the entire state. Unfortunately, lots of amateur weather weenies are on the social media outlets today using a myriad of scare tactics, which is ridiculous and irresponsible. They do not have any prior knowledge behind the different models and maps, what they mean, or how to interpret it. Yet, people will share them without second guessing. Please stay away from these pages, as nobody needs more anxiety. Only get weather information from trusted sources (like this blog and our social media outlets).
COVID-19: From the National Weather Service offices in Alabama and Mississippi, the Alabama and Mississippi Department of Health:
MISSISSIPPI: This spring, the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency (MEMA), the Mississippi State Department of Health, (MSDH), and the National Weather Service (NWS) are offering the following guidance for how to take shelter from severe weather during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The need to practice social distancing and prevent the spread of COVID-19 brings added complications to taking shelter from severe weather. However, state and federal officials agree that your top priority should be to protect yourself from a potential tornado.
Officials recommend sheltering from tornadoes inside your home when possible. If you don't have a below-ground storm shelter, well-constructed homes and buildings provide life-saving protection from many of Mississippi's tornadoes. Take shelter in a closet, bathroom, interior hallway or other interior room with no windows on the lowest level of the house or building. For mobile home residents, you should abandon the mobile home in favor of a sturdy building during severe weather. This alternative structure should be a part of a severe weather plan that is identified well in advance.
If your family typically takes refuge in a public storm shelter in your community, first check with your community shelter managers to ensure they will still be open and if there are any special considerations to plan for due to COVID-19.
Now is the time to explore the best options to keep you safe from severe weather as well as limit your exposure to the virus. Don't wait until a tornado warning is issued to make a plan.
Wherever you choose to shelter from a tornado: take as many precautions as possible to inhibit the spread of COVID-19 as best as you can, continue social distancing, and frequent handwashing.
The best way to prepare for severe weather during a pandemic is to stay informed of the latest weather forecast from the NWS and local media: as well as the latest recommendations regarding COVID-19 from the Center for Disease Control (CDC), the Mississippi State Department of Health, and local authorities.
ALABAMA: The decision to seek shelter in a community storm shelter is certainly made more difficult by the consideration for COVID-19, and each individual will need to make an educated decision on where and when to shelter from a tornado.
At this time, the Alabama Department of Public Health (ADPH) is recommending that your first priority should be to protect yourself from a potential tornado. If a warning is issued for your area, you are more likely to be affected by the tornado than the virus.
However, the decisions to open any community shelters are done at the local or county level. Before you make a decision to go to a community shelter, you should check with your community shelter managers to ensure they are open, and if there are any local COVID-19 considerations. Certainly, wherever you choose to shelter from a tornado, you should use as many precautions as possible to inhibit the spread of COVID-19 as best as you can. If you rely on public community shelters, now may be the time to explore other options that might keep you safer from severe weather and possibly limit your exposure to COVID-19.
Keep tabs on our feeds @donowx, @LoganShipleyWx, the blog, and join the ApexStorm text message system by texting @apexstorm to 81010. Just hang tight, we will get through this together.
MIDDAY: Morning clouds are continuing to clear the North-Central Texas region as we become more comfortable throughout the afternoon with temperatures approaching the low 70s with a easterly wind. Any chance of showers and storms will remain to the south of San Antonio.
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF TEXAS TOMORROW: Tomorrow's severe potential will mark the beginning of a multi-day outbreak of severe weather that will last until Monday for parts of the Southern US. A potent storm system with very strong wind fields will advance east through this weekend, interacting with a very unstable airmass across the Deep South. As the atmosphere destabilizes, long-track, severe storms will evolve where the cap erodes, and will move east/north-east, capable of producing violent tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds, depending on where you are in the Deep South. Our day of severe weather will be tomorrow afternoon through evening for much of Texas. The greatest threat of severe weather will lie in Central Texas, as I will show below.
The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has issued an "enhanced risk" (level 3 of 5) of severe storms for a fine from Del Rio to Lufkin, with the standard "slight risk" (level 2 of 5) encompassing the rest of the state.
Like I say with any severe threat (this goes for those that are reading this anywhere in the Deep South), please be advised that these maps are only used for guidelines and that these storms do not follow these colors. These risks are used to simply illustrate where the best combination of thermodynamics and dynamics lie.
TIMING: I expect thunderstorm development at around the 1-2PM time frame in Central Texas, and will open the broad window for strong to severe storms in North-Central Texas from around 4PM to 11PM.
THREATS: All modes of severe weather will be possible, including the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Right now, we are looking at a potential MCS (mesoscale convective system) of strong to severe storms capable of producing large hail and gusty winds. However, keep in mind that any storm that becomes discrete will have the potential of producing a strong, long-tracked tornado. The warm sector is sufficiently north with low level shear of over 40kts in many places, combined with 90kts of 8kts shear will make for a very volatile environment for a tornado to thrive in. Also, this is mainly after the sun is set, which would make matters a little more worse because of the low level jet intensifying any shear and upper air forcing already existent. However, there is one caveat. If the storm mode is messy like what the meso models depict, there is a good chance that hail and damaging winds will be a primary threat. Keep in mind that this is entirely conditional and will depend on current observations tomorrow. I am not anticipating a tornado event, but an isolated strong tornado is possible, but not likely at this present time.
RAIN: Rain should be confined to a little less than an inch, so flooding should not be a concern in North-Central Texas.
CALL TO ACTION: I am very cognizant that we are in a time in our society that most people in the DFW Metroplex, and nationwide, are suffering from high anxiety due to the rapidly changing conditions in the midst of a global pandemic. The last thing we want to do as trusted forecasters is to add to that anxiety, but at the same time, we must present the weather situation the way it currently stands right now so you can be prepared. If you are located anywhere in the Deep South (not just Texas), just know that there is no reason to panic about the next couple of days, you just have to ensure that you and your family take the requisite steps to ensure that you are as safe as possible.
First and foremost, you must have a way of receiving warning. NEVER RELY ON AN OUTDOOR SIREN. The baseline is each house being equipped with a NOAA Weather Radio that has fresh batteries, and is properly programmed (start here to get frequency and SAME code information for your area).
On your phone, make sure WEA (Wireless Emergency Alerts) are enabled in your settings, under notifications. Furthermore, if you live in the DFW Metroplex, make sure to text @apexstorm to 81010 so you get notifications for when severe weather impacts the Metroplex.
Know where your safe place is located, and be sure to have helmets and hard sole shoes, airhorns, or whistles for everyone in your house. If you are in a mobile home, know where you are going and how to quickly get there in the event of a tornado.
No need to fear about the weekend. Keep a close eye on my twitter and the ApexStorm Facebook page. We will get through Saturday and Sunday together.
Owner - ApexStorm
Scattered to widespread showers and even a couple t-storms are expected today, with temperatures remaining in the 40s. No severe weather is expected, but it is a good day to stay inside. (as we all should be anyway) Temperatures stay steady tonight. Warm air advection increases tomorrow, and we will rebound into the low to middle 60s. The STJ will allow for impulses of energy to provide scattered showers and a few thunderstorms through the day tomorrow, but nothing severe is expected.
A southwesterly flow regime will continue into Monday, and deep moisture will continue to remain in place. More impulses of energy will come along with the remaining STJ, leading to more scattered thunderstorms mainly during the heating of the day. Monday will be warmer and humid with highs in the middle 70s. A slightly greater amount of instability will be in place, so a strong to marginally severe storm or two with 40-50mph winds and upwards of 1" hail in diameter will be possible.
Strong southwesterly winds will increase high temperatures on Tuesday, with a dryline pushing eastward towards I/35 during the afternoon. Temperatures will soar well into the 80s Tuesday afternoon with partly sunny skies. There will be a low chance of a storm along the dryline, however veered flow on the humid side and dry side of the boundary will limit any type of convergence that attempts to establish. Therefore, the chance of any storms on Tuesday is very low, but not zero. If a storm does manage to develop or a more defined set up occurs, we will have a very unstable and decently sheared environment capable of severe storms. Again, the chance of any development is low but will remain watched.
Wednesday is the more interesting day of the week with a leading trough and surface low combining with a cold front sagging into the Southern Plains with an established dryline in our western counties. A veered flow will be in place ahead of this dryline, and convergence may be better than Tuesday leading to the chance of scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening hours. An unstable and sheared environment will be in place, so there will be a threat of severe weather if storms can develop. There is significant difference among global guidance on whether storm development occurs or not. This will be watched the next few days.
Either way, a cold front will move into North Texas late Wednesday night and thunderstorms will likely develop along the boundary. There will be a risk for strong or severe storms during this timeframe, but the extend of storm coverage and the severity of storms is still rather unknown.
Thursday will be much colder and windy with temperatures likely falling into the 50s during the afternoon. Scattered showers will remain possible through the day, but nothing widespread or severe is expected.
A warming trend will take place next weekend, but dry weather is expected at this time.
RADAR CHECK: Most of the showers and thunderstorms have pushed out of the North-Central Texas region this morning, leaving only a cluster of thunderstorms just south of the Red River. We do note that those storms have triggered a Flash Flood Warning to be posted for a portion of Cooke and Grayson counties until 11:00 AM this morning.
For the coverage area this afternoon, I expect mostly dry conditions with a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the middle 70s. However, I can not rule out the potential for a stray thunderstorm or two. Most of our potential third round of heavy rain and strong to severe storms will come during the overnight hours, however.
SEVERE RISK FOR MOST OF NORTH AND WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT: Current surface analysis reveals a surface low over southwestern Kansas with a quasi-stationary front stretching down to the south across west Texas, extending further to the east across North-Central Texas. The warm sector is characterized by dewpoints in the middle to upper 60s with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 70s in most spots this afternoon. The rich boundary layer in the Big Country combined with daytime heating instability (especially with the sun being out) will cause a risk of severe weather this afternoon and evening for northwest and north-central Texas.
The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has an "enhanced risk" (level 3/5) of severe storms for most of the Big Country and for areas generally north and west of I-35W. The standard "slight risk" (level 2/5) runs through the DFW Metroplex, generally surrounding the Enhanced Risk for about 100 miles apart. Lastly, a "marginal risk" (level 1 of 5) runs through the rest of the North Texas area, extending down towards Central Texas.
TIMING: Most of the development will take place along the dryline in West Texas at around 5-6PM. The any discrete storm will consolidate into an MCS (mesoscale convective system) later overnight. The severe risk in the North Texas region will run from about 9PM-12AM, with the risk of heavy rain running from midnight to the pre-dawn hours.
THREATS: All modes of severe weather will be possible, just like yesterday night. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary risk. However, a couple of tornadoes will be possible, like what we saw in Throckmorton yesterday afternoon. There is still a little bit of uncertainty regarding the extent of the spread of heavy during the early morning hours. One of the mesoscale models keeps most of the activity confined to North Texas, while one of them keeps the rain widespread through North and Central Texas. Nonetheless, please keep in mind that North Texas has the best chance of severe with heavy rain chances, which may lead to localized flooding.
TOMORROW: The threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will continue tomorrow for our northeastern counties as activity develops from a remnant outflow boundary. Associated lift should support the threat for large hail and damaging winds for those zones. Flooding will be a continued issue in already saturated areas.
FRIDAY: Things cool off considerably Friday with a cold front pushing southward late Thursday night into Friday with highs in the 50s and 60s. An upstream shortwave will approach from the south, which will add another chance of showers and thunderstorms which should affect our southernmost counties. Flooding should not be much of concern by that point.
We should get a break from the rain Saturday and for most of Sunday with highs in the mid 50s. We will see mostly sunny skies Saturday followed by cloudiness on Sunday.
Please keep tabs on our twitter and Facebook page, as we will be updating frequently.
The cold front has stalled to our south and east, and temperatures in DFW have fallen into the 50s. A couple thunderstorms have developed east of DFW along the boundary. A few storms will likely develop in DFW later this evening into the overnight, and a few could be strong with frequent lightning and heavy rain. Coverage will only be 40% or so.
Tomorrow will be a cool day with highs in the 60s. Scattered showers and a few t-storms will be possible through the day, but no severe storms are anticipated. As the warm front lifts northward Sunday night, widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop with near an 80% chance of rain. Some of these could turn strong with hail or some gusty winds, but the severe risk remains very low. Below is the European model for late tomorrow evening/early overnight.
Monday morning will have storms around, but we should see some dry weather around midday before redeveloping thunderstorms are likely during peak heating. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s. No severe weather is expected.
Dry weather is anticipated Monday night with temperatures in the 60s. However, a few showers or sprinkles aren't ruled out.
By Tuesday, the first wave of energy will approach West Texas during the afternoon. Strong to possibly severe storms could develop, and these will be watched as they march eastward. These storms will turn into a squall line, and will make a run at DFW & North Texas late Tuesday night. If it can make the trip, a strong or severe storm with damaging winds and heavy rain will be possible. The level of certainty is very low regarding this timeframe, and we should have a better idea by Monday. The best chance will be in our western counties.
After a few potential morning t-storms on Wednesday, a couple afternoon storms could develop during the afternoon. This will be a timeframe to watch for some severe storms once again, with hail or wind likely being the main threat. Another squall line could develop in West Texas and will make a run at North Texas once again Wednesday evening and night. If it makes it, some strong or severe storms will be possible. These may last into Thursday morning, and this will have a large affect on Thursday afternoon.
Dependent on the speed of the dryline on Thursday and how much destabilization we can have, severe thunderstorms may fire up during the afternoon along the dryline. The best chance will be east of I/35. This potential will be watched the next few days. Stay tuned as we refine the details to this weeks forecast the next few days.
Friday will be drier and cooler with highs in the 60s. A strong cold front may move in late in the day and highs could be in the 50s and 60s on Saturday with a chance of scattered rain showers. Severe weather would be very unlikely during this time due to a chillier pattern in place.
Widespread storms rolled in this morning with some severe in DFW, producing damaging winds and hail around 10-11am this morning. However, all of that has moved out and most have been left with a cloudy and mild afternoon. The exception is our northwestern zones where some storms have redeveloped but are currently below severe limits. An enhanced risk of severe storms is in place in far West Texas, where supercellular development is expected within the next few hours. All modes of severe weather will be possible, and this is actually a key to the forecast tonight. These storms will tend to cluster up and will make a run for North Texas. These should stay just N/W of DFW, where a few isolated strong or severe storms will be possible embedded in the clusters. Hail or wind will be the main threat.
This is all associated with a cold front that is stalled across the area now that will lift northward overnight. It will re-approach the region tomorrow afternoon, and showers & thunderstorms will quickly fire up by afternoon with near a 40-50% coverage. A couple of these may turn strong or maybe severe with 1000-2000 instability and some shear in place. Main risk will be large hail. Severe risk right now overall appears low. Best chances are east of I/35.
Sunday looks like the calmest of the next seven, with only isolated showers and storms expected. Nothing severe or widespread. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s.
Monday will have widespread storms, mainly in the morning hours. Some of these could be strong with hail or gusty winds. Severe threat looks quite low. Scattered storms will likely redevelop in the afternoon. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s once again.
Tuesday will have numerous thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon hours. Ingredients may be in place for some severe storms, but this part of the forecast is uncertain. We should get some refinement on that the next few days. Highs will be in the upper 70s. A very similar forecast is in place on Wednesday, and there may be some severe weather once again. We will see how this first wave evolves the next few days. Highs will be in the upper 70s as well on Wednesday.
Thursday looks to be the main show storm wise and severe weather wise. A dynamic system will aid in the development of afternoon and evening storms, and a rather significant severe weather event may evolve somewhere in the plains in the warm sector, with snow/wintry precip in the cold sector. (central and northern plains) This is six days out and will change. Highs Thursday will be near 80° or so.
We should dry out by Friday with dry weather next weekend.
Skies this morning are partly to mostly cloudy, and this will remain the same through the day. We may see a brief stint of more adequate sunshine around midday before some clouds build this afternoon. Some showers & thunderstorms are likely to develop, but coverage will not be great. More details below.
After 2-3pm, isolated-scattered t-storms will develop along an eastward moving dryline. Strong surface based instability and buoyancy will combine with strong vertical shear and steep lapse rates in excess of 7.5 C°/KM. Near straight hodographs and SHR beyond 200 m2/s2 will likely mean splitting supercell potential in a few storms this afternoon. All these ingredients will lead to a risk of strong to possibly severe t-storms this afternoon. Main risk will be large hail greater than 1.5" in diameter, but mixing of the boundary layer may allow for damaging downburst winds in the stronger cells up to 70mph. However, a strong southwest flow ahead of the boundary with weaker shear towards the surface and winds on each layer/level being more unidirectional will greatly hamper the tornado risk this afternoon. But, if stronger low level shear is present with the first wave of energy approaching from the west of this afternoon, then an slightly increased tornado risk will exist mainly east of I/35. Therefore, an isolated tornado isn't ruled out, but it is rather unlikely.
The frontal boundary itself will hang around tonight and tomorrow, and waves of showers and storms are likely. A few "squall lines" of storms are likely tomorrow, and a couple storms may turn severe with mainly some hail. The severe risk tomorrow is low but not zero. Rain coverage will be near 70-80% tomorrow. Highs will be pretty tough, 50s/60s north of the boundary and 70s south. DFW will likely be in the mid/upper 60s but this aspect of the forecast can bust very easily.
Either way, the boundary will lift north on Saturday with mainly dry weather the first half of the day with scattered showers & storms likely during the afternoon. Greater instability and shear combined with dews in excess of 65°+ will allow for a severe risk. Main risks will be large hail and/or damaging wind gusts. Coverage will be near 60%. Highs will be in the upper 70s.
Sunday will be a bit cooler with highs in the 60s and scattered showers and storms will be likely once again, but no severe storms are expected. Coverage will be near 40%.
A large scale storm system will approach Monday and Tuesday, and another front will be hanging around with the dryline stationed out west. T-Storms are likely both days, and a few could be severe with ingredients in place. Several more pieces of energy will continue to ride the jet stream with a strong flow. This will allow for continued storm chances mid to late next week with severe storms and heavy rain being a possibility.
I'm sure if you've been outside today, you can tell it's warm and rather humid out. This is all in advance of our next storm system, first of many rather. Storm chances rise tomorrow, but I do want to mention a very low 10% chance of a storm developing this evening. A rather unstable atmosphere is in place, but little to no lift is present. But it's not impossible for a storm to develop, and if it does so it could become severe with large hail. Most, if not all will be dry tonight.
The first wave of energy will move in later tomorrow afternoon, and a couple storms will likely develop after 2-3pm. This will accompany a dryline and cold front, and additional storms will develop through the evening. These storms will have a potential to turn severe quickly with large hail and damaging winds as the main threats, but an isolated tornado or two is possible. Storm chances tomorrow are 40-50%, with highs in the middle 80s.
By Friday morning, an area of showers and storms will be moving in and this will last through most of the afternoon. Some of these will also have a threat to turn severe, mainly with damaging winds or hail. Highs will be in the low 70s, with 60s north and upper 70s south of DFW.
All of that clears out Friday evening and mainly dry weather is expected Friday night despite a few isolated showers or thunderstorms hanging around. A warm front will lift north though the area, and temperatures will stay in the mid to upper 60s overnight.
On Saturday, a few storms will be possible in the morning mainly north and west of DFW. These will send a boundary to the I/35 corridor during the afternoon, and scattered thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon. With increasing surface instability in excess of 1500-2000 J/kg combining with strong vertical shear, some strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible once again Saturday afternoon. Main threats appears to be large hail and damaging wind gusts. Highs will be in the upper 70s. These will move east of the area Saturday night with cloudy skies.
On Sunday, the forecast is a bit complicated. Dependent on the placement of the boundary, highs will likely be in the 70s with ANOTHER chance of afternoon showers & thunderstorms. Instability and shear looks to be weaker than previous days, however a strong or severe storm with hail still appears within the realm of possibility.
The forecast really remains the same on Monday, with a chance of scattered strong storms in the afternoon with the severe potential being rather low, but not zero. Highs will be in the mid 70s.
On Tuesday & Wednesday, a more dynamic set up with a boundary along with a dryline and surface low will set up across the Plains each afternoon. This will allow for scattered to widespread thunderstorms both afternoons, and severe weather appears possible with strong shear and sufficient instability. With all the rain that is likely the next several days, flooding will be a concern especially next week with periods of heavy rain and strong storms possible. Stay tuned for updates.
But yes, all in all a very active pattern is in place and I do see a sign of cooler and drier weather towards mid month. (later next week)
A nice weekend is coming to an end unfortunately. The workweek looks wet, and your Monday morning commute will likely have some frustrations for many.
A weak upper level low will transverse the area late tonight into tomorrow, and scattered to widespread showers will develop. Some pockets of moderate to heavy rain will be possible, the best chance will be north of I/20. Only a 20-30% chance of rain exists south of DFW, with 40-60% locally with near 80% rain chances along the Red River. No severe weather is expected. In fact, no storms are really expected.
We will see some sunshine in the afternoon with highs reaching the middle 70s. A weak cold front may try to slip in Monday night, but will have to battle strong southerly winds. The cold front at this time isn't expected to make it into the area, and no rain is foreseen Monday night.
The boundary will float around S Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon, where some forcing and lift will be. This will be the time to watch for a few isolated storms to attempt to develop Tuesday evening into the early overnight. IF storms can manage to develop, the main threat would be large hail. Increasing instability near 1500-2000 J/kg combining with increasingly strong mid level winds and deep layer shear will aid in that severe potential. It's uncertain if any storms can develop. The best chance is in the highlighted area, where a 20-30% chance of storms exists.
By Wednesday, a very weak disturbance (known as a ripple in the upper levels) will push the dryline into our western counties. A little lift combined with warm air advection will aid in a few storms to develop in the afternoon, and once again the combination of 2000 J/kg of instability at the surface and strong deep layer shear will allow for a couple stronger storms. The main threat will be strong winds and large hail. Coverage will be 20-30% once again. So main takeaway from Tuesday and Wednesday is any storm development is conditional, but if they do develop they could be severe. Stay tuned for more info. Highs both days will b in the low 80s.
Thursday will have a similar forecast, except perhaps a slightly greater chance of storms. A few storms, once again, could approach severe limits with sufficient instability and shear. None of these severe risks are overwhelming, but there will be that daily storm and low severe risk. Highs will be in the upper 70s and low 80s. Storm chances will be near 30-40%.
Friday by far is the most interesting day. A few early morning showers and thunderstorms will lift north of the area by mid morning, and destabilization will take place for much of the morning and afternoon hours. A strongly defined warm sector with dewpoints exceeding 65°+ for much of the area. Instability will be over 1500 J/kg for much of the area, and shear looks quite impressive. Models have continued to signal winds backed to the south and east and becoming directional at several levels. These ingredients typically can lead to a more significant severe weather threat as the dryline approaches during the afternoon. Remember, it is Sunday and we are talking about Friday. Several things can and will change, but stay tuned as an active week is in store for us. A cold front should overtake everything by Saturday, and a few storms may accompany it mainly in Central Texas. The main system will have rotated mainly east of the area, so shear will be limited. Therefore, despite decent projected instability, the severe weather threat would appear to be very low. The forecast beyond Saturday is uncertain, as the GFS suggests the front becomes stalled and lifts north as a warm front Sunday and more storm chances will last into next week, while the ECMWF takes a long time for southerly flow to return to North Texas. We will see how this aspect of the forecast evolves over the next few days.
After a nice but humid second half of the weekend, rain chances rapidly pick up this week with a front and a strong upper level low.
TO START OFF - A warm night is in store for North Texas, with lows in the low to mid 60s for much of the area. A few 50s will be likely as well with mostly cloudy skies. The subtropical jet is noticeable across North TX right now, as it is bisecting the area. When you look to the south, do you see the strong cut off in clouds? It is because that is where the subtropical jet is located, which our storm system will ride the next few days.
TOMORROW (Monday) - A cold front will be moving into the northern half of the area during the late afternoon (likely northern Denton/Collin Co. by 3-5pm or so. We will watch as this front moves into the DFW metroplex for a few isolated strong to severe storms to develop. Latest guidance has suggested a greater amount of instability and shear will be present, so we will watch for any development to turn severe. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s, with upper 60s north of DFW and a few areas could push 80° south of I/20. I've raised storm chances to 40% for areas near Interstate 20 during the afternoon hours. Main threat (if storms develop) would be large hail and damaging wind gusts. Remember, this threat is conditional and depends on an EML inversion along with the extent of the lift/placement of the boundary.
Monday Night - Overall, I think besides a few evening strong storms we should be dry overnight. It's certainly possible for a shower or two, but most will remain dry. Lows will be in the middle 50s.
Tuesday/Tuesday Night - This is the more complicated of them all. Tuesday should be fairly dry until 5pm at least. A few isolated showers and storms could be around during the afternoon, but most should be dry with highs pushing 70° for the metroplex, with areas north in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Low 70s common in our southern zones. It's also possible for a bit of sunshine for areas near and south of I/20 and east of I/35 Tuesday afternoon. After Tuesday PM, everything becomes really complicated. The cold front that pushes through will likely get stalled in our southern and southeastern zones. This is a possibility - It lifts back to the north and pushes 60°+ dewpoints back into North Texas, especially south of I/20. Severe weather would then be a threat for the metroplex and areas to the south. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main risks as storms move in late Tuesday evening into the early overnight. Another, more likely scenario would be the warm front stays south of the area, therefore the severe risk does as well, but widespread showers and storms (a few could still be strong) would be likely Tuesday night through Wednesday. Stay updated with us as a very uncertain forecast is in play Tuesday night.
Wednesday will feature widespread showers and even a few thunderstorms with temperatures falling as a second push of cooler air comes in. Highs will be in the 50s. Rain will continue into Wednesday night, tapering off by daybreak Thursday.
ONE THING WE ARE CERTAIN OF - Very heavy rain will be possible in many storms, and widespread 2-3" of rain is likely with a corridor of 3-4" possible especially along I/20. Things will dry out by Thursday with highs in the upper 60s.
Dry weather is expected Friday and Saturday, but our next storm system arrives by Sunday with showers and storms possible for Sunday into early next week.
Good morning, North Texas!
Another great day is in store for us; highs will be in the middle 60s for the area with abundant sunshine. Our official forecast for DFW today is 66°. Tomorrow will feature much of the same, but highs may reach the low to mid 70s with sunshine once again being dominant. By Sunday, gusty southerly winds will bring moisture and warmth to the area with highs projected to be in the upper 70s, with even some low 80s in our western counties. Moisture will be increasing, so a few more clouds will be a likely outcome for us.
By Monday, all eyes turn to a strong cold front to our north. With compressional warming, I think areas south of the Red River make a push for 80° Monday afternoon, despite mostly cloudy skies. Humid conditions will be with us, so it will feel like a typical spring storm day. The front should approach late evening, and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop. With more meager instability near 700 J/kg at the surface, it will be hard for storms to come surface based given the mixed boundary layer. Buoyancy will be greatest for storm develop east of I/35, and very strong shear will be in place. Right now, I think most storms will remain more elevated. Certainly with steep lapse rates near 7.5° C/KM, large hail will be a possibility in a few storms overnight. If greater surface instability materializes, surface based severe storms will be a possibility along the front. At this time, that potential appears low. The front may become stalled just to the south and east of the metroplex. This would mean a severe weather threat would establish to the southeast of the metroplex, especially towards the Brazos Valley into Louisiana Tuesday afternoon. The ECWMF has suggested the front lifts back north and west as a warm front, and areas near I/20 and south would have a severe weather risk Tuesday afternoon. We will see which solution pans out, so stay tuned just in case this ends up including parts of the metroplex. Once again, surface instability will not be overwhelming, but a bit more sufficient than Monday with values near 1500 J/kg. Strong directional shear will favor all modes of severe weather, however the extent of the risk is unknown given potential for messy storm mode which may tame the severe risk. One thing we are confident in is widespread thunderstorms, leading to potential of heavy rain and flooding. We will see how models trend the next few days.
The actual upper level low itself will transverse the region Tuesday night, and another round of heavy rain will be possible. The northern stream will have to be watched, as any colder air that gets deeper in our far north western zones could favor a chance of wintry precipitation in a few spots especially towards the TX Panhandle. Cooler temperatures will filter in Wednesday, with highs only in the 40s and 50s.
We should see a quick warm up to the 60s late next week, with 70s likely over the weekend as our next storm system may approach and given thermodynamics models indicate, severe weather would be a possibility. However, that is 8-10 days away and isn't of any concern at this time.
After a gorgeous weekend, things change quickly. I'm going to very quickly run through tomorrow and Tuesday. Scattered showers and storms possible both days especially east of I/35. A few severe storms possible EAST of DFW on Tuesday as the front moves in. Falling temperatures in the afternoon are expected.
Ok... now Tuesday night and Wednesday....
Widespread precipitation will develop overnight Tuesday. Cold air will spread in, and sub freezing temperatures (28-31°) will arrive by late Tuesday night. Rain will change to freezing rain, then to sleet for much of the morning Wednesday. As even colder air moves in during the afternoon Wednesday, we may see a transition to all snow during late morning into the afternoon. Snow showers will likely continue into the overnight.
First off: Winter Storm Watches will likely being issued in the next 24-36 hours for North Texas. (possible DFW)
ROAD IMPACTS: We are still 2-3 days out, so this forecast WILL change and evolve. Light icing on roadways will be possible from DFW and off to the N/W, and sleet and snow accumulations will likely suffice for tricky travel and slick roadways. The burning question is obviously: Will school and work be cancelled? It's a sure possibility. But it's still unknown. These events can throw surprises.
NW OF DFW - Light icing possible, but mainly snow is expected. 2-3" of snow is possible with locally higher amounts possible.
DFW - The icing potential (freezing rain) is a bit higher. Sleet and snow accumulations of 1" possible, with locally higher amounts.
SE OF DFW - Mainly a cold rain is expected, but a few flakes of snow and some sleet may mix in at times on Wednesday. Little to no accumulation is expected.
ALL OF THESE DETAILS ARE PRELIMINARY AND ARE UNCERTAIN. NOTHING IS A LOCK AND CHANGES TO THIS ARE EXPECTED, THIS IS JUST A GENERAL IDEA.
Please stay up to date regarding newest information and if any watches, advisories, or warnings are issued for North Texas.
Before I get into next week, let's talk about how GREAT this weekend will be. After a cold start today in the 20s and 30s, we will reach the low 60s across much of North Texas, with upper 60s in our western zones with the sloping affect. Sunshine will be in abundance today, be sure to get out and enjoy it! Tomorrow won't start quite as cold, with lows in the mid 40s. We will shoot up to the mid to upper 70s tomorrow, but some scattered stratus to start off will lead to some cumuli clouds during the afternoon. No rain is expected.
By Monday, a weak shortwave from Mexico will pull in a little moisture, and a few showers and storms may develop. Rain coverage will only be 10-20%. Best chances will be east and south of the DFW area.
On Tuesday, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop by late morning/early afternoon along an arctic cold front. Some of these may reach severe limits, especially east of the Metroplex. Gusty winds and hail will be the primary risks, but an isolated tornado isn't ruled out. Temperatures will fall into the 40s by late afternoon, with upper 30s by late evening. This is when a wintry threat comes into play. Read more details below...
FIRST AND FOREMOST - This forecast is VERY subject to change and is highly uncertain. Please take all information as caution,and don't panic to the grocery store...
By midnight Tuesday, some of our computer models suggest freezing temperatures will arrive in North Texas. (north of I/20, west of I/35) A mixture of rain, freezing rain, and sleet is possible in these areas starting around midnight, WEST of DFW.
As we head towards daybreak Wednesday, the freezing line is VERY uncertain. Some models have the freezing line staying north and west of the metroplex. This scenario would favor mainly cold rain mixed with perhaps a little sleet. Some models have the freezing line reaching areas south and east of DFW, leading to a mixture of freezing rain, sleet, and snow across much of North and even northern central Texas. Ultimately, the extend of the cold air will be the deciding factor on if DFW sees wintry weather. The models are fairly split on this idea, and we should have a better idea of what will happen by tomorrow or Monday. Please bear with us as we try to figure out this very complicating scenario. Accumulations and impacts would certainly be possible in areas that see wintry precipitation, but it is uncertain of the extent and how much accumulation would be possible. We are closely going to monitor this over the next few days. Right now, our current forecast calls for mostly cloudy skies and a chance of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow for areas north of I/20 and east of I/75. (DFW points back to the west) Highs will likely remain in the 30s all day Wednesday, and some models have portions of North Texas struggling to get above freezing.
As the cutoff low finally ejects northeast, models have been consistently indicating a round of snow late Wednesday night for areas generally east of a Bowie to Jacksboro to Stephenville line. (includes DFW) Thursday should have clearing skies late in the day, with highs in the low 40s. These could be higher or lower dependent on wintry precipitation on Wednesday.
A big warm up will take place especially over the latter half of next weekend, with highs in the 60s and possibly the 70s across NTX.
After widespread showers have finally shifted east of DFW, cloudy and cool weather remain across North Texas. More isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon, mainly east of I/35 into East Texas. No severe weather is expected. Highs today will top the upper 50s to near 60° locally, but colder temperatures (i.e. 40s) in our far western zones behind the cold front are expected.
The front will move through this evening, causing falling temperatures and a few more showers. Clouds will stay tonight, but temperatures will fall into the 30s.
Tomorrow will be a gloomy, cold day across North Texas. Widespread cloud cover will stick around all day, with highs in the 40s across North Texas. A few morning sprinkles or a very light shower isn't ruled out.
By Thursday, a weak shortwave will approach from the west. Clouds will be widespread throughout the day, and isolated showers will be possible through the day with highs in the mid 40s. A few sleet showers are possible west of DFW where temperatures may stay in the 30s. As we head into the overnight, showers will increase in coverage (about half of North Texas will recieve measurable rainfall) and lows will be in the 30s. Cold air aloft may allow for light sleet and snow at times especially west of I/35, but no accumulations or impacts are expected. Best precipitation coverage will be in Central Texas, however all liquid precipitation is forecast for our southern zones.
As the final system departes, chilly but clearing weather is expected for Friday. Highs will be in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
The weekend will be sunny and rather warm for this time of year, with highs in the mid 60s on Saturday and low 70s on Sunday with mostly sunny skies.
Looking in into next week, a rather warm start with highs in the 70s is expected for Monday before a strongly indicated arctic front is likely on Tuesday. This will bring highs possibly in the 30s and 40s. Some wintry precipitation may be a possibility during this timeframe, however it is too far out for any details or certainty on the potential.
After a chilly but nice long weekend, things will begin to shake up weather wise the next 24-36 hours across the south. Tonight will be quite cold, with temperatures in the upper 20s for many. Clouds will quickly increase by sunrise. Tomorrow’s forecast is highly dependent on cloud cover and movement of warm air advection/warm sector. Areas north of I/20 and east of I/35 will likely stay in the low 40s for high temperatures, and our southwestern zones (i.e. Stephenville, Comanche etc) will likely reach the 50s. Some light drizzle or virga isn’t ruled out.
Widespread precipitation will develop out in West Texas tomorrow afternoon and slowly march eastward into North Texas during the overnight hours. This is where everything becomes more interesting EAST or I/35 and north of I/20. As dynamic cooling takes place overnight, temperatures will fall into the low to mid 30s for some. Cold upper levels will follow the first wave of energy, and this is where wet bulbing can take place and allow for those colder temperatures. IF EVERYTHING ALIGNS RIGHT, rain may mix with or change over to sleet or snow at times late tomorrow night into Wednesday morning before changing over to rain by 8am. The track and speed of this system will be important as well. All of these factors will be watched closely. Right now, accumulations look to be light and favored northeast of DFW towards McKinney into northeast TX. Road impacts look to be minimal to none with marginal surface temperatures. So to answer the burning question NO, school and work will NOT be affected. However, do exercise caution on roadways just in case as well as rain can make for slippery roads. Rain will continue into much of the day Wednesday with temperatures only reaching the upper 30s and lower 40s across North Texas. A few flakes may continue to mix across far northeast Texas into the early afternoon.
Temperatures will rise overnight Wednesday night into the mid 40s and rain will continue. Thursday will be cool and rainy with a few storms especially in the morning. Best rain chances shift into east Texas by afternoon. Highs will be in the 50s.
A very nice weekend will follow, however a few sleet pellets are possible early Friday in our far northern zones especially towards the Arklatex with any left over moisture. DFW will be dry but cool on Friday with highs in the 50s, and the story remains the same over the weekend.
Next week looks dry and mild with highs in the 60s, however an approaching storm system will increase rain chances by mid to late week and temperatures will likely become colder. It remains to be seen whether or not any wintry precipitation will be a threat, but it appears unlikely at this time.
LIKE A LATE SPRING MORNING: It feels very comfortable outside this morning as temperatures sit in the mid 60s across much of North Texas. If you didn't know any better, you would think that we are in April. However, we all know that when it is this warm for a period of time with a severe weather threat on the horizon, not so good things tend to happen, but let's hope that doesn't happen today.
SEVERE STORMS IN TEXAS TODAY: New data coming in this morning maintains the idea of a potent severe weather setup for much of North and Northeast Texas today. The storm system will feature developing strong wind field with the low level jet (5,000 feet off the ground) being in the 50-80 knot range, making for a windy day in East Texas and relatively high storm relative helicity indices (veering of the wind with altitude in relation to storm motion). The SPC has areas to the east of Dallas (including Garland and Rowlett) in a "moderate risk" (level 4/5) of severe storms, while the rest of the metroplex and much of Central Texas falls under the "enhanced risk" (level 3/5) of severe storms, while the standard "slight risk" (level 2/5) extends right through San Antonio through Wichita Falls.
As I always say with any threat of severe storms, please don't get caught within the risk categories or colors. Just be advised that all of North Texas has a risk of severe thunderstorms today. With all of the hype that social media tends to bring, I know that some people that look at that stuff suffer from storm anxiety already, which only makes matters worse. Just understand that even with a significant severe weather day looming over our heads, the chance of one particular spot being affected by hail or even a tornado is still quite low. Just like any severe weather threat, be prepared and you will get through the evening just fine.
TIMING: The main window for severe storms over the metroplex will come from around 2 PM to 9PM when/if the cap erodes on time, and 7PM till Saturday morning for most of the moderate risk area. This will generally be a evening/nighttime event.
THREATS: Discrete thunderstorms will develop during the late afternoon with potential for very large hail (especially in the Metroplex) and a few tornadoes. Based on specific forecast soundings, I wouldn't be too surprised if we see a strong tornado or two (EF2 or higher) across North and Northeast Texas. However, the main event will come from damaging straight-line winds for much of East Texas and beyond. Some hurricane-force winds is possible for interests in East Texas. Away from the severe weather threat, the pressure gradient will already be fairly high during the day, with winds averaging 15-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. A wind advisory has been issued for much of East Texas today.
RAIN: Rain amounts today should be around 2-3 inches for much of the region with some flooding issues possible. We note that a flash flood watch is in effect for much of the DFW Metroplex and points northeast.
CALL TO ACTION: Everyone will need a great way of getting severe weather warnings throughout the afternoon and evening today if needed. Make sure WEA ("emergency alerts") are enabled on your phone. Make sure to have a NOAA Weather Radio in your home and business. NEVER RELY ON AN OUTDOOR SIREN.
Just be sure to double check the safe place in your home; a small room on the lowest floor near the center of your house, away from windows. Make sure every person in your home knows where that safe place is, and you have helmets for everyone that lives there. Make sure to have a portable air horn, as well as heavy duty shoes. YOU CAN NOT STAY IN A MOBILE HOME IF YOU ARE IN A TORNADO WARNING. In this situation, know the nearest shelter that is available.
ARE TORNADOES UNCOMMON IN JANUARY? Not really. We have seen 43 tornadoes in January since 1880, which goes to show that these events can happen any time of the year.
We may experience a light wintery mix tomorrow morning with no travel impacts. Other than that, we clear for the weekend with highs in the low 40s tomorrow and upper 50s on Sunday.
NEXT WEEK: Most of next week remains dry with a mix of sun and clouds, featuring highs in the upper 60s for at least the beginning of the week. See the Texas Weather Discussion Video for more details.