Hello North Texas! We have a really exciting weather week ahead of us and so many possible outcomes could happen just in the span of a week. I’ll try my best to give a brief overview of everything and some of the events might warrant a second blog post soon.
The rest of Sunday and Monday will be relatively uneventful, with highs in the 70s today and a cloudy day in the 60s on Monday. However, by early Tuesday morning, moisture from the gulf is expected to bring some brief showers. It’ll be relatively seasonal with temperatures in the 60s as precipitation starts around midnight, and it will linger throughout the day with spotty showers and low stratus clouds making it an overall gloomy day. The moisture will be ahead of an upper level low that is projected to track over Texas starting from the Mexico/New Mexico area, and that upper level low provides for a tricky but intriguing scenario on Wednesday.
SEVERE WEATHER AND SNOW:
The track of the upper level low will determine exactly what happens in the next few days. Wednesday is probably for some severe weather near the metroplex, as the low sweeps through Texas. A few thunderstorms can’t be ruled out for DFW proper, but there’s differing model solutions for exactly where and how severe the weather will be. The global models have a wider swath of precipitation whereas the NAM has a tighter squall line. I think the DFW metro area will likely see some morning storms without a chance for hail, with a potential for some strong winds and thunder. However, as this upper level low tracks across Texas, we have a very decent chance at some wintry weather. While a wintry mix is the most likely solution, the track of the low could turn that into more substantial wintry weather. We won’t have any issue with QPF (precipitation) which places it all on the track of the low. The CMC and UKMET shows a very low, deep trough, with plenty of wrap around snow in the DFW area, with accumulations of around 4 inches. The GFS, however, pulls back with the trough and shows higher accumulations in Central Texas, with only a dusting in NTX and more prominent ice accumulations in DFW due to a stronger warm nose. The NAM isn’t quite at a good range and doesn’t show anything yet for Texas, but the Euro and the NAM look to be heading towards a mix of the two solutions and I would mostly agree. I think, just for caution’s sake, to plan on a wintry mix that develops as a changeover on New Year’s Eve, with a light dusting of snow overnight into 2021. For how poor 2020 has been for mostly everyone, ending it with a little bit of winter fun would be the perfect way to transition into the New Year. We here at ApexStorm will keep you up to date!
Stay warm, stay safe, and stay weather aware!