After widespread showers have finally shifted east of DFW, cloudy and cool weather remain across North Texas. More isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon, mainly east of I/35 into East Texas. No severe weather is expected. Highs today will top the upper 50s to near 60° locally, but colder temperatures (i.e. 40s) in our far western zones behind the cold front are expected.
The front will move through this evening, causing falling temperatures and a few more showers. Clouds will stay tonight, but temperatures will fall into the 30s.
Tomorrow will be a gloomy, cold day across North Texas. Widespread cloud cover will stick around all day, with highs in the 40s across North Texas. A few morning sprinkles or a very light shower isn't ruled out.
By Thursday, a weak shortwave will approach from the west. Clouds will be widespread throughout the day, and isolated showers will be possible through the day with highs in the mid 40s. A few sleet showers are possible west of DFW where temperatures may stay in the 30s. As we head into the overnight, showers will increase in coverage (about half of North Texas will recieve measurable rainfall) and lows will be in the 30s. Cold air aloft may allow for light sleet and snow at times especially west of I/35, but no accumulations or impacts are expected. Best precipitation coverage will be in Central Texas, however all liquid precipitation is forecast for our southern zones.
As the final system departes, chilly but clearing weather is expected for Friday. Highs will be in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
The weekend will be sunny and rather warm for this time of year, with highs in the mid 60s on Saturday and low 70s on Sunday with mostly sunny skies.
Looking in into next week, a rather warm start with highs in the 70s is expected for Monday before a strongly indicated arctic front is likely on Tuesday. This will bring highs possibly in the 30s and 40s. Some wintry precipitation may be a possibility during this timeframe, however it is too far out for any details or certainty on the potential.
After a chilly but nice long weekend, things will begin to shake up weather wise the next 24-36 hours across the south. Tonight will be quite cold, with temperatures in the upper 20s for many. Clouds will quickly increase by sunrise. Tomorrow’s forecast is highly dependent on cloud cover and movement of warm air advection/warm sector. Areas north of I/20 and east of I/35 will likely stay in the low 40s for high temperatures, and our southwestern zones (i.e. Stephenville, Comanche etc) will likely reach the 50s. Some light drizzle or virga isn’t ruled out.
Widespread precipitation will develop out in West Texas tomorrow afternoon and slowly march eastward into North Texas during the overnight hours. This is where everything becomes more interesting EAST or I/35 and north of I/20. As dynamic cooling takes place overnight, temperatures will fall into the low to mid 30s for some. Cold upper levels will follow the first wave of energy, and this is where wet bulbing can take place and allow for those colder temperatures. IF EVERYTHING ALIGNS RIGHT, rain may mix with or change over to sleet or snow at times late tomorrow night into Wednesday morning before changing over to rain by 8am. The track and speed of this system will be important as well. All of these factors will be watched closely. Right now, accumulations look to be light and favored northeast of DFW towards McKinney into northeast TX. Road impacts look to be minimal to none with marginal surface temperatures. So to answer the burning question NO, school and work will NOT be affected. However, do exercise caution on roadways just in case as well as rain can make for slippery roads. Rain will continue into much of the day Wednesday with temperatures only reaching the upper 30s and lower 40s across North Texas. A few flakes may continue to mix across far northeast Texas into the early afternoon.
Temperatures will rise overnight Wednesday night into the mid 40s and rain will continue. Thursday will be cool and rainy with a few storms especially in the morning. Best rain chances shift into east Texas by afternoon. Highs will be in the 50s.
A very nice weekend will follow, however a few sleet pellets are possible early Friday in our far northern zones especially towards the Arklatex with any left over moisture. DFW will be dry but cool on Friday with highs in the 50s, and the story remains the same over the weekend.
Next week looks dry and mild with highs in the 60s, however an approaching storm system will increase rain chances by mid to late week and temperatures will likely become colder. It remains to be seen whether or not any wintry precipitation will be a threat, but it appears unlikely at this time.
LIKE A LATE SPRING MORNING: It feels very comfortable outside this morning as temperatures sit in the mid 60s across much of North Texas. If you didn't know any better, you would think that we are in April. However, we all know that when it is this warm for a period of time with a severe weather threat on the horizon, not so good things tend to happen, but let's hope that doesn't happen today.
SEVERE STORMS IN TEXAS TODAY: New data coming in this morning maintains the idea of a potent severe weather setup for much of North and Northeast Texas today. The storm system will feature developing strong wind field with the low level jet (5,000 feet off the ground) being in the 50-80 knot range, making for a windy day in East Texas and relatively high storm relative helicity indices (veering of the wind with altitude in relation to storm motion). The SPC has areas to the east of Dallas (including Garland and Rowlett) in a "moderate risk" (level 4/5) of severe storms, while the rest of the metroplex and much of Central Texas falls under the "enhanced risk" (level 3/5) of severe storms, while the standard "slight risk" (level 2/5) extends right through San Antonio through Wichita Falls.
As I always say with any threat of severe storms, please don't get caught within the risk categories or colors. Just be advised that all of North Texas has a risk of severe thunderstorms today. With all of the hype that social media tends to bring, I know that some people that look at that stuff suffer from storm anxiety already, which only makes matters worse. Just understand that even with a significant severe weather day looming over our heads, the chance of one particular spot being affected by hail or even a tornado is still quite low. Just like any severe weather threat, be prepared and you will get through the evening just fine.
TIMING: The main window for severe storms over the metroplex will come from around 2 PM to 9PM when/if the cap erodes on time, and 7PM till Saturday morning for most of the moderate risk area. This will generally be a evening/nighttime event.
THREATS: Discrete thunderstorms will develop during the late afternoon with potential for very large hail (especially in the Metroplex) and a few tornadoes. Based on specific forecast soundings, I wouldn't be too surprised if we see a strong tornado or two (EF2 or higher) across North and Northeast Texas. However, the main event will come from damaging straight-line winds for much of East Texas and beyond. Some hurricane-force winds is possible for interests in East Texas. Away from the severe weather threat, the pressure gradient will already be fairly high during the day, with winds averaging 15-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. A wind advisory has been issued for much of East Texas today.
RAIN: Rain amounts today should be around 2-3 inches for much of the region with some flooding issues possible. We note that a flash flood watch is in effect for much of the DFW Metroplex and points northeast.
CALL TO ACTION: Everyone will need a great way of getting severe weather warnings throughout the afternoon and evening today if needed. Make sure WEA ("emergency alerts") are enabled on your phone. Make sure to have a NOAA Weather Radio in your home and business. NEVER RELY ON AN OUTDOOR SIREN.
Just be sure to double check the safe place in your home; a small room on the lowest floor near the center of your house, away from windows. Make sure every person in your home knows where that safe place is, and you have helmets for everyone that lives there. Make sure to have a portable air horn, as well as heavy duty shoes. YOU CAN NOT STAY IN A MOBILE HOME IF YOU ARE IN A TORNADO WARNING. In this situation, know the nearest shelter that is available.
ARE TORNADOES UNCOMMON IN JANUARY? Not really. We have seen 43 tornadoes in January since 1880, which goes to show that these events can happen any time of the year.
We may experience a light wintery mix tomorrow morning with no travel impacts. Other than that, we clear for the weekend with highs in the low 40s tomorrow and upper 50s on Sunday.
NEXT WEEK: Most of next week remains dry with a mix of sun and clouds, featuring highs in the upper 60s for at least the beginning of the week. See the Texas Weather Discussion Video for more details.