END OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER:
After a relatively lackluster August, the weather decided to end meteorological summer with a bang. Saturday was an exclamation of every phenomenon we’ve been experiencing—a record breaking day of heat for DFW with heat indices upwards of 115 degrees that culminated in an over-performing cluster of storms all across North Texas, mirroring the scattered thunderstorms simultaneously popping up all across Oklahoma and Arkansas. All of the rain yesterday came at the hands of a weaker shortwave—with another front looming on the horizon, what does this indicate for North Texas next week?
Sunday continued to be relatively precipitation free, with low chances in the evening as typical destabilization occurs (although, formation of any storms would be extremely limited as the complex of storms that moved throughout the region yesterday ate up most of the moisture). Temperatures will continue to be hot with the potential for Dallas to get to triple digits again Monday. However, during the day Monday, two westerly shortwaves are projected to move in, bringing with it the chance for more severe storms. Coverage for the storms is supposed to be greater and stronger among Southern Oklahoma and along the red river in the middle of the day, but as the day progresses, parts of North Texas could be subject to severe thunderstorms if the timing of the storms allow. Storms could be accompanied by strong winds of up to 60 mph and there is a low, but nonzero risk of small hail. DFW has been placed just south of the slight risk area but that could change as the day continues.
A large front is scheduled to move into North Texas on Tuesday afternoon that will also bring considerable rain and severe storm chances. Localized amounts of 2-4 inches are possible between the Red River and the northern part of the metroplex, with the severe chance moving southeast as the day progresses. There is a threat for severe storms capable of producing hail and damaging winds, similar to Monday. A moderate risk is in effect for much of North Texas for Tuesday and it’s possible that all of the metroplex is upgraded to slight eventually as there is a strong large-scale ascent. Highs are projected to be in the 80s and there aren’t any chances for tornadoes at this point in time, however, I would urge anyone to continue to stay updated with their local weather affiliates and the NWS/SPC to stay weather aware.
THE REST OF THE WEEK:
Rainfall chances continue to exist throughout the week, with heavy rainfall forecasted for Wednesday as the shortwave moves out of Texas. Models currently indicate the potential for flash flooding as we see localized pockets of heavy rain around North Texas. Small chances of rain exist for Friday as well if the storms reach far enough south. In good news, however, temperatures will remain much lower throughout the rest of the week following the front, with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s for the foreseeable future. It will be a welcome break from the onslaught of heat from the last few days. There is even talk of a further cold front after labor day weekend, though it is entirely too far out to legitimize anything.
Stay dry, stay cool, and stay weather aware!
After multiple rounds of showers and t-storms last week, this weekend has been fairly dry and pleasant. A couple chances of showers and storms exists this week. Details below...
First off, a weak cold front will slide through North Texas tonight. A few isolated showers or even a t-storm is possible, but coverage will remain pretty low. Most will be dry.
As flow aloft favors some storm chances Tuesday morning, limited moisture behind the boundary should keep storms at a minimum Tuesday morning. However, widely scattered showers and a few fumbles of thunder will still be possible as moisture tries to return.
Tuesday afternoon will be mainly dry, with highs in the low 90s.
A greater storm threat arrives Tuesday night with increased moisture content. NW flow aloft favors a storm complex to dive south out of Oklahoma Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Gusty winds, brief heavy rain, and frequent lightning will be the primary risks. Some small hail also isn't ruled out in the stronger storms. About 20-40% of us see showers and storms.
A similar set up will follow late Wednesday night, but should weaken before reaching North Texas. Still, a few showers and storms are possible especially in northeast Texas.
Next weekend will be mostly dry and warm with highs in the middle 90s.
WELCOME TO AUGUST!
Hello everyone! I hope everyone has been enjoying the relatively cool weather that we’ve experienced with the cold front that moved in last week. While our neighbors in South Texas just capped off a relatively warm July, we in North Texas experienced a July that was around seasonally average. We had slightly above normal temperatures and around average rainfall as well, making it a forgettable but needed Konya of weather. The more we can avoid record setting heat the better. That being said, we still have another month left in meteorological summer which means there is still plenty of heat left for us. I’ll give you guys a run down of what to expect in this first week of August.
RETURN TO SUMMER HEAT:
We are relatively lucky to be starting August in the low to mid 90s over this weekend. It’s not unusual for most of North Texas to be experiencing a plethora of triple digit degree days. While 2020 has given us our fair share of less than ideal circumstances, Mother Nature has at least been looking out for us by keeping us relatively seasonal through the summer so far. That being said, temperatures are supposed to climb into the high 90s by the end of the week (with a potential to reach 100 on Friday) and it will feel a lot more like August outside. Another subtle change will be the overall dryness of our upcoming weather pattern. Early outlooks suggest August will stay relatively seasonal, with the potential for heat outbreaks but lacking the moisture we have become accustomed to this year thus far. Straying from the wet weather experienced last week, North Texas won’t experience much, if any precipitation this next week as we are dryslotted with a ridge over us and Hurricane Isaias siphoning off moisture to our east. Tropical storms play an integral part into the complex atmospheric dynamics during the summer and the strengthening or weakening of a tropical system is able to completely change precipitation hundreds of miles away. While Isaias isn’t playing a significant role in our weather at the moment, it’s still interesting to see how tropical systems can affect areas that are far away. This blog post is relatively short just because there’s not too much to talk about unfortunately. However, it’s imperative that everyone continue to hydrate, socially distance, and wear A MASK!
Stay hydrated, stay cool, and stay weather aware!