Good morning, North Texas!
Another great day is in store for us; highs will be in the middle 60s for the area with abundant sunshine. Our official forecast for DFW today is 66°. Tomorrow will feature much of the same, but highs may reach the low to mid 70s with sunshine once again being dominant. By Sunday, gusty southerly winds will bring moisture and warmth to the area with highs projected to be in the upper 70s, with even some low 80s in our western counties. Moisture will be increasing, so a few more clouds will be a likely outcome for us.
By Monday, all eyes turn to a strong cold front to our north. With compressional warming, I think areas south of the Red River make a push for 80° Monday afternoon, despite mostly cloudy skies. Humid conditions will be with us, so it will feel like a typical spring storm day. The front should approach late evening, and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop. With more meager instability near 700 J/kg at the surface, it will be hard for storms to come surface based given the mixed boundary layer. Buoyancy will be greatest for storm develop east of I/35, and very strong shear will be in place. Right now, I think most storms will remain more elevated. Certainly with steep lapse rates near 7.5° C/KM, large hail will be a possibility in a few storms overnight. If greater surface instability materializes, surface based severe storms will be a possibility along the front. At this time, that potential appears low. The front may become stalled just to the south and east of the metroplex. This would mean a severe weather threat would establish to the southeast of the metroplex, especially towards the Brazos Valley into Louisiana Tuesday afternoon. The ECWMF has suggested the front lifts back north and west as a warm front, and areas near I/20 and south would have a severe weather risk Tuesday afternoon. We will see which solution pans out, so stay tuned just in case this ends up including parts of the metroplex. Once again, surface instability will not be overwhelming, but a bit more sufficient than Monday with values near 1500 J/kg. Strong directional shear will favor all modes of severe weather, however the extent of the risk is unknown given potential for messy storm mode which may tame the severe risk. One thing we are confident in is widespread thunderstorms, leading to potential of heavy rain and flooding. We will see how models trend the next few days.
The actual upper level low itself will transverse the region Tuesday night, and another round of heavy rain will be possible. The northern stream will have to be watched, as any colder air that gets deeper in our far north western zones could favor a chance of wintry precipitation in a few spots especially towards the TX Panhandle. Cooler temperatures will filter in Wednesday, with highs only in the 40s and 50s.
We should see a quick warm up to the 60s late next week, with 70s likely over the weekend as our next storm system may approach and given thermodynamics models indicate, severe weather would be a possibility. However, that is 8-10 days away and isn't of any concern at this time.
After a gorgeous weekend, things change quickly. I'm going to very quickly run through tomorrow and Tuesday. Scattered showers and storms possible both days especially east of I/35. A few severe storms possible EAST of DFW on Tuesday as the front moves in. Falling temperatures in the afternoon are expected.
Ok... now Tuesday night and Wednesday....
Widespread precipitation will develop overnight Tuesday. Cold air will spread in, and sub freezing temperatures (28-31°) will arrive by late Tuesday night. Rain will change to freezing rain, then to sleet for much of the morning Wednesday. As even colder air moves in during the afternoon Wednesday, we may see a transition to all snow during late morning into the afternoon. Snow showers will likely continue into the overnight.
First off: Winter Storm Watches will likely being issued in the next 24-36 hours for North Texas. (possible DFW)
ROAD IMPACTS: We are still 2-3 days out, so this forecast WILL change and evolve. Light icing on roadways will be possible from DFW and off to the N/W, and sleet and snow accumulations will likely suffice for tricky travel and slick roadways. The burning question is obviously: Will school and work be cancelled? It's a sure possibility. But it's still unknown. These events can throw surprises.
NW OF DFW - Light icing possible, but mainly snow is expected. 2-3" of snow is possible with locally higher amounts possible.
DFW - The icing potential (freezing rain) is a bit higher. Sleet and snow accumulations of 1" possible, with locally higher amounts.
SE OF DFW - Mainly a cold rain is expected, but a few flakes of snow and some sleet may mix in at times on Wednesday. Little to no accumulation is expected.
ALL OF THESE DETAILS ARE PRELIMINARY AND ARE UNCERTAIN. NOTHING IS A LOCK AND CHANGES TO THIS ARE EXPECTED, THIS IS JUST A GENERAL IDEA.
Please stay up to date regarding newest information and if any watches, advisories, or warnings are issued for North Texas.
Before I get into next week, let's talk about how GREAT this weekend will be. After a cold start today in the 20s and 30s, we will reach the low 60s across much of North Texas, with upper 60s in our western zones with the sloping affect. Sunshine will be in abundance today, be sure to get out and enjoy it! Tomorrow won't start quite as cold, with lows in the mid 40s. We will shoot up to the mid to upper 70s tomorrow, but some scattered stratus to start off will lead to some cumuli clouds during the afternoon. No rain is expected.
By Monday, a weak shortwave from Mexico will pull in a little moisture, and a few showers and storms may develop. Rain coverage will only be 10-20%. Best chances will be east and south of the DFW area.
On Tuesday, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop by late morning/early afternoon along an arctic cold front. Some of these may reach severe limits, especially east of the Metroplex. Gusty winds and hail will be the primary risks, but an isolated tornado isn't ruled out. Temperatures will fall into the 40s by late afternoon, with upper 30s by late evening. This is when a wintry threat comes into play. Read more details below...
FIRST AND FOREMOST - This forecast is VERY subject to change and is highly uncertain. Please take all information as caution,and don't panic to the grocery store...
By midnight Tuesday, some of our computer models suggest freezing temperatures will arrive in North Texas. (north of I/20, west of I/35) A mixture of rain, freezing rain, and sleet is possible in these areas starting around midnight, WEST of DFW.
As we head towards daybreak Wednesday, the freezing line is VERY uncertain. Some models have the freezing line staying north and west of the metroplex. This scenario would favor mainly cold rain mixed with perhaps a little sleet. Some models have the freezing line reaching areas south and east of DFW, leading to a mixture of freezing rain, sleet, and snow across much of North and even northern central Texas. Ultimately, the extend of the cold air will be the deciding factor on if DFW sees wintry weather. The models are fairly split on this idea, and we should have a better idea of what will happen by tomorrow or Monday. Please bear with us as we try to figure out this very complicating scenario. Accumulations and impacts would certainly be possible in areas that see wintry precipitation, but it is uncertain of the extent and how much accumulation would be possible. We are closely going to monitor this over the next few days. Right now, our current forecast calls for mostly cloudy skies and a chance of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow for areas north of I/20 and east of I/75. (DFW points back to the west) Highs will likely remain in the 30s all day Wednesday, and some models have portions of North Texas struggling to get above freezing.
As the cutoff low finally ejects northeast, models have been consistently indicating a round of snow late Wednesday night for areas generally east of a Bowie to Jacksboro to Stephenville line. (includes DFW) Thursday should have clearing skies late in the day, with highs in the low 40s. These could be higher or lower dependent on wintry precipitation on Wednesday.
A big warm up will take place especially over the latter half of next weekend, with highs in the 60s and possibly the 70s across NTX.