Active Pattern Ahead

Good morning, North Texas!

Another great day is in store for us; highs will be in the middle 60s for the area with abundant sunshine. Our official forecast for DFW today is 66°. Tomorrow will feature much of the same, but highs may reach the low to mid 70s with sunshine once again being dominant. By Sunday, gusty southerly winds will bring moisture and warmth to the area with highs projected to be in the upper 70s, with even some low 80s in our western counties. Moisture will be increasing, so a few more clouds will be a likely outcome for us.

By Monday, all eyes turn to a strong cold front to our north. With compressional warming, I think areas south of the Red River make a push for 80° Monday afternoon, despite mostly cloudy skies. Humid conditions will be with us, so it will feel like a typical spring storm day. The front should approach late evening, and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop. With more meager instability near 700 J/kg at the surface, it will be hard for storms to come surface based given the mixed boundary layer. Buoyancy will be greatest for storm develop east of I/35, and very strong shear will be in place. Right now, I think most storms will remain more elevated. Certainly with steep lapse rates near 7.5° C/KM, large hail will be a possibility in a few storms overnight. If greater surface instability materializes, surface based severe storms will be a possibility along the front. At this time, that potential appears low. The front may become stalled just to the south and east of the metroplex. This would mean a severe weather threat would establish to the southeast of the metroplex, especially towards the Brazos Valley into Louisiana Tuesday afternoon. The ECWMF has suggested the front lifts back north and west as a warm front, and areas near I/20 and south would have a severe weather risk Tuesday afternoon. We will see which solution pans out, so stay tuned just in case this ends up including parts of the metroplex. Once again, surface instability will not be overwhelming, but a bit more sufficient than Monday with values near 1500 J/kg. Strong directional shear will favor all modes of severe weather, however the extent of the risk is unknown given potential for messy storm mode which may tame the severe risk. One thing we are confident in is widespread thunderstorms, leading to potential of heavy rain and flooding. We will see how models trend the next few days.

The actual upper level low itself will transverse the region Tuesday night, and another round of heavy rain will be possible. The northern stream will have to be watched, as any colder air that gets deeper in our far north western zones could favor a chance of wintry precipitation in a few spots especially towards the TX Panhandle. Cooler temperatures will filter in Wednesday, with highs only in the 40s and 50s.

We should see a quick warm up to the 60s late next week, with 70s likely over the weekend as our next storm system may approach and given thermodynamics models indicate, severe weather would be a possibility. However, that is 8-10 days away and isn't of any concern at this time.

​Logan Shipley