Before I get into next week, let's talk about how GREAT this weekend will be. After a cold start today in the 20s and 30s, we will reach the low 60s across much of North Texas, with upper 60s in our western zones with the sloping affect. Sunshine will be in abundance today, be sure to get out and enjoy it! Tomorrow won't start quite as cold, with lows in the mid 40s. We will shoot up to the mid to upper 70s tomorrow, but some scattered stratus to start off will lead to some cumuli clouds during the afternoon. No rain is expected.
By Monday, a weak shortwave from Mexico will pull in a little moisture, and a few showers and storms may develop. Rain coverage will only be 10-20%. Best chances will be east and south of the DFW area.
On Tuesday, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop by late morning/early afternoon along an arctic cold front. Some of these may reach severe limits, especially east of the Metroplex. Gusty winds and hail will be the primary risks, but an isolated tornado isn't ruled out. Temperatures will fall into the 40s by late afternoon, with upper 30s by late evening. This is when a wintry threat comes into play. Read more details below...
FIRST AND FOREMOST - This forecast is VERY subject to change and is highly uncertain. Please take all information as caution,and don't panic to the grocery store...
By midnight Tuesday, some of our computer models suggest freezing temperatures will arrive in North Texas. (north of I/20, west of I/35) A mixture of rain, freezing rain, and sleet is possible in these areas starting around midnight, WEST of DFW.
As we head towards daybreak Wednesday, the freezing line is VERY uncertain. Some models have the freezing line staying north and west of the metroplex. This scenario would favor mainly cold rain mixed with perhaps a little sleet. Some models have the freezing line reaching areas south and east of DFW, leading to a mixture of freezing rain, sleet, and snow across much of North and even northern central Texas. Ultimately, the extend of the cold air will be the deciding factor on if DFW sees wintry weather. The models are fairly split on this idea, and we should have a better idea of what will happen by tomorrow or Monday. Please bear with us as we try to figure out this very complicating scenario. Accumulations and impacts would certainly be possible in areas that see wintry precipitation, but it is uncertain of the extent and how much accumulation would be possible. We are closely going to monitor this over the next few days. Right now, our current forecast calls for mostly cloudy skies and a chance of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow for areas north of I/20 and east of I/75. (DFW points back to the west) Highs will likely remain in the 30s all day Wednesday, and some models have portions of North Texas struggling to get above freezing.
As the cutoff low finally ejects northeast, models have been consistently indicating a round of snow late Wednesday night for areas generally east of a Bowie to Jacksboro to Stephenville line. (includes DFW) Thursday should have clearing skies late in the day, with highs in the low 40s. These could be higher or lower dependent on wintry precipitation on Wednesday.
A big warm up will take place especially over the latter half of next weekend, with highs in the 60s and possibly the 70s across NTX.