SEVERE CLEAR THIS MORNING: Most communities feature mostly sunny skies this morning with temperatures in the in the upper 40s to low 50s. Expect a gradual increase in cloud cover throughout the afternoon and evening with day time highs in the middle 60s. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, mostly for the areas to the south of the I-35 E/W Junction in Hillsboro. Clouds will remain in place for most of the region on Tuesday, yet, the afternoon will be a few degrees warmer than today with highs in the upper 60s. *POTENTIAL* WINTER STORM POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY - A potent arctic cold front will bring the possibility of winter weather for much of the central two-thirds of the country in the form of freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Our chances of the aforementioned threats will come from Wednesday evening into Thursday during the day. DISCLAIMER - THIS FORECAST CAN AND WILL CHANGE WITHIN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. I HIGHLY URGE ALL OF YOU TO ONLY USE THE MOST RELEVANT AND FRESH INFORMATION AVAILABLE. IF YOU ARE READING INFORMATION THAT IS AT LEAST HALF A DAY OLD, YOU ARE WORKING WITH BAD INFORMATION. TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE THE LAST GOOD DAYS TO PREPARE BEFORE THE INITIAL ONSET OF THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON - Expect the arctic front to slowly arrive into North Texas throughout the afternoon. Conditions will begin to slowly deteriorate upon the arrival of the cold front. A thicker layer of clouds will arrive behind the front. Winds will change directions to the north, in addition to the increase of widespread rain and falling temperatures. WEDNESDAY EVENING (close to when the sun goes down) - Temperatures *may begin to fall below freezing first for the communities to the northwest of the metroplex at around the 4-5p hour, gradually trickling into the urban population through sunset. Though the onset of freezing temperatures won't begin until the sun goes down, the brisk north winds of 20-25 mph will help to expel heat from surface objects, as well as heat from water droplets before they hit the ground. This will lead to ice accumulation with temperatures just at the freezing threshold. *what makes this forecast so challenging is the exact timing of the freezing temperatures. A faster progression of freezing temperatures will result in a more significant winter storm, while a slower progression will lead to minor impacts. For now, the general consensus is sub-freezing to below freezing temperatures by Wednesday night, lasting through Saturday morning. THURSDAY MORNING (pre-dawn hours) - A transition to freezing rain will occur in the metroplex at around midnight, and for those to the south closer to 1-3pm. The subsequent transition to sleet will occur shortly after the onset of the freezing rain (within an hour or two). As temperatures fall below the upper 20s, freezing rain becomes less likely, and sleet will become the dominant precipitation type Thursday morning. Those to the northwest of the metroplex can expect a full transition to snow an hour or two before 'sunrise'. THE REST OF THURSDAY - Winter precipitation will continue through Thursday morning and afternoon, mostly in the form of sleet in the metroplex, tapering off by the evening as the upper level trough moves eastward. IMPACTS - Current thinking is that this will be a freezing rain/sleet event across the metroplex. Areas to the northwest of the metroplex will see 0.25"-0.5" of freezing rain, while the urban islands will see around 0.25". Remember, all it takes is 0.01" of freezing rain to cause significant issues on roadways. The highest sleet accumulations will be from the metroplex and northwest, ranging from 0.75" - 1.50" with the possibility of thundersleet. The highest coverage of snow will be to the northwest of the metroplex where 1-3" will be possible. For DFW, a dusting to an inch can be expected. Please keep in mind that these amounts are significant and is more than enough to cause disruptions to infrastructure, as well as causing difficult travel conditions with some roadways being impossible to travel on. Power outages are likely where ice buildup is on trees and powerlines. I fully expect a Winter Storm Watch or Ice Storm Watch to be issued for most of North Texas later tonight or sometime tomorrow. MAP LITERACY - Just about anytime we forecast extreme weather, I get dozens of messages that consist of "what about *insert town or city here*". Most of these messages come on posts with references to counties or major highways in North Texas. In my five years of doing this, I have learned that several people struggle with geography, and more specifically have a tough time trying to read maps. I understand. I struggle with many things to. If you were to give me analytic geometry questions, I would look at you like you just shot a man before my eyes. But there is no way we can name hundreds of municipalities in North Texas on every post. I encourage you to take a few minutes to learn the major highways and counties relative to your location. I promise it will help you understand the blog entries and the posts I make here addressing any time of weather extreme. FRIGID DAYS TO COME - With the arrival of the cold front, temperatures will not climb above freezing until Saturday afternoon at the absolute earliest. That means, anything that is on the ground will remain frozen. Dangerously cold temperatures will come Friday and Saturday morning with overnight lows reaching the single digits to the teens, with wind chills in the single digits.
PREPARE - Use today tomorrow to prepare as much as you can around the house... *Be sure all of your phones, tablets, and other devices are fully charged. *Travel is highly discouraged Thursday. If you MUST travel, create an emergency supply kit for your car. Include jumper cables, sand, a flashlight, warm clothes, blankets, bottled water and non-perishable snacks. Keep a full tank of gas. Have cat litter or sand to help tires get traction, or road salt to melt ice. *Gather supplies in case you need to stay home for several days without power. Keep in mind each person’s specific needs, including medication. Remember the needs of your pets. Have extra batteries for radios and flashlights. *Turn your refrigerator and freezer to their coldest settings. *If you lose power and you plug a generator into the house electrical system, turn the main off in the breaker box. Otherwise it can be very dangerous for the crews working to restore power. *Understand some could be without power for more than 24 hours with very cold, sub-freezing temperatures. Have an alternative source of heat. And, use it safely. CRAP APPS: Just from this morning, I have received literally several notes and comments from my professors and colleagues telling me what their weather app is showing. Look, I understand the convenience of the app that is preinstalled on most smartphones. It is insanely convenient! you open it, you are shown a symbol with the high temperature, a low temperature, and a chance of precipitation. In a complex, active winter pattern such as this one, automated apps and websites are pretty much useless 2-3 days in advance (sometimes 24 hours). They use computer model data which can be absolutely horribly inaccurate in a time like this. They do not provide ANY context, and, most importantly, does not communicate uncertainty at all when forecasting. There is going to be range of possibilities and it takes a little more than a glance at an app on a phone to understand the complex weather pattern that we are in. So, I would use great caution while you are looking at an app, and I will leave it at that. :-) BE INFORMED: I know I have many first-time readers here. So I would like to say welcome and thank you for taking the time to read my products! I will have many more as we get closer to this event. If you would like frequent weather updates from me, please follow my Twitter @donowx. Please also like our Facebook page linked here. Also, please join our text messaging system to receive daily forecasts and updates by texting @apexstorm to '81010'. Or click the link. Thank you, Donovan Neal Owner - ApexStorm |
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