MORE SUMMER WEATHER: A deep layer of moisture remains over North Texas today, which will result in higher temperatures and higher humidity values, resulting in Heat Advisory conditions. Afternoon highs will be in the triple digits again today with heat indices in the 105-110° range. This will likely be the last day of heat advisory conditions for a long time, if not, the year.
TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY: Our weather turns unsettled with a surface front moving through our area tomorrow, which will spark chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region. Keep in mind that it won't be an all day type rain, just rain at times. There are possibilities for a few stronger storms in the mix with moist air and adequate dynamic support. The SPC has all of North Texas in a "marginal" (level 1 of 5) risk of severe storms tomorrow afternoon to address the potential for gusty winds associated with storms or a few wet microbursts.
We do not expect any major flooding issues, as rain amounts will range from 1-3 inches in most spots. Some street flooding is possible with the most intense cells, however. There is a good chance that many communities hold in the upper 80s tomorrow because of clouds and rain, although some may reach the low 90s by the afternoon.
The weather remains unsettled on Wednesday with showers and storms in the morning. Look for mostly cloudy skies with highs holding in the upper 80s due to clouds and rain once again.
THURSDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND: A few storms are still possible through Thursday. Otherwise, we stay dry for most of the region this weekend with mostly sunny skies. Highs will range from 90-96°. The average high for DFW around this time of the year is 95°; we do not expect any excessively hot weather for the weekend.
NEXT WEEK: Our first week of Meteorological Fall looks very pleasant with partly sunny days and temperatures just a few degrees below average. Fairly routine weather for early September begins with highs around 90-93°. See the Texas Weather Discussion Video for more details.
TROPICS: Invest 98L, which is located hundreds of miles to the east of the South Carolina coast, still maintains a high chance of becoming a tropical/sub-tropical storm within the next 24 hours. It will move to the northeast, away from the US.
Further south, Tropical Storm Dorian in the Atlantic now has max. sustained winds of 60 mph, and will pass through the Leeward Islands early tomorrow morning. Any intensification will be delayed because of dry air around the system, but the NHC does have Dorian on track to becoming a category one hurricane as it nears the Dominican on Thursday.
There is a chance that the mountainous islands and dry air destroys the system before it can move any further northwest, but the NHC moves Dorian through the Bahamas as a tropical depression Friday and the weekend.
The truth is, it is still too early to determine what impacts the system might have on the US. However, the upper air pattern favors curving the system into the westerlies around the South Atlantic Coast. It will remain far away from the Gulf of Mexico if this happens, but still way too early to determine that. The rest of the Atlantic Basin stays quiet.
RAIN POSSIBILITIES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: An increasingly moist, unstable airmass will be in place today, setting the stage for occasional showers and thunderstorms this late afternoon through Saturday. It certainly won't rain all day today or tomorrow, or over the weekend, but there is a good chance of some beneficial rains for a good part of North Texas. Most of the rain will come from 7PM this evening through 7AM tomorrow morning, but showers during the day tomorrow cannot be ruled out. Heat levels will come down due to cloud cover and limited amounts of sun. Highs will be in the 94-98° range.
NEXT WEEK: We go back to heat advisory conditions for a brief period Monday afternoon, then a surface front bringing another chance of showers and storms moves through here late Tuesday afternoon. The latter half of the week will trend drier and cooler as a long wave upper trough evolves over the eastern third of the US. There is a chance we see drier, continental air during the latter half of the week with lower humidity and cooler nights. See the Texas Weather Discussion Video for more details.
DROUGHT MONITOR: The new drought monitor released yesterday morning shows most of the state in some kind of drought conditions, concentrated over parts of South Texas, expanding rapidly into west Texas. Places like Abilene have gone a full month without receiving measurable rainfall.
TROPICS: Tropical Depression Chantal is expected to dissipate over the Northern Atlantic within the next 24 hours. A tropical wave over the Bahamas now has a 50% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm over the next five days; it will move north, then northeast just off the Southeast US coast. No threat to the Gulf of Mexico.
After a drizzly, foggy, and mild day across much of North Texas, heavy rains will follow suite tomorrow afternoon through Thursday. Some spots of NTX could receive 1-2” of rain with isolated higher totals up to 4” possible, mainly north of DFW.
Temperatures will be mild tomorrow in the 70s, but Thursday will be much colder. Morning temperatures will start in the 60s before falling through the 40s in the afternoon with rain coming to an end from west to east. Lows Thursday night will be in the 30s, with highs Friday only in the 40s and 50s. Some patchy frost is possible.
The weekend will be warmer will highs rebounding into the 60s and possibly the 70s by Sunday. Dry weather is expected.
A strong front will roll into NTX sometime on Monday. The timing of this front is uncertain, but it appears likely for rather widespread precipitation. As the cold air settles in Monday into early Tuesday, we will watch for a threat of wintry precipitation. Right now, the forecast is uncertain on what happens during this timeframe. It does bear watching since some ensembles and models do hint at a more significant wintry weather event. Highs will be much colder Monday, likely falling through the day. Temperatures will likely be in the 20s Monday night, struggling to reach 40° by Tuesday with sunshine returning. Again, the overall pattern is uncertain. The set up does favor some sort of wintry precipitation, but exactly how cold it can get is very uncertain as of now. Therefore, opted to keep a very low chance of a wintry mix during this timeframe.
Stay tuned for updates the next few days as we get a better handle on this system.
A gradual warm up will take place later in the week, finally reaching the 50s by mid to late week. Dry weather is expected beyond Tuesday.
ANOTHER CLASSIC SUMMER DAY: This is honestly what we expect in summer in Texas. Another day of classic summer weather with lots of heat and humidity is expected with highs basically at the century mark. I know this is basically the same forecast over and over and over again, but I promise subtle change will come over time. But for now, another Heat Advisory remains in effect for this afternoon, so you can expect another afternoon with heat indices in the 105-110° range.
Not much change tomorrow. Although we might not quite hit the century mark tomorrow, the humidity levels will increase, so it will still feel just as hot as the past few days. Mostly sunny skies are still forecast.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: A weakness in the ridge will allow for a surface front to attempt to push through the region Friday night, when we will introduce a chance of isolated to scattered showers and storms beginning Friday evening, lasting through Saturday during the day. Not everyone will receive rainfall. Look for a mix of sun and clouds each day. Heat levels will be slightly lower due to increased cloud cover. Highs will be in the 95-99° range.
NEXT WEEK: We will briefly continue to maintain our hot pattern for the beginning part of next week as the upper high continues to dominate our region. There is evidence of a pattern shift for much of the Central Plains by the latter half of next week, which would allow a surface front to move through the region by Wednesday or Thursday, allowing for greater chances of rain and a cooling trend. But expect routine summer weather conditions before any of that. See the Texas Weather Discussion Video for more details.
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORMS IN THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC: Rapidly developed, Chantal is a tropical storm in the Northern Atlantic, away from land. It is expected to stay far away from any land, continuing to meander in the North Atlantic until it becomes post-tropical this weekend. The rest of the Atlantic Basin remains quiet.
SUMMER WEATHER CONTINUES: Look for hot and humid weather again today across North Texas with a partly sunny sky and afternoon temperatures in the 100° range. Like yesterday, the heat indices will be in the 105-110° range this afternoon with a nice, upper-level high parked right on top of us. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for most counties in North Texas. Some counties to the west have been trimmed away from the advisory, but just realize that everyone will remain very hot for the time being. The weather won't change much tomorrow as the classic summer pattern continues.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: The upper high pattern will still persist. However, weak impulses from the High Plains and parts of the Central Gulf Coast will keep much of the region dry for the rest of the work week. However, the abundance of the impulses will work to slowly weaken the ridge parked over us, and temperatures should fall in tandem to the weakness of the ridge. Highs will be in the upper 90s for Thursday and Friday, followed by mid 90s for the weekend. The weakness will allow for a surface front to drop into the region by Friday, allowing low chances of spotty showers and storms mainly Friday night through Saturday morning, but also during the day on Saturday. We stay mostly dry on Sunday, and each day should be filled with mostly sunny skies and subtle increasing cloud cover.
NEXT WEEK: The last week of August features seasonal temperatures with the main upper level ridge well to the west of us by Friday. Highs will be in the mid 90s all week, but we end up at around 90-93° by Friday with lows in the mid 70s. See the Texas Weather Discussion Video for more details.
After a beautiful Friday across North Texas, your Saturday will remain much of the same. Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s with partly cloudy skies. We warm up a bit by Sunday, into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Dry weather is expected for the weekend.
Things begin to change by Monday. A strong cold front will be located in the Midwest and northern/central plains, and will be progressing southward towards Texas throughout the day.
We will see somewhat of a setup for compressions warming, into the low to possibly mid 70s during the afternoon. A few isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop. No severe weather is expected, but small hail and gusty winds will be possible in a storm or two.
The front will be on top of DFW likely during the evening, and a strong upper level low will be moving out of the Baja of California/far southern four corners region. As it does so, temperatures will be falling into the middle 30s with widespread showers. At this point, some snow may begin to mix in as well as sleet. There may be a chance of a complete changeover to snow showers through the morning hours on Tuesday. The European is the most aggressive on this solution, keeping snow around into the early afternoon with temperatures struggling to get out of the 30s. The GFS is a bit more progressive, and has some wintry weather around 4am till around 10am before moving out, allowing us to reach the low to mid 40s during the afternoon. The European solution would favor a low chance of some accumulation as well on grassy surfaces of up to 1/2” of an inch. The GFS has no accumulation. For now, will side with the GFS and have a chance of a rain/snow mix Tuesday morning with no accumulation threat.
The key takeaway from all of this is: WE WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THE ENTIRE TIME! This should keep road impacts to a minimal. Also, keep in mind we are still 3-4 days out and a lot can change. This is NOT set and stone, but just be mindful that there may be a chance for some snow on Tuesday.
We will gradually reach the 50s by later next week, with another weak front arriving for the weekend, keeping cool temperatures with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.
NOT AS HOT: As advertised, heat levels are slightly down over parts of the state this morning. Temperatures are only in the mid to upper 70s this morning, which is a big contrast from yesterday morning. We will mention temperatures right at seasonal averages for this time of the year with highs in the upper 90s with a mostly sunny sky.
TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Winds will turn south today and tomorrow, drawing in rich moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Combine that with the already high temperatures and humidity levels and we will likely bring back hotter days with oppressive heat indices for the weekend and beyond to serve as a friendly reminder that we are still in the middle of the dog days of summer. Highs will mostly be in the upper 90s for all three days with overnight lows in the low 80s.
NEXT WEEK: The overall pattern favors several days of Heat Advisory conditions for much of the region. The same hot, humid, and dry weather conditions continue for much of next week with little to no change in the forecast. See the Texas Weather Discussion Video for more details.
TROPICS: Although tropical cyclone development is not expected through next week, we are watching a potential system that may try to make a run in the Gulf and try to stir some trouble next week. However, confidence is too low to warrant any chances of development. The rest of the Atlantic Basin remains quiet.
RADAR CHECK: As advertised, a surface front bringing the chance of scattered showers and storms is moving through parts of North Texas, mainly moving to the northeast. The most you will get out of these is lightning and heavy rain, and no severe weather is expected. Most of these storms will likely dissipate by the afternoon hours today.
The front will continue to push slowly south through the rest of Texas today and tomorrow, and drier air moves into the state later today, and the day should feature a mix of mostly clouds and sun with highs in the mid 90s with just a tad lower humidity levels.
We dry out tomorrow, it will be a mostly sunny day with lower humidity and slightly lower temperatures. Highs will be in the mid 90s with a very calm southeasterly wind.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The weather is looking dry with mostly sunny days and fair nights. Highs will be mostly in the upper 90s, with nighttime temperatures somewhat cooler with early morning lows in the mid to upper 70s.
NEXT WEEK: Dry weather will continue throughout most of the week, but highs will hold right at seasonal averages for this time of the year as moisture levels rise. See the Texas Weather Discussion Video for more details.
TROPICS: Atlantic Basin stays very quiet this week, and no new tropical cyclones are expected.
WARM MORNING: Temperatures are generally in the 82-85° across most places in the region this morning with mostly fair skies. We have some good, soaking rain in Oklahoma and around Wichita Falls this morning. It is moving slowly; and will dissipate during the late afternoon/evening.
ONE MORE VERY HOT DAY: A "Heat Advisory" remains in effect for all of North Texas today. Temperatures won't be much different from the past couple of days; highs should be in the 100 degree range, but humidity values past 50% could push heat indices to around 110° again this afternoon. The record high for DFW today is 105° set in 1951, which should be safe. The average high for August 13 is 97°.
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY: A surface front will approach tonight, and isolated to scattered showers and storms could invade our northern counties as early as this late afternoon/evening. Then, tomorrow morning, we will have a good chance of scattered showers and storms for a good portion of the region. Understand that we can not promise rain for everyone, but any one spot stands a 40/50 percent chance of getting wet, especially during the pre-dawn hours. We also note that the SPC has a "marginal risk" of severe storms (level 1 of 5) defined for the DFW Metroplex and points to the north; some of the storms could produce wet microbursts and strong, gusty winds.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: The surface front is expected to make it all the way to South Texas tomorrow night, and it looks like much of the stay will be dry for Thursday through the weekend. This means mostly sunny skies, lower humidity levels, and cooler nights. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s, and lows in the upper 70s.
NEXT WEEK: The upper high pattern rebuilds over North Texas next week, but will not be as strong as it is now. Highs will be in the upper 90s with lows in the upper 70s/low 80s.
TROPICS: The Atlantic Basin remains quiet once again, and tropical storm formation is not expected through the week. There are only two occasions that the Atlantic has had zero named storms between July 15 and August 15: 1999 and 2015. 1999 was still an above-average season while 2015 was below average.
ALREADY FEELS LIKE A SPRING AFTERNOON: Temperatures are mostly in the middle 80s this morning across North Texas, which would probably be our high temperature if we were in April. We project highs to be above 100° again for the region with heat indices around the 110° area. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all of North Texas, but an Excessive Heat Watch is in effect for the DFW Metroplex and for areas to the east of US 281. How today goes will determine if we stick with a Heat Advisory or issue an Excessive Heat Warning for some areas.
Not much change is expected tomorrow. We will be a few degrees hotter with highs around mid triple digit range.
MIDWEEK: A mid-August cold front sweeps through here by late Tuesday night, which will bring the chance of scattered showers and storms through Wednesday morning. Not everyone will see rain, as the best chance of a spot getting wet is only one in three. But the good news is we will not be baking as much. Highs will be in the mid 90s for a couple of days, which is near our seasonal averages.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Unfortunately, we will go back to our same prolonged hot and dry pattern as before, except the upper-level high will not be as strong as it is now. It will still be very oppressive with highs in the upper 90s, but dewpoints will make it feel like 100-105°. Another Heat Advisory will likely be needed to address this potential.
NEXT WEEK: Another week of prolonged hot and dry weather is expected with highs in the upper 90s for most of the week with overnight lows in the upper 70s. We begin to cool down towards the end of the month with temperatures regularly in the mid to low 90s. See the Texas Weather Discussion Video for more details.
MUST BE AUGUST IN NORTH TEXAS: Looks like the atmosphere will sure bring some classic summer weather across North Texas this week. Most days will begin with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s in the mornings. Then, as the atmosphere begins to heat, and the humidity values increase, we will have heat indices around 100-110° this week across the region.
Today, we will only be one or two degrees cooler than yesterday, but heat index values will be well in the triple digits. We could see some isolated showers over the southeastern half of the region, but the best chance of one spot getting wet is only one in three for that area. The high will be close to 98° for many areas today.
I firmly believe that tomorrow will be the most uncomfortable day out the entire week as humidity increases and winds stay very light and variable. We will broad brush the forecast with classic summer conditions for the rest of the week; hot, humid days with highs near the 100° mark with heat indices around 105-110°. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed to address these heat levels. Overnight lows will mostly be in the low 80s with a fair sky.
THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND: For the beginning part of next week, we will roll with a persistent summer weather forecast. There is a chance of a cold front by midweek, which may keep us in the upper 90s for the rest of the week.
TROPICS: We are getting into the climatological peak of the hurricane season, which is typically during the months of August and September. However, the Atlantic Basin continues to remain very quiet, and tropical storm formation is not expected this week.
*no Texas Weather Discussion Video today*
CALM MORNING: Temperatures are currently in the upper 70s across the region this morning, with Dallas Love Field already reporting 80° at 5:00 AM this morning. We continue to forecast hot and humid summer weather, and highs will be around 95° this afternoon. Another round of scattered showers is possible this afternoon. The highest coverage of rain will come from around 2PM - 4PM today, and the best chance of one spot getting wet is only one in three.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: We trend drier and warmer with mostly sunny skies and a few clouds. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 90s with a light southerly wind. Overnight lows will be in the upper 70s.
REST OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND: Not much change. The upper high pattern takes over again, and we will subsequently forecast highs near the 100° for all of the days. With humidity in the 45-50% range for most of the area, heat index values will reach the 105-110° for many locations. A Heat Advisory will be needed to address this potential midweek through the weekend through the early parts of next week.
NEXT WEEK: The early parts of next week will feature the same 100° weather, but a cold front comes through Tuesday night, and highs will only reach the mid 90s on Wednesday as a result. Most of next week will feature seasonal weather with mostly sunny skies.
TROPICS: The Atlantic Basin remains very quiet, and no new tropical cyclones are expected to develop this week.
STILL HOT: We are not entirely doomed today, however, as only a couple of spots are reporting low 80s this morning. Most are reporting mid to upper 70s, which is very seasonal for this time of the year. We will continue to have another hot, dry day with highs in the upper 90s once again. A few spots may reach the triple digit mark again this afternoon.
THE WEEKEND: An early August front will bring in cooler temperatures for the weekend and early next week followed by a chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially during the evening hours on Saturday. However, I believe that there will be a hidden chance of isolated showers for most of the afternoon hours on Saturday. Some of the storms could be on the strong side, as the SPC has outlined "marginal risk" (level 1/5) of severe storms for much of the North-Central Texas region for Saturday evening/early Sunday morning.
The best chance to look for isolated showers and thunderstorms will be during the evening hours on Saturday. Some of the more scattered/widespread rain will happen during the pre-dawn hours Sunday. Some rain will continue into Sunday afternoon, but we should be mostly dry by 3PM. Highs for the weekend will be in the low 90s with a mix of sun and clouds throughout the day.
NEXT WEEK: The first two days will feature highs below mid 90s, which is below our seasonal averages. We transition back to mostly sunny skies, hot and humid conditions, and highs near the 100 degree mark by mid-week. See the Texas Weather Discussion Video for more details.
TROPICS: There is an open wave in the southern Atlantic that only has a 40% chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next five days. Upper level winds will not favor any further development. The rest of the Atlantic Basin remains quiet.
HOT, QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES: We continue to project mostly sunny skies and hot and humid weather conditions for the rest of the work week. Highs both days will be around the 100° mark during the early afternoon hours. Some mid-level cloud cover is possible on Friday, but will probably not mitigate any heat.
THE WEEKEND: We find a bit of relief this weekend when a summertime front moves through the region during the morning on Saturday. We will have to introduce the chance of isolated showers and storms Friday during the overnight hours beginning for our counties near and along the Red River area moving south through Saturday morning. Isolated showers and storms will persist throughout the day before becoming more widely scattered on Sunday. Highs both days will be in the 92-95° range with overnight lows in the low 70s. Some of the cooler spots may reach the upper 60s.
NEXT WEEK: Not much change. We remain mostly dry throughout the week with highs basically near the 100 degree mark all throughout the week. See the Texas Weather Discussion Video for more details.