Forecast Discussion Blog - 12/6/2019

After a beautiful Friday across North Texas, your Saturday will remain much of the same. Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s with partly cloudy skies. We warm up a bit by Sunday, into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Dry weather is expected for the weekend.

Things begin to change by Monday. A strong cold front will be located in the Midwest and northern/central plains, and will be progressing southward towards Texas throughout the day.

We will see somewhat of a setup for compressions warming, into the low to possibly mid 70s during the afternoon. A few isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop. No severe weather is expected, but small hail and gusty winds will be possible in a storm or two.

The front will be on top of DFW likely during the evening, and a strong upper level low will be moving out of the Baja of California/far southern four corners region. As it does so, temperatures will be falling into the middle 30s with widespread showers. At this point, some snow may begin to mix in as well as sleet. There may be a chance of a complete changeover to snow showers through the morning hours on Tuesday. The European is the most aggressive on this solution, keeping snow around into the early afternoon with temperatures struggling to get out of the 30s. The GFS is a bit more progressive, and has some wintry weather around 4am till around 10am before moving out, allowing us to reach the low to mid 40s during the afternoon. The European solution would favor a low chance of some accumulation as well on grassy surfaces of up to 1/2” of an inch. The GFS has no accumulation. For now, will side with the GFS and have a chance of a rain/snow mix Tuesday morning with no accumulation threat.

The key takeaway from all of this is: WE WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THE ENTIRE TIME! This should keep road impacts to a minimal. Also, keep in mind we are still 3-4 days out and a lot can change. This is NOT set and stone, but just be mindful that there may be a chance for some snow on Tuesday.

We will gradually reach the 50s by later next week, with another weak front arriving for the weekend, keeping cool temperatures with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.