RADAR CHECK: Most of the showers and thunderstorms have pushed out of the North-Central Texas region this morning, leaving only a cluster of thunderstorms just south of the Red River. We do note that those storms have triggered a Flash Flood Warning to be posted for a portion of Cooke and Grayson counties until 11:00 AM this morning.
For the coverage area this afternoon, I expect mostly dry conditions with a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the middle 70s. However, I can not rule out the potential for a stray thunderstorm or two. Most of our potential third round of heavy rain and strong to severe storms will come during the overnight hours, however.
SEVERE RISK FOR MOST OF NORTH AND WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT: Current surface analysis reveals a surface low over southwestern Kansas with a quasi-stationary front stretching down to the south across west Texas, extending further to the east across North-Central Texas. The warm sector is characterized by dewpoints in the middle to upper 60s with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 70s in most spots this afternoon. The rich boundary layer in the Big Country combined with daytime heating instability (especially with the sun being out) will cause a risk of severe weather this afternoon and evening for northwest and north-central Texas.
The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has an "enhanced risk" (level 3/5) of severe storms for most of the Big Country and for areas generally north and west of I-35W. The standard "slight risk" (level 2/5) runs through the DFW Metroplex, generally surrounding the Enhanced Risk for about 100 miles apart. Lastly, a "marginal risk" (level 1 of 5) runs through the rest of the North Texas area, extending down towards Central Texas.
TIMING: Most of the development will take place along the dryline in West Texas at around 5-6PM. The any discrete storm will consolidate into an MCS (mesoscale convective system) later overnight. The severe risk in the North Texas region will run from about 9PM-12AM, with the risk of heavy rain running from midnight to the pre-dawn hours.
THREATS: All modes of severe weather will be possible, just like yesterday night. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary risk. However, a couple of tornadoes will be possible, like what we saw in Throckmorton yesterday afternoon. There is still a little bit of uncertainty regarding the extent of the spread of heavy during the early morning hours. One of the mesoscale models keeps most of the activity confined to North Texas, while one of them keeps the rain widespread through North and Central Texas. Nonetheless, please keep in mind that North Texas has the best chance of severe with heavy rain chances, which may lead to localized flooding.
TOMORROW: The threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will continue tomorrow for our northeastern counties as activity develops from a remnant outflow boundary. Associated lift should support the threat for large hail and damaging winds for those zones. Flooding will be a continued issue in already saturated areas.
FRIDAY: Things cool off considerably Friday with a cold front pushing southward late Thursday night into Friday with highs in the 50s and 60s. An upstream shortwave will approach from the south, which will add another chance of showers and thunderstorms which should affect our southernmost counties. Flooding should not be much of concern by that point.
We should get a break from the rain Saturday and for most of Sunday with highs in the mid 50s. We will see mostly sunny skies Saturday followed by cloudiness on Sunday.
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The cold front has stalled to our south and east, and temperatures in DFW have fallen into the 50s. A couple thunderstorms have developed east of DFW along the boundary. A few storms will likely develop in DFW later this evening into the overnight, and a few could be strong with frequent lightning and heavy rain. Coverage will only be 40% or so.
Tomorrow will be a cool day with highs in the 60s. Scattered showers and a few t-storms will be possible through the day, but no severe storms are anticipated. As the warm front lifts northward Sunday night, widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop with near an 80% chance of rain. Some of these could turn strong with hail or some gusty winds, but the severe risk remains very low. Below is the European model for late tomorrow evening/early overnight.
Monday morning will have storms around, but we should see some dry weather around midday before redeveloping thunderstorms are likely during peak heating. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s. No severe weather is expected.
Dry weather is anticipated Monday night with temperatures in the 60s. However, a few showers or sprinkles aren't ruled out.
By Tuesday, the first wave of energy will approach West Texas during the afternoon. Strong to possibly severe storms could develop, and these will be watched as they march eastward. These storms will turn into a squall line, and will make a run at DFW & North Texas late Tuesday night. If it can make the trip, a strong or severe storm with damaging winds and heavy rain will be possible. The level of certainty is very low regarding this timeframe, and we should have a better idea by Monday. The best chance will be in our western counties.
After a few potential morning t-storms on Wednesday, a couple afternoon storms could develop during the afternoon. This will be a timeframe to watch for some severe storms once again, with hail or wind likely being the main threat. Another squall line could develop in West Texas and will make a run at North Texas once again Wednesday evening and night. If it makes it, some strong or severe storms will be possible. These may last into Thursday morning, and this will have a large affect on Thursday afternoon.
Dependent on the speed of the dryline on Thursday and how much destabilization we can have, severe thunderstorms may fire up during the afternoon along the dryline. The best chance will be east of I/35. This potential will be watched the next few days. Stay tuned as we refine the details to this weeks forecast the next few days.
Friday will be drier and cooler with highs in the 60s. A strong cold front may move in late in the day and highs could be in the 50s and 60s on Saturday with a chance of scattered rain showers. Severe weather would be very unlikely during this time due to a chillier pattern in place.
Widespread storms rolled in this morning with some severe in DFW, producing damaging winds and hail around 10-11am this morning. However, all of that has moved out and most have been left with a cloudy and mild afternoon. The exception is our northwestern zones where some storms have redeveloped but are currently below severe limits. An enhanced risk of severe storms is in place in far West Texas, where supercellular development is expected within the next few hours. All modes of severe weather will be possible, and this is actually a key to the forecast tonight. These storms will tend to cluster up and will make a run for North Texas. These should stay just N/W of DFW, where a few isolated strong or severe storms will be possible embedded in the clusters. Hail or wind will be the main threat.
This is all associated with a cold front that is stalled across the area now that will lift northward overnight. It will re-approach the region tomorrow afternoon, and showers & thunderstorms will quickly fire up by afternoon with near a 40-50% coverage. A couple of these may turn strong or maybe severe with 1000-2000 instability and some shear in place. Main risk will be large hail. Severe risk right now overall appears low. Best chances are east of I/35.
Sunday looks like the calmest of the next seven, with only isolated showers and storms expected. Nothing severe or widespread. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s.
Monday will have widespread storms, mainly in the morning hours. Some of these could be strong with hail or gusty winds. Severe threat looks quite low. Scattered storms will likely redevelop in the afternoon. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s once again.
Tuesday will have numerous thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon hours. Ingredients may be in place for some severe storms, but this part of the forecast is uncertain. We should get some refinement on that the next few days. Highs will be in the upper 70s. A very similar forecast is in place on Wednesday, and there may be some severe weather once again. We will see how this first wave evolves the next few days. Highs will be in the upper 70s as well on Wednesday.
Thursday looks to be the main show storm wise and severe weather wise. A dynamic system will aid in the development of afternoon and evening storms, and a rather significant severe weather event may evolve somewhere in the plains in the warm sector, with snow/wintry precip in the cold sector. (central and northern plains) This is six days out and will change. Highs Thursday will be near 80° or so.
We should dry out by Friday with dry weather next weekend.
Skies this morning are partly to mostly cloudy, and this will remain the same through the day. We may see a brief stint of more adequate sunshine around midday before some clouds build this afternoon. Some showers & thunderstorms are likely to develop, but coverage will not be great. More details below.
After 2-3pm, isolated-scattered t-storms will develop along an eastward moving dryline. Strong surface based instability and buoyancy will combine with strong vertical shear and steep lapse rates in excess of 7.5 C°/KM. Near straight hodographs and SHR beyond 200 m2/s2 will likely mean splitting supercell potential in a few storms this afternoon. All these ingredients will lead to a risk of strong to possibly severe t-storms this afternoon. Main risk will be large hail greater than 1.5" in diameter, but mixing of the boundary layer may allow for damaging downburst winds in the stronger cells up to 70mph. However, a strong southwest flow ahead of the boundary with weaker shear towards the surface and winds on each layer/level being more unidirectional will greatly hamper the tornado risk this afternoon. But, if stronger low level shear is present with the first wave of energy approaching from the west of this afternoon, then an slightly increased tornado risk will exist mainly east of I/35. Therefore, an isolated tornado isn't ruled out, but it is rather unlikely.
The frontal boundary itself will hang around tonight and tomorrow, and waves of showers and storms are likely. A few "squall lines" of storms are likely tomorrow, and a couple storms may turn severe with mainly some hail. The severe risk tomorrow is low but not zero. Rain coverage will be near 70-80% tomorrow. Highs will be pretty tough, 50s/60s north of the boundary and 70s south. DFW will likely be in the mid/upper 60s but this aspect of the forecast can bust very easily.
Either way, the boundary will lift north on Saturday with mainly dry weather the first half of the day with scattered showers & storms likely during the afternoon. Greater instability and shear combined with dews in excess of 65°+ will allow for a severe risk. Main risks will be large hail and/or damaging wind gusts. Coverage will be near 60%. Highs will be in the upper 70s.
Sunday will be a bit cooler with highs in the 60s and scattered showers and storms will be likely once again, but no severe storms are expected. Coverage will be near 40%.
A large scale storm system will approach Monday and Tuesday, and another front will be hanging around with the dryline stationed out west. T-Storms are likely both days, and a few could be severe with ingredients in place. Several more pieces of energy will continue to ride the jet stream with a strong flow. This will allow for continued storm chances mid to late next week with severe storms and heavy rain being a possibility.
I'm sure if you've been outside today, you can tell it's warm and rather humid out. This is all in advance of our next storm system, first of many rather. Storm chances rise tomorrow, but I do want to mention a very low 10% chance of a storm developing this evening. A rather unstable atmosphere is in place, but little to no lift is present. But it's not impossible for a storm to develop, and if it does so it could become severe with large hail. Most, if not all will be dry tonight.
The first wave of energy will move in later tomorrow afternoon, and a couple storms will likely develop after 2-3pm. This will accompany a dryline and cold front, and additional storms will develop through the evening. These storms will have a potential to turn severe quickly with large hail and damaging winds as the main threats, but an isolated tornado or two is possible. Storm chances tomorrow are 40-50%, with highs in the middle 80s.
By Friday morning, an area of showers and storms will be moving in and this will last through most of the afternoon. Some of these will also have a threat to turn severe, mainly with damaging winds or hail. Highs will be in the low 70s, with 60s north and upper 70s south of DFW.
All of that clears out Friday evening and mainly dry weather is expected Friday night despite a few isolated showers or thunderstorms hanging around. A warm front will lift north though the area, and temperatures will stay in the mid to upper 60s overnight.
On Saturday, a few storms will be possible in the morning mainly north and west of DFW. These will send a boundary to the I/35 corridor during the afternoon, and scattered thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon. With increasing surface instability in excess of 1500-2000 J/kg combining with strong vertical shear, some strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible once again Saturday afternoon. Main threats appears to be large hail and damaging wind gusts. Highs will be in the upper 70s. These will move east of the area Saturday night with cloudy skies.
On Sunday, the forecast is a bit complicated. Dependent on the placement of the boundary, highs will likely be in the 70s with ANOTHER chance of afternoon showers & thunderstorms. Instability and shear looks to be weaker than previous days, however a strong or severe storm with hail still appears within the realm of possibility.
The forecast really remains the same on Monday, with a chance of scattered strong storms in the afternoon with the severe potential being rather low, but not zero. Highs will be in the mid 70s.
On Tuesday & Wednesday, a more dynamic set up with a boundary along with a dryline and surface low will set up across the Plains each afternoon. This will allow for scattered to widespread thunderstorms both afternoons, and severe weather appears possible with strong shear and sufficient instability. With all the rain that is likely the next several days, flooding will be a concern especially next week with periods of heavy rain and strong storms possible. Stay tuned for updates.
But yes, all in all a very active pattern is in place and I do see a sign of cooler and drier weather towards mid month. (later next week)
A nice weekend is coming to an end unfortunately. The workweek looks wet, and your Monday morning commute will likely have some frustrations for many.
A weak upper level low will transverse the area late tonight into tomorrow, and scattered to widespread showers will develop. Some pockets of moderate to heavy rain will be possible, the best chance will be north of I/20. Only a 20-30% chance of rain exists south of DFW, with 40-60% locally with near 80% rain chances along the Red River. No severe weather is expected. In fact, no storms are really expected.
We will see some sunshine in the afternoon with highs reaching the middle 70s. A weak cold front may try to slip in Monday night, but will have to battle strong southerly winds. The cold front at this time isn't expected to make it into the area, and no rain is foreseen Monday night.
The boundary will float around S Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon, where some forcing and lift will be. This will be the time to watch for a few isolated storms to attempt to develop Tuesday evening into the early overnight. IF storms can manage to develop, the main threat would be large hail. Increasing instability near 1500-2000 J/kg combining with increasingly strong mid level winds and deep layer shear will aid in that severe potential. It's uncertain if any storms can develop. The best chance is in the highlighted area, where a 20-30% chance of storms exists.
By Wednesday, a very weak disturbance (known as a ripple in the upper levels) will push the dryline into our western counties. A little lift combined with warm air advection will aid in a few storms to develop in the afternoon, and once again the combination of 2000 J/kg of instability at the surface and strong deep layer shear will allow for a couple stronger storms. The main threat will be strong winds and large hail. Coverage will be 20-30% once again. So main takeaway from Tuesday and Wednesday is any storm development is conditional, but if they do develop they could be severe. Stay tuned for more info. Highs both days will b in the low 80s.
Thursday will have a similar forecast, except perhaps a slightly greater chance of storms. A few storms, once again, could approach severe limits with sufficient instability and shear. None of these severe risks are overwhelming, but there will be that daily storm and low severe risk. Highs will be in the upper 70s and low 80s. Storm chances will be near 30-40%.
Friday by far is the most interesting day. A few early morning showers and thunderstorms will lift north of the area by mid morning, and destabilization will take place for much of the morning and afternoon hours. A strongly defined warm sector with dewpoints exceeding 65°+ for much of the area. Instability will be over 1500 J/kg for much of the area, and shear looks quite impressive. Models have continued to signal winds backed to the south and east and becoming directional at several levels. These ingredients typically can lead to a more significant severe weather threat as the dryline approaches during the afternoon. Remember, it is Sunday and we are talking about Friday. Several things can and will change, but stay tuned as an active week is in store for us. A cold front should overtake everything by Saturday, and a few storms may accompany it mainly in Central Texas. The main system will have rotated mainly east of the area, so shear will be limited. Therefore, despite decent projected instability, the severe weather threat would appear to be very low. The forecast beyond Saturday is uncertain, as the GFS suggests the front becomes stalled and lifts north as a warm front Sunday and more storm chances will last into next week, while the ECMWF takes a long time for southerly flow to return to North Texas. We will see how this aspect of the forecast evolves over the next few days.
After a nice but humid second half of the weekend, rain chances rapidly pick up this week with a front and a strong upper level low.
TO START OFF - A warm night is in store for North Texas, with lows in the low to mid 60s for much of the area. A few 50s will be likely as well with mostly cloudy skies. The subtropical jet is noticeable across North TX right now, as it is bisecting the area. When you look to the south, do you see the strong cut off in clouds? It is because that is where the subtropical jet is located, which our storm system will ride the next few days.
TOMORROW (Monday) - A cold front will be moving into the northern half of the area during the late afternoon (likely northern Denton/Collin Co. by 3-5pm or so. We will watch as this front moves into the DFW metroplex for a few isolated strong to severe storms to develop. Latest guidance has suggested a greater amount of instability and shear will be present, so we will watch for any development to turn severe. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s, with upper 60s north of DFW and a few areas could push 80° south of I/20. I've raised storm chances to 40% for areas near Interstate 20 during the afternoon hours. Main threat (if storms develop) would be large hail and damaging wind gusts. Remember, this threat is conditional and depends on an EML inversion along with the extent of the lift/placement of the boundary.
Monday Night - Overall, I think besides a few evening strong storms we should be dry overnight. It's certainly possible for a shower or two, but most will remain dry. Lows will be in the middle 50s.
Tuesday/Tuesday Night - This is the more complicated of them all. Tuesday should be fairly dry until 5pm at least. A few isolated showers and storms could be around during the afternoon, but most should be dry with highs pushing 70° for the metroplex, with areas north in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Low 70s common in our southern zones. It's also possible for a bit of sunshine for areas near and south of I/20 and east of I/35 Tuesday afternoon. After Tuesday PM, everything becomes really complicated. The cold front that pushes through will likely get stalled in our southern and southeastern zones. This is a possibility - It lifts back to the north and pushes 60°+ dewpoints back into North Texas, especially south of I/20. Severe weather would then be a threat for the metroplex and areas to the south. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main risks as storms move in late Tuesday evening into the early overnight. Another, more likely scenario would be the warm front stays south of the area, therefore the severe risk does as well, but widespread showers and storms (a few could still be strong) would be likely Tuesday night through Wednesday. Stay updated with us as a very uncertain forecast is in play Tuesday night.
Wednesday will feature widespread showers and even a few thunderstorms with temperatures falling as a second push of cooler air comes in. Highs will be in the 50s. Rain will continue into Wednesday night, tapering off by daybreak Thursday.
ONE THING WE ARE CERTAIN OF - Very heavy rain will be possible in many storms, and widespread 2-3" of rain is likely with a corridor of 3-4" possible especially along I/20. Things will dry out by Thursday with highs in the upper 60s.
Dry weather is expected Friday and Saturday, but our next storm system arrives by Sunday with showers and storms possible for Sunday into early next week.