Lots of rain coming to North Texas!

Skies this morning are partly to mostly cloudy, and this will remain the same through the day. We may see a brief stint of more adequate sunshine around midday before some clouds build this afternoon. Some showers & thunderstorms are likely to develop, but coverage will not be great. More details below.

After 2-3pm, isolated-scattered t-storms will develop along an eastward moving dryline. Strong surface based instability and buoyancy will combine with strong vertical shear and steep lapse rates in excess of 7.5 C°/KM. Near straight hodographs and SHR beyond 200 m2/s2 will likely mean splitting supercell potential in a few storms this afternoon. All these ingredients will lead to a risk of strong to possibly severe t-storms this afternoon. Main risk will be large hail greater than 1.5" in diameter, but mixing of the boundary layer may allow for damaging downburst winds in the stronger cells up to 70mph. However, a strong southwest flow ahead of the boundary with weaker shear towards the surface and winds on each layer/level being more unidirectional will greatly hamper the tornado risk this afternoon. But, if stronger low level shear is present with the first wave of energy approaching from the west of this afternoon, then an slightly increased tornado risk will exist mainly east of I/35. Therefore, an isolated tornado isn't ruled out, but it is rather unlikely.

The frontal boundary itself will hang around tonight and tomorrow, and waves of showers and storms are likely. A few "squall lines" of storms are likely tomorrow, and a couple storms may turn severe with mainly some hail. The severe risk tomorrow is low but not zero. Rain coverage will be near 70-80% tomorrow. Highs will be pretty tough, 50s/60s north of the boundary and 70s south. DFW will likely be in the mid/upper 60s but this aspect of the forecast can bust very easily.

Either way, the boundary will lift north on Saturday with mainly dry weather the first half of the day with scattered showers & storms likely during the afternoon. Greater instability and shear combined with dews in excess of 65°+ will allow for a severe risk. Main risks will be large hail and/or damaging wind gusts. Coverage will be near 60%. Highs will be in the upper 70s.

Sunday will be a bit cooler with highs in the 60s and scattered showers and storms will be likely once again, but no severe storms are expected. Coverage will be near 40%.

A large scale storm system will approach Monday and Tuesday, and another front will be hanging around with the dryline stationed out west. T-Storms are likely both days, and a few could be severe with ingredients in place. Several more pieces of energy will continue to ride the jet stream with a strong flow. This will allow for continued storm chances mid to late next week with severe storms and heavy rain being a possibility.

​Logan Shipley