Severe Storms Possible Next Few Days...

I'm sure if you've been outside today, you can tell it's warm and rather humid out. This is all in advance of our next storm system, first of many rather. Storm chances rise tomorrow, but I do want to mention a very low 10% chance of a storm developing this evening. A rather unstable atmosphere is in place, but little to no lift is present. But it's not impossible for a storm to develop, and if it does so it could become severe with large hail. Most, if not all will be dry tonight.

The first wave of energy will move in later tomorrow afternoon, and a couple storms will likely develop after 2-3pm. This will accompany a dryline and cold front, and additional storms will develop through the evening. These storms will have a potential to turn severe quickly with large hail and damaging winds as the main threats, but an isolated tornado or two is possible. Storm chances tomorrow are 40-50%, with highs in the middle 80s.

By Friday morning, an area of showers and storms will be moving in and this will last through most of the afternoon. Some of these will also have a threat to turn severe, mainly with damaging winds or hail. Highs will be in the low 70s, with 60s north and upper 70s south of DFW.

All of that clears out Friday evening and mainly dry weather is expected Friday night despite a few isolated showers or thunderstorms hanging around. A warm front will lift north though the area, and temperatures will stay in the mid to upper 60s overnight.

On Saturday, a few storms will be possible in the morning mainly north and west of DFW. These will send a boundary to the I/35 corridor during the afternoon, and scattered thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon. With increasing surface instability in excess of 1500-2000 J/kg combining with strong vertical shear, some strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible once again Saturday afternoon. Main threats appears to be large hail and damaging wind gusts. Highs will be in the upper 70s. These will move east of the area Saturday night with cloudy skies.

On Sunday, the forecast is a bit complicated. Dependent on the placement of the boundary, highs will likely be in the 70s with ANOTHER chance of afternoon showers & thunderstorms. Instability and shear looks to be weaker than previous days, however a strong or severe storm with hail still appears within the realm of possibility.

The forecast really remains the same on Monday, with a chance of scattered strong storms in the afternoon with the severe potential being rather low, but not zero. Highs will be in the mid 70s.

On Tuesday & Wednesday, a more dynamic set up with a boundary along with a dryline and surface low will set up across the Plains each afternoon. This will allow for scattered to widespread thunderstorms both afternoons, and severe weather appears possible with strong shear and sufficient instability. With all the rain that is likely the next several days, flooding will be a concern especially next week with periods of heavy rain and strong storms possible. Stay tuned for updates.

But yes, all in all a very active pattern is in place and I do see a sign of cooler and drier weather towards mid month. (later next week)

​Logan Shipley