A nice weekend is coming to an end unfortunately. The workweek looks wet, and your Monday morning commute will likely have some frustrations for many.
A weak upper level low will transverse the area late tonight into tomorrow, and scattered to widespread showers will develop. Some pockets of moderate to heavy rain will be possible, the best chance will be north of I/20. Only a 20-30% chance of rain exists south of DFW, with 40-60% locally with near 80% rain chances along the Red River. No severe weather is expected. In fact, no storms are really expected.
We will see some sunshine in the afternoon with highs reaching the middle 70s. A weak cold front may try to slip in Monday night, but will have to battle strong southerly winds. The cold front at this time isn't expected to make it into the area, and no rain is foreseen Monday night.
The boundary will float around S Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon, where some forcing and lift will be. This will be the time to watch for a few isolated storms to attempt to develop Tuesday evening into the early overnight. IF storms can manage to develop, the main threat would be large hail. Increasing instability near 1500-2000 J/kg combining with increasingly strong mid level winds and deep layer shear will aid in that severe potential. It's uncertain if any storms can develop. The best chance is in the highlighted area, where a 20-30% chance of storms exists.
By Wednesday, a very weak disturbance (known as a ripple in the upper levels) will push the dryline into our western counties. A little lift combined with warm air advection will aid in a few storms to develop in the afternoon, and once again the combination of 2000 J/kg of instability at the surface and strong deep layer shear will allow for a couple stronger storms. The main threat will be strong winds and large hail. Coverage will be 20-30% once again. So main takeaway from Tuesday and Wednesday is any storm development is conditional, but if they do develop they could be severe. Stay tuned for more info. Highs both days will b in the low 80s.
Thursday will have a similar forecast, except perhaps a slightly greater chance of storms. A few storms, once again, could approach severe limits with sufficient instability and shear. None of these severe risks are overwhelming, but there will be that daily storm and low severe risk. Highs will be in the upper 70s and low 80s. Storm chances will be near 30-40%.
Friday by far is the most interesting day. A few early morning showers and thunderstorms will lift north of the area by mid morning, and destabilization will take place for much of the morning and afternoon hours. A strongly defined warm sector with dewpoints exceeding 65°+ for much of the area. Instability will be over 1500 J/kg for much of the area, and shear looks quite impressive. Models have continued to signal winds backed to the south and east and becoming directional at several levels. These ingredients typically can lead to a more significant severe weather threat as the dryline approaches during the afternoon. Remember, it is Sunday and we are talking about Friday. Several things can and will change, but stay tuned as an active week is in store for us. A cold front should overtake everything by Saturday, and a few storms may accompany it mainly in Central Texas. The main system will have rotated mainly east of the area, so shear will be limited. Therefore, despite decent projected instability, the severe weather threat would appear to be very low. The forecast beyond Saturday is uncertain, as the GFS suggests the front becomes stalled and lifts north as a warm front Sunday and more storm chances will last into next week, while the ECMWF takes a long time for southerly flow to return to North Texas. We will see how this aspect of the forecast evolves over the next few days.