After a nice but humid second half of the weekend, rain chances rapidly pick up this week with a front and a strong upper level low.
TO START OFF - A warm night is in store for North Texas, with lows in the low to mid 60s for much of the area. A few 50s will be likely as well with mostly cloudy skies. The subtropical jet is noticeable across North TX right now, as it is bisecting the area. When you look to the south, do you see the strong cut off in clouds? It is because that is where the subtropical jet is located, which our storm system will ride the next few days.
TOMORROW (Monday) - A cold front will be moving into the northern half of the area during the late afternoon (likely northern Denton/Collin Co. by 3-5pm or so. We will watch as this front moves into the DFW metroplex for a few isolated strong to severe storms to develop. Latest guidance has suggested a greater amount of instability and shear will be present, so we will watch for any development to turn severe. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s, with upper 60s north of DFW and a few areas could push 80° south of I/20. I've raised storm chances to 40% for areas near Interstate 20 during the afternoon hours. Main threat (if storms develop) would be large hail and damaging wind gusts. Remember, this threat is conditional and depends on an EML inversion along with the extent of the lift/placement of the boundary.
Monday Night - Overall, I think besides a few evening strong storms we should be dry overnight. It's certainly possible for a shower or two, but most will remain dry. Lows will be in the middle 50s.
Tuesday/Tuesday Night - This is the more complicated of them all. Tuesday should be fairly dry until 5pm at least. A few isolated showers and storms could be around during the afternoon, but most should be dry with highs pushing 70° for the metroplex, with areas north in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Low 70s common in our southern zones. It's also possible for a bit of sunshine for areas near and south of I/20 and east of I/35 Tuesday afternoon. After Tuesday PM, everything becomes really complicated. The cold front that pushes through will likely get stalled in our southern and southeastern zones. This is a possibility - It lifts back to the north and pushes 60°+ dewpoints back into North Texas, especially south of I/20. Severe weather would then be a threat for the metroplex and areas to the south. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main risks as storms move in late Tuesday evening into the early overnight. Another, more likely scenario would be the warm front stays south of the area, therefore the severe risk does as well, but widespread showers and storms (a few could still be strong) would be likely Tuesday night through Wednesday. Stay updated with us as a very uncertain forecast is in play Tuesday night.
Wednesday will feature widespread showers and even a few thunderstorms with temperatures falling as a second push of cooler air comes in. Highs will be in the 50s. Rain will continue into Wednesday night, tapering off by daybreak Thursday.
ONE THING WE ARE CERTAIN OF - Very heavy rain will be possible in many storms, and widespread 2-3" of rain is likely with a corridor of 3-4" possible especially along I/20. Things will dry out by Thursday with highs in the upper 60s.
Dry weather is expected Friday and Saturday, but our next storm system arrives by Sunday with showers and storms possible for Sunday into early next week.