Very Stormy Forecast Ahead

Widespread storms rolled in this morning with some severe in DFW, producing damaging winds and hail around 10-11am this morning. However, all of that has moved out and most have been left with a cloudy and mild afternoon. The exception is our northwestern zones where some storms have redeveloped but are currently below severe limits. An enhanced risk of severe storms is in place in far West Texas, where supercellular development is expected within the next few hours. All modes of severe weather will be possible, and this is actually a key to the forecast tonight. These storms will tend to cluster up and will make a run for North Texas. These should stay just N/W of DFW, where a few isolated strong or severe storms will be possible embedded in the clusters. Hail or wind will be the main threat.

This is all associated with a cold front that is stalled across the area now that will lift northward overnight. It will re-approach the region tomorrow afternoon, and showers & thunderstorms will quickly fire up by afternoon with near a 40-50% coverage. A couple of these may turn strong or maybe severe with 1000-2000 instability and some shear in place. Main risk will be large hail. Severe risk right now overall appears low. Best chances are east of I/35.

​Sunday looks like the calmest of the next seven, with only isolated showers and storms expected. Nothing severe or widespread. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s.

Monday will have widespread storms, mainly in the morning hours. Some of these could be strong with hail or gusty winds. Severe threat looks quite low. Scattered storms will likely redevelop in the afternoon. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s once again.

Tuesday will have numerous thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon hours. Ingredients may be in place for some severe storms, but this part of the forecast is uncertain. We should get some refinement on that the next few days. Highs will be in the upper 70s. A very similar forecast is in place on Wednesday, and there may be some severe weather once again. We will see how this first wave evolves the next few days. Highs will be in the upper 70s as well on Wednesday.

Thursday looks to be the main show storm wise and severe weather wise. A dynamic system will aid in the development of afternoon and evening storms, and a rather significant severe weather event may evolve somewhere in the plains in the warm sector, with snow/wintry precip in the cold sector. (central and northern plains) This is six days out and will change. Highs Thursday will be near 80° or so.

We should dry out by Friday with dry weather next weekend.

​Logan Shipley