Super Bowl Sunday!

WEEKEND UPDATE:

Happy Super Bowl Sunday everyone! A great game is slated for today and I think it’d be easier to predict the score of the game than next week’s forecast as there is so much uncertainty. I’ll detail everything you’ll need to know about next week and what to look out for!

EARLY WEEK:

Monday and Tuesday will be relatively cool days with some overcast skies and occasionally breaks in the clouds. An arctic front will slowly be approaching North Texas as the week progresses so each day will become cooler and cooler. While the initial front will move through Oklahoma on Monday, it won’t make it to DFW until midday Tuesday, as it slowly encroaches upon the region. The arctic air mass is relatively shallow, so while we know it will come into North Texas sometime on Tuesday, it’s hard to know how quickly it’ll move through, and how deep the cold will be. The GFS and Euro have it fizzling out and staying relatively warm (in the 50s and 60s) through Wednesday, whereas the NAM shows a brief warmup period early Tuesday with another drop in temperatures as DFW struggles to get out of the 40s. Typically, models struggle with shallow cold, so expect wild temperature swings in the forecast for the next few days. In addition, some of the mid range models are indicating the potential for freezing drizzle overnight Tuesday into Wednesday as the arctic air seeps its way into Texas. The initial front on Monday/Tuesday won’t have any moisture associated with it but there is a low chance of it occurring overnight Tuesday. However, it’s extremely minimal so don’t anticipate any wintry weather for the first part of the week.

ARCTIC BLAST:

Cold air has been building up in Canada for a few days as Greenland Blocking and global teleconnections have set up conditions for a proper arctic blast. A ridge of cold air will move southward and make it to NTX sometime later in the week. There are large differences between the models as the ICON and GFS are forecasting extremely cold temperatures (as low as the single digits for Valentine’s Day) due to a stronger front with more arctic air, whereas the Euro slows the progression of the front and limits temperatures. On Wednesday, there’s decent potential for moisture, however most of it will likely be a cold rain. That being said, there is low confidence in a potential ice storm taking place overnight if the air moves quickly enough. In addition, there is some general instability that could facilitate a few thunderstorms south of DFW along the boundary of the air mass. While it’s unclear what will happen with that moisture overnight, it’s likely that it won’t have any travel impacts on the region. It’s generally agreed upon, however, that by Thursday, temperatures will be in the 30s and possibly dip down into the low 20s overnight. And, as the weekend approaches, temperatures are supposed to decline—it’s just unclear by how much. Also, as we shift to a period of cooler temperatures, it’s possible we might have multiple shots at winter weather, with ice storms, freezing rain, and snow all shown as a possibility over the next 10 days, with multiple chances for precipitation. It’s hard to hone in on one example due to high model disagreements over the progression of the arctic airmass and global oscillations that affect larger air mass movements and pressure systems. Ensemble guidance is promising but continues to change, so it will be something to monitor as we progress through the week. For now, enjoy the last few mild days as it starts to get colder next week. Stay warm, stay safe, and stay weather aware!

-Colin Welty