WARM START TO APRIL - Today will be another warm day across the region with highs topping off in the low 80s this afternoon under a mostly cloudy sky. It will stay dry until storms develop later this afternoon. NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS LIKELY THIS EVENING - A positively tilted trough extending through the High Plains region, combined with a dryline in West Texas, moderate instability and moisture returns will set the stage for severe storms to develop across the North-Central Texas region, including as far south as Austin and San Antonio. The SPC has upgraded the 35-split and points to the north (including the DFW metroplex) to an "enhanced risk" (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms for this afternoon and evening; the standard "slight risk" (level 2/5) extends as far south as Hillsboro, Killeen, Troy, Temple, Killeen, Waco, Palo Pinto, Corsicana, Fairfield, and even down towards Austin and San Antonio. For communities outside of Palo Pinto County, a "marginal risk" (1/5) is in place. TIMING - The main window for storms across the region will be from 4p to midnight. Once the "cap" (warm layer aloft) erodes, isolated to scattered storms will begin to develop in northwest Texas, moving eastward as we progress through the evening. For DFW, The timing for severe storms will be from 7-10pm.
Areas to the south and east of the metroplex will experience storm development closer to 8-9pm, Moving into East Texas after 10 PM. THREATS - While storms may remain more isolated than in Oklahoma, any storm that develops, especially along the Red River, will have the potential of producing destructive hail (2.5" or greater). While the main parameters for strong tornadoes today remain to the north in Oklahoma and Missouri, a few tornadoes are also possible, given a strongly sheared environment with moderate instability and abundant inflow moisture content to supply the updrafts. RAIN - Due to the isolated nature of storms in our region today, rain amounts won't be high by any means. However, any severe storm can produce up to 1/2" of rain. GET READY NOW - Here are some important notes about preparing for today.
DO NOT BE ANXIOUS OR WORRIED! Events like this are very common in North Texas during our regular tornado season, which includes March, April, and May. Have a way of hearing warnings, have an emergency plan, and you will be fine. Although the odds of any one spot getting a tornado are very low, we must be prepared nonetheless. |
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