It is May in North Texas... it's the time of year we see an uptick in severe weather, and that is exactly what will happen as we move forward to Tuesday and Wednesday this week, especially Wednesday. There are 4 possible scenarios that could occur during the day Wednesday, let's dig in a bit more and discuss these details/scenarios.
SCENARIO #1 - A complex of showers and storms, some severe, tracks across Oklahoma early Wednesday morning. While Oklahoma would have a fairly stable atmosphere, supercellular development would take place across North Texas. All modes of severe weather would be possible.
SCENARIO #2 - A complex of showers and storms, some severe, tracks across north Texas and parts of Oklahoma early Wednesday morning, with damaging winds being the main threat, along with isolated tornado and small hail. A few storms would continue into the midday hour, before shifting east of our area. the atmosphere would remain stable, and the severe threat Wednesday afternoon would be much lower.
SCENARIO #3 - Showers and storms track across North Texas & Oklahoma Wednesday morning, some severe. However, the rain moves out quickly and we see sunshine and sufficient destabilization Wednesday afternoon, and scattered supercells develop across North Texas and Oklahoma. All modes of severe weather will be possible.
SCENARIO #4 - The severe storms that develop in West Texas Tuesday evening fall apart before reaching North Texas and Oklahoma, and we stay dry Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Supercells develop Wednesday afternoon, and all modes of severe weather will be possible.
As stated above, there are several different scenarios that could evolve Wednesday. This makes the forecast very complex and sensitive to any minor changes. The NWS/SPC has issued an ENHANCED RISK of severe weather for much of North Texas and Oklahoma, including the entire Dallas/fort Worth Metroplex.
Stay with ApexStorm the next several days as we continue to refine the forecast.
Forecaster for ApexStorm