We have a strong system bringing a chance of severe weather heading into tomorrow. Let's talk about it!
First of all, I expect the morning hours to be mainly dry, but a few isolated showers or a storm isn't ruled out northeast of the metroplex, especially into SE Oklahoma.
By the noon hour, we will be in the mid 70s. This is when things become more interesting. We will have abundant instability tomorrow, and we will monitor the risk of isolated supercellular storm development. The cap looks to erode, but models haven't really picked up on much storm development during the afternoon hours. I still think a storm or two may develop. Should they develop, any storm will likely turn severe quickly with very large hail and damaging winds. These storms will be more discrete in nature, so they will have the potential to rotate and produce a tornado IF they develop. Again, this is between 12PM through about 5PM.
A strong cold front will be approaching the Red River by late afternoon. Temperatures ahead of the front will be in the mid 80s in the DFW area. In our western/northwestern counties, thunderstorms will develop by late afternoon. These storms are expected to push southeast and affect the DFW metroplex early to mid evening. The storms will have supercellular structures, so they will pose a severe risk. The risks are highly dependent on the overall coverage and linear potential.
If the storms remain more separated from each other (a broken line) of supercell storms, they will produce very large hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two.
The other possible outcome is that they congeal into a linear structure (squall line) and produce mainly a straight-line wind risk and a chance of an embedded tornado or two. If the storms are in the squall line, it will limit the overall large hail risk. But, it still will produce a hail risk of up to ping pong ball, but it won't be as significant as the broken supercellular line.
There are plenty of factors in play that make this a tricky forecast.
A few models (not all, and in fact not many) have the storms more post-frontal rather than pre-frontal, migitating the overall severe risk.
Many other models have it more as a pre-frontal solution, increasing the overall severe risk.
Another factor is does the DFW area see any supercells during the afternoon hours. If that happens, our atmosphere will be stabilized and will only allow for general (non-severe) thunderstorms along the cold front.
Since the coverage of supercells during the afternoon hours will only be 20%, it's more likely that the line will be severe than the DFW area seeing a supercell during the afternoon.
Another factor is very significant instability. We will have some of the highest values we have seen since last spring. The storms that develop (especially with the pre-frontal solution) along the cold front with significant instability will aid in a more significant severe event compared to the more isolated ones we've had earlier this spring.
And another factor is the morning storms in Oklahoma. Do they send out an outflow boundary? An outflow boundary basically works like a mini cold front. It could kick off some intense supercells IF one penetrates south and if one even develops. This would occur more in the afternoon if we see an outflow boundary.
Another factor is the cap. (CINH) How strong or how weak is it will greatly increase or decrease the overall risk of severe weather is still unknown. Most models have it eroding, but model or two keep it mainly in place.
As you can tell, there are plenty of factors and uncertainties with tomorrow. We will be here tomorrow and will Update you throughout the day. The TEXAS WEATHER DISCUSSION VIDEO will be released by 7AM tomorrow.
Have a blessed night,