Good evening, North Texas! It was a very nice today, but the sunshine streak is coming to an end. Some scattered showers will develop overnight, and clouds and fog will quickly overspread the area. Some of the fog may be quite dense, so use caution on your commute! A few storms are possible in the morning, but widespread storms will develop by afternoon, and a few storms may be severe primarily with a hail threat. Gusty winds are possible, but tornadoes are not expected. By wednesday, everything becomes questioned. Let me break this down. If there's rain in the morning, any rain will be east of the area. If we cannot see much warming either we see rain or not, the severe risk and storm risk will be low. But, if there's no morning rain (in significance) there will be a severe threat and a potentially high coverage of storms, and we will need to see heating. All rain rain will exit the area late Wednesday night and Thursday-Saturday will be dry.
Another round of storms is expected by Sunday, and severe storms are possible. More on that later this week. Some colder air (highs in the 40s and 50s) will enter next Monday. There are signs that significant cold will return to North Texas by the end of next week. There are also signs of precipitation chances during the timeframe, so we will monitor any threat of winter weather. The seven day forecast will be uploaded to the website by 6:00 AM tomorrow. Have a great night! -Jonathan ABOVE IS YOUR 7 DAY FORECAST!The wet weather has come to an end, at least for tonight and tomorrow! The clouds will increase overnight as well as some fog developing. Some spotty very light rain or drizzle is possible tomorrow morning, but any precip will not be measureable, just enough to dampen the roads, but any very light rain will remain very spotty in nature. Clouds will decrease by midday with sunshine returning by afternoon with highs in the 60s. But, it should be noted that a few models have clouds staying around tomorrow afternoon, and it would keep highs in the upper 50s across the D/FW metroplex, but will leave it out of the forecast for now. If models bring more cloud cover, we will address that in the morning.
By tomorrow night, clouds will be in place with some scattered (20-30%) shower activity south of I/20. Some spotty storm activity is possible Tuesday morning, but thunderstorms will rapidly develop by midday. These storms will roll through the DFW area between 2PM-6PM, bringing pockets of very heavy rain, lightning, gusty winds, hail up to quarter size, and isolated instances of flash flooding. The overall chance of severe storms on Tuesday appears low, but a few isolated embedded severe storms are possible. Storms will exit our area Tuesday night, but scattered to numerous storms will develop Wednesday morning. A few marginally severe storms are possible, but most storms will remain behaved Wednesday morning. By afternoon, a dryline and a cold front will begin to approach the area from the west and northwest. A squall line of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms will develop and push east and southeast and affect the Dallas/Fort Worth area near 9-10PM. Large hail and damaging winds are possible along the leading edge of the thunderstorms. I cannot even rule out a tornado or two as well. After the leading edge passes through, things will turn from a severe threat to a heavy rain threat for the overnight hours, and flash flooding will then become a concern. 1-3" of additional rainfall could fall during the overnight hours. Scattered rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm will linger into Thursday morning east of I/35, but sunshine will return to all areas by afternoon. Use caution on your Thursday morning commute and keep an eye out for any remaining flooded areas. We will dry out completely late in the day through Saturday! But yet again, a good chance of storms may occur next Sunday. The GFS keeps us dry on Sunday, so I lowered the chance of rain to only 50% and if the other models keep us drier, then will lower chances accordingly. My concerns go up next Monday as high instability values return ahead of our next cold front, and another severe weather event may occur. Colder air may move in next Tuesday will highs back in the 50s. Something that has caught my attention is that GEFS ensembles and the operational GFS have a blast of very cold air by the end of next week with widespread precipitation, leading to a wintry mix across the entire area later next week. We will closely watch all of these interesting weather features throughout the next 10 days, as we have a lot going on! -Jonathan Today has been a quiet day in the D/FW area, and temperatures are pleasant in the 60s! Tomorrow will likely be a repeat of today, with sunshine and highs in the 60s. As moisture returns during the afternoon, a few clouds may roll in, and a brief shower or storm cannot be ruled out, mainly towards the Brazos Valley. But, changes come back midweek, with rain/storms making a comeback!
What days will the rain come? The chances of rain tomorrow are scarce to none, but high rain chances return Tuesday and Wednesday, and a few lingering showers or storms are possible early Thursday morning E/SE of the Dallas/Fort Worth area. Any severe threats? Yes, there are severe potentials, with the main threat on Wednesday. Tuesday afternoon as a round of storms moves in, a storm could turn strong to severe with hail as the main threat. Because of this, the Storm Prediction has placed all of North Texas under a marginal risk, and a slight risk is possible by the time we get to Tuesday. Again the primary threat is large hail up to the size of half dollars to golf balls. The wind/tornado threat on Tuesday is very low, but not zero. Heading into Wednesday, this is our main severe weather day, and because of this, we urge you to stay up to date and keep up with the latest conditions on twitter, @wx_dfw and @apex_wx_dfw as frequent updates and watches/warnings will be posted on Wednesday afternoon. A cold front will approach the CWA during the afternoon hours on Wednesday, and will fire up strong to severe thunderstorms, possibly producing large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two, especially east of I/35. (including the DFW metroplex) The instability amounts will not be extremely high, but it is enough to warrant a Severe Potential, and strong shear will aid in producing these storms. Lapse rates will support hail sizes up to the size of golf balls to baseballs, so please stay weather aware. Frequent updates through the next several days will address these potentials. How much rain will fall? Will flooding be an issue? These storms on Tuesday-Wednesday will be very heavy rain producers, and amounts of 1-3" are expected, with isolated higher amounts up to 5" are possible. Because of the ALL the rain we've seen in the past week, soils will be very saturated, so flash flooding will become an issue. A flash flood watch may be issued by the National Weather Service tomorrow, and I'll update you on IF and when any watches are issued. Should I go and cancel my plans on Tuesday and Wednesday? There are very high rain chances on these days (80%) but I would not go cancel plans on these days, mainly if they are in the morning. Tuesday and Wednesday morning will be mainly dry, but an isolated storm or two is possible. If you have any afternoon or evening plans, have plan B ready to go, because after midday these days rain chances will be very high. Remember, even i it isn't raining, flooded areas are still possible, and if it's not storming, lightning can strike well away from any storms, so please make safe decisions. After Thursday morning, things will dry out across all of North Texas, and we will be dry during the afternoon with sunshine breaking out. Plenty of sunshine will be with us on Friday and Saturday, but good rain and storm chances return next Sunday. There will likely be more showers & storms next Monday and Tuesday. While it's too early to get into any specifics, strong to severe storms appear at least possible during the timeframe, and flooding may be an issue due to all the rain we've seen. I'll update you on these potentials as we get closer to these events. As we have discussed a lot about recently, winter weather may make a harsh return in March. Negaitive NAO & AO will make for much colder air to return to the United States, after a well deserved break. We had a very harsh January, with lows in the single digits with several minor winter weather events. Last year, we had 2 days with below freezing temperatures, and this year we have had 10+ days! This year has been a chilly winter, and we've had more winter events than 2016 and 2017 combined, but most of them have had only minor accumulations and impacts, except for the January 15-16th event with some areas east of D/FW seeing up to 5" of sleet/snow! More events could occur in March, and I'll update you as soon as I can whenever the models have winter weather in the near future. Attached below is your updated seven day forecast! Have a great rest of your Sunday DFW! -Jonathan ABOVE IS YOUR UPDATED 7 DAY FORECAST!Today will be RAIN-free across the D/FW area, but areas towards Tyler to Athens have a slight chance of a pop-up thunderstorm, so if you are along and south of the I/20 corridor, there's a 10% chance of a storm, which chances increasing to 60% down towards the ATX metropolitan area, and near 90% in Houston. But again, DFW will be dry this afternoon. A few cumulus clouds may develop this afternoon, which is fairly rare in the winter time! We had some stratocumulus clouds yesterday, but they were not cumulus. Today will have a mix of sunshine, stratocumulus, and cumulus clouds across the D/FW area with a few high clouds possible. RAIN RETURNS MIDWEEK: Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday morning WEST of I/35, but numerous thunderstorms will move in near midday, some strong to severe, and widespread storms will continue through the afternoon on Tuesday. A few may be severe with large hail and gusty winds, but the tornado threat is very low, but not zero. T-Storms will exit the D/FW area during the overnight hours, but scattered thunderstorms will develop in the D/FW area during the morning hours Wednesday, some severe with hail & high winds, but the main severe risk comes in the afternoon. Widespread thunderstorms will develop ahead of a pacific cold front, and these storms may turn severe with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Stay up to date as the amounts of instability are still in question, so will hold off on saying whether there will be enough severe weather to aid a WATCH due to these uncertainties. Morning showers Thursday morning will give away to mostly sunny skies during the afternoon, and sunshine will be in abundance next weekend with mild temperatures prevailing. Regarding Winter Weather Potentials: The signs of winter weather are getting stronger in early March, and the models are really latching into it. What we do in these situations is look at Ocean Oscillations and we primary look at NAO ans AO. When these two features turn strongly negative, then concerns for cold air go up. We will have a quiet pattern through the 5th of March, then we will likely turn cold and wet. This may lead to at least a chance of winter weather. -Jonathan Williams Above is your UPDATED seven day forecast, and I've removed mention of isolated storms tomorrow, as all rain will be confined to our far southeastern counties tomorrow. Cloudy skies and fog will be the headlines in the morning, but areas WEST of I/35 will break out into abundant sunshine, but areas east of I/35 may be blanketed under the clouds for most of the day. Highs tomorrow in DFW will be in the 60s, with 70s west of DFW and 50s east of DFW. I expect DFW to see some sun by afternoon, but if the sunshine struggles to come out, we may stay in the 50s. My forecast high is 65° and I think that high temperatures will suffice. Some more sunshine is expected Monday, but a few spotty storms return late Monday Night into Tuesday morning, but widespread rain, and possibly even some thunderstorms, are expected by late afternoon Tuesday. Meager instability will limit the threat of severe weather during the afternoon, but a strong storm with small hail and gusty winds is possible mainly south of D/FW. Storms will exit the region Tuesday night with a break overnight into Wednesday morning. By midday Wednesday, a cold front and dryline will approach our western counties, possibly firing up some scattered supercellular thunderstorms, with severe storms possible with sufficient instability and very strong shear. With the strong shear, damaging winds and potentially tornadoes will likely be the main severe threats, but with impressive lapse rates, some large hail to the size of tennis balls may be possible during the afternoon. While this doesn't look to be a tornado outbreak, a few tornadoes are possible, and we will closely monitor this threat the next few days. Scattered to widespread severe storms will push from west to east during the afternoon, but then a cold front will bring in a damaging wind threat as a squall line of storms develops. Lingering rain and rumbles of thunder are likely Thursday morning, then we dry out and we will be 10-20° cooler Thursday compared to Wednesday. Warmer weather moves back in next weekend, with maybe a small chance of a thunderstorm next Sunday mainly E of D/FW. Some relatively cooler air (50s for highs) will return next week.
WINTER WEATHER: We have a chance of seeing some colder air in March, but the pattern doesn't look to completely support snow or ice chances. But, any disturbances near the Sea of Japan may bring chances of wintery weather, and if a high pressure system can develop over Florida, moisture will have to wrap around the upper level high and will force moisture back into North Texas. Obviously if this happens and we have cold air, we could squeeze out some light wintery precipitation, even with little to no lift. But, if this doesn't occur but we do have a system, we may possibly have some very light wintery precipitation. If all three of these factors can come together, than we may have a winter storm to deal with. Again, this cold air will likely be in place during the first FULL week of March. The overall risk of us seeing any winter weather appears LOW in my opinion, but there is indeed at least a chance of seeing winter weather before we enter Spring. -Jonathan Williams The storms from this morning have finally pushed east of the metroplex with some minor damage done from these storms. We've had lots of flooding reports, but we've received hail reports, up to the size of quarters, shattering skylights in parts of the metroplex, and some 40-60mph wind gusts, but no damage has been reported from winds. And yes, the sun is peaking out. Some sunshine is expected this afternoon, but an isolated thunderstorm or two, possibly severe, may develop this afternoon and may pose a large hail threat mainly east of I/35. The tornado risk increases this evening in Arkansas to Louisiana to Tennessee as well as a very large hail and damaging wind threat. We will finally have 48 hours of dry time and sunshine, but some clouds may move back in by Monday. The NAM 3k has some scattered showers developing tomorrow afternoon, but will leave it out of the forecast for now because it's the only model showing this. I may insert a 20% chance of showers tomorrow in this evenings seven day, and I also apologize for the inconvience that the 7 day hasn't been updated in a few days. I will update it this evening and I expect to return to the normal schedule by tonight. Anyways, Monday will be a dry day with some mid level clouds moving in during the afternoon ahead of our next storm system. Some elevated shower activity may develop in our far eastern counties Monday afternoon with the increase in moisture content, but DFW will remain dry. Tuesday will be a stormy day, primarily during the afternoon. Widespread clouds and patchy drizzle and fog will be with us during the morning hours, but widespread thunderstorm activity (50-70%) will be with us during the afternoon hours. A few of these storms may turn strong to marginally severe, with quarter to half dollar size hail and gusty winds up to 60mph possible. Locally heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding with 6-12" of rain that have fallen the past few days. Also, frequent cloud to ground lightning may also be a risk. Heading into Tuesday evening, a line of storms may have a damaging wind threat, and an embedded tornado cannot be ruled out E of DFW. By Wednesday this is when our first significant severe risk of the season may occur. Below is the DAY 5 severe weather risk issued by the SPC: We have been outlined in a 15% risk area, which is a level 2 slight risk. I think by Wednesday morning, the entire DFW area will be under an enhanced risk of severe weather, and all modes of severe weather including very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes appear possible. We will closely monitor this threat of severe weather. Some scattered storms are possible (perhaps severe) Thursday morning before moving east of our region. Dry weather will return by next weekend and fairly mild temperatures will continue with highs in the mid 50s and 60s.
For the first time in a while, there are signs of wintery weather returning to the Dallas/Fort Worth area in the foreseeable future. The long range data is in agreement that the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) will turn negative in response to the sudden Stratospheric Warming Event that happened last week, and this will cause significantly colder air to come into the lower 48 in early March. We will watch for this active pattern that will set up, with a strong high pressure system sitting over Florida during the timeframe that may lead to pluming moisture into Texas. This would set us up for several major winter storms, so we will watch this pattern closely. SPRING OUTLOOK: We will likely have a very active spring with fairly normal temperatures across the state of Texas, and it actually appears that some cold air could even come into Texas during April according to the EPS LONG RANGE. This is a rare occurrence, and by cold I mean temperatures (highs) in the 40s. We will watch that closely. We may have a very active severe weather season, so get used to these severe risks, as we may have a bad spring coming to North Texas. As always you can follow me on twitter @wx_dfw!! -Jonathan Good evening, DFW. Jonathan williams here! I've been looking at some new data that just came in and I have much higher concerns for the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex regarding the potential of a wintry mix expected tomorrow. The latest NAM, which thinks temperatures should be in the mid 40s now with temps in the mid 30s across most of the metroplex, has widespread freezing rain and sleet in Tarrant, Northern Dallas, Collin, and Denton Counties tomorrow morning. With temperatures running below what it thinks we are now, we may end up in the upper 20s and lower 30s in the DFW metroplex by tomorrow morning, therefore, have included a wintry mix after 10z tonight. (4AM) Accumulations with the NAM have up to 1/4" of an inch of ice tomorrow morning with some light sleet accumulations as well. The winter weather advisory has been expanded to include Denton County, and I expect it to cover the entire metroplex by tomorrow morning. Do I think this will reach Winter Storm Warning criteria? I doubt it but anything is possible seeing how crazy this winter has been. Hazardous travel is expected tomorrow morning, with a widespread rain/freezing rain mix tomorrow afternoon, possibly mixed with sleet at times. Bottom line is that confidence is increasing significantly for icy conditions. Stay tuned and I'll have updates in the morning along with your updated 7 day forecast!
-Jonathan (@wx_dfw on twitter) Widespread heavy rain continues to fall across the Dallas/Fort Worth area, with some freezing rain, sleet, and snow falling along the Red River. Most of the metroplex at this time is in the 30s and 40s at this time, with the northern sections beginning to fall closer to freezing. Still no reports of wintery weather in the metroplex, but some winter weather is likely falling north of the metroplex. I was looking through the newest guidance, and I have increasing confidence for wintery weather, especially for Collin, Denton, and Tarrant Counties. I do believe several areas in the central and northern sections of Dallas County may also see some winter weather, but anywhere from the Downtown Dallas area to the S/SE I have low confidence of any wintery weather falling in those locations. Here's my latest thinking:
Overnight: Widespread rain will likely continue through midnight, then I expect a brief lull from midnight through 3AM, before widespread precipitation moves back into the region. This is when my concerns go up. Widespread rain will overspread the DFW area with temperatures near 33° to 34° range. Some of this may fall as sleet and freezing rain. Tomorrow Daybreak/Commute: Widespread precipitation will continue to fall across the entire DFW metroplex. Some of this will transition to freezing rain mixed with sleet and snow across the DFW area. A few slick spots may develop, but overall road conditions should stay fairly ok, but again, some slick spots will develop on roadways with slick travel on bridges and overpasses, so exercise caution on your morning commute to work or school. This precipitation will continue through 9AM, then taper off from southwest to northeast. Tomorrow Midday: Widespread cloud cover will hold firm across the DFW area with temperatures remaining near freezing, likely near 33° or so. Any frozen precipitation will remain on surfaces and with temperatures near freezing with no sunshine, all ice and sleet/snow will remain on all surfaces. We will have a lull in precipitation, but excercise caution still on roadways and especially on bridges and overpasses. We will watch an area of enhanced precipitation to the southwest/west of the DFW that may bring a second round of winter weather to the DFW metroplex. Tomorrow Afternoon/Evening: This area of enhanced precipitation will move into the DFW metroplex near 2PM or so, with some pockets of heavy precipitation possible with a very strong and dynamic system. Temperatures will probably reach the 33° to 34° area, but precipitation will likely remain in frozen form for Collin, Denton, Tarrant, and northern Dallas Counties area points NW. Freezing rain mixed with rain, sleet, and snow will fall across the DFW area. I do believe the majority of this will be freezing rain and rain, but sleet and snow is still likely to be mixed in at times. This may accumulate on grassy surfaces. Some ice accumulation is likely, with amounts up to 1/10th of an inch. Some rain will likely mix in. IF TEMPERATURES ARE LOWER THAN EXPECTED, we may have a risk of more impactful accumulations, and more sleet and snow will be possible. IF TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED, than we may have mainly rain mixed with a little freezing rain with NO sleet or snow. We will keep you updated because both of these scenarios are possible. The updated seven day forecast will be uploaded to the website by 6:30AM tomorrow. I will likely increase precipitation chances from 70% to 90-100% in tomorrow mornings forecast, but I expect to keep the forecast high tomorrow of 34° in the forecast. As always I am available on twitter @wx_dfw and will answer all your questions. -Jonathan Widespread strong storms continue right now as of 4:45PM, and these will continue all evening with temperatures falling into the 30s. This is where everything becomes interesting. There have already been several reports of freezing rain in NW Denton County. This is concerning, because temperatures are falling much quicker than expected. Overnight as widespread rain continues, a widespread transition to freezing rain and some sleet is likely across the Dallas/Fort Worth area, with a more likely area NW of DFW. Some very minor ice accumulations up to a few hundredths are possible overnight, leading to slick travel tomorrow morning mainly on bridges and overpasses in DFW. This widespread frozen precip will continue (primarily DFW points NW) tomorrow morning and afternoon, with an additional 1/10th of ice, leading to hazardous travel on all surfaces tomorrow afternoon. A winter weather advisory will likely be needed for the immediate DFW metroplex.
More blogs this evening as I recieve more data. Have a great evening and enjoy the rain/storms! -Jonathan Above is the UPDATED 7 Day Forecast:
A new Update on the seven day will be posted by 5PM. Severe Potential: Spotty showers continue in DFW because the cap is still holding any thunderstorm development to a minimum. Below are my concerns and thinking for this afternoon: Severe Potential: Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon, with near a 40-60% coverage of storms this afternoon. This coverage may be lower or higher than this number depending on many things: It's more likely to be higher than to be lower and here's why - The cap is something that suppresses thunderstorm development and it is still holding mainly strong at this time, but is a bit weaker than I anticipated. It is expected to continue to weaken and it may approach a breaking state. The instability also is increasing and is close to 1000 jKg at this time. I've noticed a few breaks in the clouds and sunshine will help us destabilize and have a higher instability value. So bottom line is that scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop, and they may turn severe. Large hail is likely to be the highest risk this afternoon, although damaging winds cannot be ruled out. This will NOT be a significant severe weather outbreak, but a few storms may turn severe. Stay up to date and keep an eye on the radar. The next timing on concern is overnight tonight as lift increases across North Texas and a complex of strong storms moves into DFW from the west/southwest. This will pose a heavy rain threat, but hail and strong winds will also be possible with this line. Hail sizes may reach as large as half dollar, and winds may reach up to 65mph. The tornado risk with this complex is not zero, but it's fairly low. And just like this afternoon, this will NOT be a major severe weather outbreak, but a few storms may turn severe with large hail and damaging winds. More widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur through the day tomorrow, with a very low risk of severe storms. Some small hail and gusty winds will be possible along with frequent lightning, but the primary risk will be very heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding. More widespread rain (possibly some freezing rain well northwest/west of DFW) will occur on Wednesday. Isolated rain is possible Thursday morning, but then widespread showers are likely during the afternoon hours continuing into Friday. Some severe weather is possible next Saturday across the eastern half of North Texas, including the DFW metroplex. -Jonathan |
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June 2018
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