The storms from this morning have finally pushed east of the metroplex with some minor damage done from these storms. We've had lots of flooding reports, but we've received hail reports, up to the size of quarters, shattering skylights in parts of the metroplex, and some 40-60mph wind gusts, but no damage has been reported from winds. And yes, the sun is peaking out. Some sunshine is expected this afternoon, but an isolated thunderstorm or two, possibly severe, may develop this afternoon and may pose a large hail threat mainly east of I/35. The tornado risk increases this evening in Arkansas to Louisiana to Tennessee as well as a very large hail and damaging wind threat. We will finally have 48 hours of dry time and sunshine, but some clouds may move back in by Monday. The NAM 3k has some scattered showers developing tomorrow afternoon, but will leave it out of the forecast for now because it's the only model showing this. I may insert a 20% chance of showers tomorrow in this evenings seven day, and I also apologize for the inconvience that the 7 day hasn't been updated in a few days. I will update it this evening and I expect to return to the normal schedule by tonight. Anyways, Monday will be a dry day with some mid level clouds moving in during the afternoon ahead of our next storm system. Some elevated shower activity may develop in our far eastern counties Monday afternoon with the increase in moisture content, but DFW will remain dry. Tuesday will be a stormy day, primarily during the afternoon. Widespread clouds and patchy drizzle and fog will be with us during the morning hours, but widespread thunderstorm activity (50-70%) will be with us during the afternoon hours. A few of these storms may turn strong to marginally severe, with quarter to half dollar size hail and gusty winds up to 60mph possible. Locally heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding with 6-12" of rain that have fallen the past few days. Also, frequent cloud to ground lightning may also be a risk. Heading into Tuesday evening, a line of storms may have a damaging wind threat, and an embedded tornado cannot be ruled out E of DFW. By Wednesday this is when our first significant severe risk of the season may occur. Below is the DAY 5 severe weather risk issued by the SPC:
We have been outlined in a 15% risk area, which is a level 2 slight risk. I think by Wednesday morning, the entire DFW area will be under an enhanced risk of severe weather, and all modes of severe weather including very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes appear possible. We will closely monitor this threat of severe weather. Some scattered storms are possible (perhaps severe) Thursday morning before moving east of our region. Dry weather will return by next weekend and fairly mild temperatures will continue with highs in the mid 50s and 60s.
For the first time in a while, there are signs of wintery weather returning to the Dallas/Fort Worth area in the foreseeable future. The long range data is in agreement that the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) will turn negative in response to the sudden Stratospheric Warming Event that happened last week, and this will cause significantly colder air to come into the lower 48 in early March. We will watch for this active pattern that will set up, with a strong high pressure system sitting over Florida during the timeframe that may lead to pluming moisture into Texas. This would set us up for several major winter storms, so we will watch this pattern closely.
SPRING OUTLOOK: We will likely have a very active spring with fairly normal temperatures across the state of Texas, and it actually appears that some cold air could even come into Texas during April according to the EPS LONG RANGE. This is a rare occurrence, and by cold I mean temperatures (highs) in the 40s. We will watch that closely. We may have a very active severe weather season, so get used to these severe risks, as we may have a bad spring coming to North Texas.
As always you can follow me on twitter @wx_dfw!!