Increasing confidence on icy CoNditions tomorrow

Widespread heavy rain continues to fall across the Dallas/Fort Worth area, with some freezing rain, sleet, and snow falling along the Red River. Most of the metroplex at this time is in the 30s and 40s at this time, with the northern sections beginning to fall closer to freezing. Still no reports of wintery weather in the metroplex, but some winter weather is likely falling north of the metroplex. I was looking through the newest guidance, and I have increasing confidence for wintery weather, especially for Collin, Denton, and Tarrant Counties. I do believe several areas in the central and northern sections of Dallas County may also see some winter weather, but anywhere from the Downtown Dallas area to the S/SE I have low confidence of any wintery weather falling in those locations. Here's my latest thinking:

Overnight: Widespread rain will likely continue through midnight, then I expect a brief lull from midnight through 3AM, before widespread precipitation moves back into the region. This is when my concerns go up. Widespread rain will overspread the DFW area with temperatures near 33° to 34° range. Some of this may fall as sleet and freezing rain.

Tomorrow Daybreak/Commute:
Widespread precipitation will continue to fall across the entire DFW metroplex. Some of this will transition to freezing rain mixed with sleet and snow across the DFW area. A few slick spots may develop, but overall road conditions should stay fairly ok, but again, some slick spots will develop on roadways with slick travel on bridges and overpasses, so exercise caution on your morning commute to work or school. This precipitation will continue through 9AM, then taper off from southwest to northeast.

Tomorrow Midday:
Widespread cloud cover will hold firm across the DFW area with temperatures remaining near freezing, likely near 33° or so. Any frozen precipitation will remain on surfaces and with temperatures near freezing with no sunshine, all ice and sleet/snow will remain on all surfaces. We will have a lull in precipitation, but excercise caution still on roadways and especially on bridges and overpasses. We will watch an area of enhanced precipitation to the southwest/west of the DFW that may bring a second round of winter weather to the DFW metroplex.

Tomorrow Afternoon/Evening: This area of enhanced precipitation will move into the DFW metroplex near 2PM or so, with some pockets of heavy precipitation possible with a very strong and dynamic system. Temperatures will probably reach the 33° to 34° area, but precipitation will likely remain in frozen form for Collin, Denton, Tarrant, and northern Dallas Counties area points NW. Freezing rain mixed with rain, sleet, and snow will fall across the DFW area. I do believe the majority of this will be freezing rain and rain, but sleet and snow is still likely to be mixed in at times. This may accumulate on grassy surfaces. Some ice accumulation is likely, with amounts up to 1/10th of an inch. Some rain will likely mix in. IF TEMPERATURES ARE LOWER THAN EXPECTED, we may have a risk of more impactful accumulations, and more sleet and snow will be possible. IF TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED, than we may have mainly rain mixed with a little freezing rain with NO sleet or snow. We will keep you updated because both of these scenarios are possible.


The updated seven day forecast will be uploaded to the website by 6:30AM tomorrow. I will likely increase precipitation chances from 70% to 90-100% in tomorrow mornings forecast, but I expect to keep the forecast high tomorrow of 34° in the forecast. As always I am available on twitter @wx_dfw and will answer all your questions.

-Jonathan