THIS WEEKEND: We will be very warm and humid today with clouds this morning, with some sun this afternoon, but clouds roll back in later this afternoon into the evening. As a cold front approaches, some storms will fire up along it especially east of I/35. A few may be strong to marginally severe with gusty winds and hail. A few stronger cells with 70mph winds and half dollar size hail are possible mainly east of DFW. Tornado risk is the DFW area is very low, but it is a little higher towards the Shreveport area. We will have some clouds and drizzle with us tomorrow, but a few models have widespread light rain and even a storm or two tomorrow so I will watch that, but leaving low chances for now.
NEXT WEEK: Chilly weather is with us on Monday, and lows will be near freezing. Sunshine will be in abundance Monday through Thursday with a gradual warming trend. Storm chances return on Friday.
NEXT WEEKEND: It looks like we will have a decent shot of showers and storms Friday into Saturday. While it's too early to be certain, it does appear that there may be a severe risk, but it looks fairly low.
Have a good day! ;)
Its sunny and chilly out there with most locations in the lower 50s in DFW, and we will only reach the mid 50s this afternoon with feels like temperatures in the upper 40s with a light breeze. Some high clouds will stream in late this afternoon/evening, but no precipitation is expected. We will fall to the mid and upper 30s tonight with NO freezes expected in the DFW area, but a few outlying areas may approach the freezing mark. Some isolated frost is possible by tomorrow morning mainly N of the DFW area. Clouds will be in abundance tomorrow, with mostly cloudy to overcast skies expected throughout the day tomorrow with highs near 60° in the area, but western counties in the warmer advection may reach the upper 60s to near 70° in those areas. We will fall to the upper 40s and low 50s Friday with some morning sunshine, but we willl turn mostly cloudy near 10AM with spotty light drizzle possible south of I/20 where there will he better moisture. We will continue the cloudy trend into Saturday. As a dryline moves towards the I/35 corridor by Saturday afternoon, and widely scattered thunderstorms will develop. I don't expect much in the way of severe weather, but a few strong storms will gusty winds and small hail are possible mainly east of D/FW. Highs will be in the mid 70s across the region to near 80° west of DFW. We will fall to the 50s Sunday morning with only highs reaching the mid 60s on Sunday. Sunday will be mostly cloudy yet again across the area. Colder air comes in and we start Monday in the 30s, and only make it to the upper 40s and lower 50s across the area with partly sunny skies. Clouds move back in Tuesday with isolated rain west of Highway 281 possible. Highs will be in the upper 50s on Tuesday.
Above is your apexwx 7 day forecast!
The clouds and scattered showers and rumbles of thunder have been with us this afternoon, and scattered showers will continue tonight, especially east of D/FW tonight. We will have some showers move into D/FW this evening, but most of the precip will be in East Texas by midnight. A weak cold front will move into the area mid morning tomorrow, and a few isolated showers and storms may develop along it mainly SE of D/FW. No severe weather is anticipated, and in fact, no strong storms are even in the forecast with very low instability amounts. The clouds will break up near midday but high clouds may move in during the day tomorrow. The forecast is partly sunny tomorrow afternoon. All clouds will clear the area tomorrow evening and night. The next cold front will move in Tuesday afternoon and it may bring clouds with it, but no rain or storms are anticipated at this time. We will clear out Tuesday evening and temperatures will fall into the lower 30s north of I/20 with upper 30s and lower 40s south of I/20 where cold air advection will be less impressive. Some frost will develop in D/FW and a freeze is possible, especially north of a line from Graham to D/FW to Sulphur Springs. We will warm to the mid 50s and upper 50s Wednesday afternoon with lower 60s in our southern zones. Sunshine will be in abundance through the day Wednesday. We will fall back into the mid 30s Thursday morning, with another freeze possible northwest of D/FW. We will reach the 60s Thursday afternoon. We will have highs back into the 70s on Friday with some weak lift and some instability. A few storms will be possible on Friday and a few may be severe. But, modest instability will limit the overall risk of severe weather on Friday. Most areas will just see some light rain on Friday, but again, a few storms may develop and may be strong to severe. A cold front and dryline will approach the area on Saturday and some thunderstorms may develop along these forcing mechanisms. At this time, the majority of the rain and storms will remain NE of the area, but this is 6 days away so models can still change their solutions. Either way, instability values will be high on Saturday and we will have a very volatile atmospheric set up. Therefore, any storms will likely pose a severe risk. We will closely watch this. Much colder air will filter in behind the front Saturday night and we could have winds gust in excess of 40mph Saturday night. A few showers are possible next Sunday with highs in the upper 40s and 50s across the area. All precip will exit the area late Sunday and a cold start to next week is plausible given the strong cold air advection in place, and more freezes appear possible during this timeframe. No wintry weather is anticipated at this time.
Have a blessed evening! ;)
The clouds have been widespread this morning and this trend will continue through the next 24-36 hours. Some drizzle is out there now, but scattered (40%) showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon. While severe weather is not expected, a few strong storms are possible producing gusty winds, heavy rain, small hail, frequent cloud to ground lightning, and very loud rumbles of thunder! Any (low) severe risk will remain well north of our area closer to the upper level system. A weak cold front will move in tonight, possibly with a skinny line of showers and storms along it. A few strong storms are possible, but severe weather is NOT expected. Some storms may produce brief heavy rain and gusty winds, however. All thunderstorms will push east of the area tomorrow morning, but clouds will hold very firm through the day tomorrow. We may see a hour or two of near midday, but clouds will roll in ahead of our next cold front by 2PM, so mostly cloudy weather will prevail. A few sprinkles are possible with this front, but no measurable precipitation is expected. I cannot completely rule out a shower or two, but coverage will remain less than 10%. Skies will clear late tomorrow night, but the cold air behind the front will be delayed. Highs will be in the mid 60s, but we will fall into the lower to mid 30s Tuesday night with another freeze possible, but we will only rebound to the mid to upper 50s Wednesday afternoon, with our western and southern counties reaching the 60s. We will fall back to near freezing Wednesday night, and we will reach the 60° mark by Thursday. Sunshine will continue to be the player from Tuesday to Thursday. Ahead of our next cold front/upper level system, clouds will return by Friday with widespread cloud cover and isolated showers and thunderstorms. With a dryline and a cold front along with a strong system, we will watch for severe weather to return by Saturday. CAPE values will be approaching 3,000 JKg and with strong shear, we will likely have a potential of rotating supercells Saturday afternoon and night. It's too early to tell which types of severe weather will be the primary risks, but all modes of severe weather including large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, and flash flooding appear possible. This does have the potential to be our first significant severe weather event of the season. Thunderstorms will he scattered in nature Saturday afternoon, with a line of strong storms during the overnight hours. I'll keep you updated on this potential.
Planters: With frost and freezes back into the forecast this week, please abstain from planting anything. March still can be freezes and I do believe this may not be our last freezes, so again, please to not plant yet! I'll let you know when it is safe.
Regarding the seven day forecast: I hope to have it uploaded today, and follow my twitter @apexwx2 for when I say it's been released. It's been a very busy week and I haven't had much time! If it's not uploaded today (and I plan to have it uploaded soon) it will be uploaded tomorrow!
Have a blessed Sunday! ;)
- Jonathan Williams
Good evening, North Texas! Today was a beautiful day, but the clouds and drizzle have moved into the region. We will continue with these clouds and drizzle into the overnight, with a few isolated to scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm developing overnight especially from Sherman to Dallas to Waco points westward. No severe storms are anticipated. Tomorrow morning will be warm and humid, with temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s in DFW, with upper 40s to near 50° in our eastern counties where clouds and precipitation will be less numerous. Clouds will cover all of the area by 7AM tomorrow, with spotty shower/storm activity around. A few more numerous areas of showers and thunderstorms will develop by tomorrow afternoon, with about 40-50% of North Texas picking up rainfall. While widespread severe weather isn't expected, a strong to possibly severe thunderstorm with hail and high winds cannot be ruled out. Heavy rain will be the primary hazard leading to localized flooding due to all the recent rainfall. By tomorrow evening, showers and storms will move out of DFW and we will be stuck with the clouds and light rain. Something that has caught my attention is the pacific cold front that will move into the area tomorrow night. The MU CAPE values (most unstable convective available potential energy) across the Dallas/Fort Worth area will be near 1000-1500 with surface based CAPE near 800-1200 across the area. With this being said, we anticipate a few storms to develop along this front late tomorrow night. With sufficient instability and shear, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. The shear will be near 50kts which may support a few rotating cells, so we will monitor any low tornado potential. Only a 30% coverage of storms is expected, which may increase the overall severe risk with storms not fighting for energy which can weaken storms. The storms won't have to fight for energy so each cell could be on the stronger side. We will watch that closely. The best chance of storms will be EAST of DFW, but still a few isolated storms (possibly strong to severe) will be possible. Scattered storms will continue into Monday morning, but then rain moves out and we dry out during the afternoon, but sunshine may be hard to come by. Mostly cloudy skies will continue into the afternoon. Cooler air will penetrate into the region on Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the low 60s on Tuesday, with mid to upper 50s on Wednesday, so grab that light jacket! You may want to coats during the morning with temperatures in the 30s with isolated 20s possible. We will reach 60° Thursday with sunshine continuing and the 70s by Friday. We will warm to near 80° by next Saturday with a chance of storms, some of which may be severe.
The 7 day forecast will be uploaded to the website before 12:00pm tomorrow. Sorry for the inconvenience the past few days, I've been very busy!