hello, north texas! As febrUary is coming to a close, lets have a discussion about what lies ahead for march, which is when we Typically Still have oDds for winter weather. What we are going to do is break march Down and discuss what weather will likely Favor, and what ocean oScIllAtions will be, whIch have a large impact on North texas' weaTher!
Early March: The first few days of March will be mild with a few rain chances next Sunday/Monday/Tuesday. Overall, mild until near the 6th, and then things look to change. The NAO will turn into negative, which will favor colder air to move down into the Contiguous United States. The only question is how far south does this cold air make it. There's at least a chance it will make it down into Texas! The other thing which is really in question is our upper air pattern. The problem with this is no model has skill predicting it the pattern this far out, so we cannot really make an assumption that wintery weather will occur. But, we can say that there's a chance! Key Word: *CHANCE*
Mid March: The overall pattern during the timeframe looks cool to mild, with a few chances of rain. It looks like during this timeframe, the overall risk of snow or ice is fairly low, but it can't be ruled out. This is the time that we could begin to see some severe weather, and March is the beginning of tornado season!
Late March: Suprisingly enough, this is when the AO and NAO could turn very negative, and possibly the most negative we've seen in a long time! There is no skill in predicting any precipitation this far in advance, but the overall wet pattern looks like it may prevail! So, because of this, we may have our first spring snow or ice event since 2007, when widespread accumulating snow occurred south of I/20 the day before Easter! Again, this is no promise, but we may have a spring suprise!
I do want to give y'all a big heads up about the upcoming spring. It looks like we will have a mild and dry spring, and we all know that there are at least 3-5 widespread severe weather outbreaks and tornado outbreaks every spring in the DFW area. It could be more dry than normal, but a few severe events are still possible, mainly towards Mid April.
Have a great evening! A new seven day that I am going to have a few changes to will be posted by 7PM tonight, along with a blog to go with it.
Widespread rain is beginning lighten up a bit, but expect numerous showers and possibly some rumbles of thunder during the overnight hours. At this time, most of the DFW metroplex is in the 32° to 38° with possibly some pockets of freezing drizzle or sleet pellets up near the Bowie area. The current reading at my home in Plano is 36° and falling. I have lowered my overnight low from 33° to 30° for the DFW metroplex, but the downtown area may only fall to 32° but may still experience some icy conditions. More on that in one second. If you have been with me this evening on social media, you know that I've posted a picture on twitter of the RPM model. It has widespread freezing rain and sleet covering the entire DFW metroplex. This seems accurate, because it's the only model that had us this cold this fast. I am uncertain tbh on how much may fall, but I have a feeling that accumulations may be significant enough to cause disruptions to the morning commute across the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex. Anywhere SE of a line from Paris to Mesquite to Waco will remain ALL rain overnight, with no concerns there for the morning commute besides some heavy showers leading to a messy commute with very soaked and possibly flooded roads. Have you seen the scene near Watermark Church? I know many of you may go there, and the scenes on Central and 75 where a young woman drove into flooded waters and was stranded with water rising over a foot. Some areas of the metroplex have seen over 8" of rain, JUST today! Officially at my home, I have received 7.1" of rain today. Thankfully, I am in an area that does NOT flood. Prayers go out to those in that situation. Anyways, back to the freezing rain potential. This freezing rain may mix with rain during the afternoon hours tomorrow, but temperatures may struggle to reach the mid 30s. My forecast high tomorrow is 32-34° across the DFW area with a few areas in the upper 30s and low 40s SE of the DFW area. Some icy roads may continue through tomorrow night. Stay tuned and as always stay with me on social media and I will keep you updated on the winter weather potential. Gonna go get some shut eye, but I'll try to wake up as early as I can, but I do need some sleep! Have a great night! (btw, the winter weather advisory is expected to expand into the DFW area)
twitter username: @wx_dfw