hello, north texas! As febrUary is coming to a close, lets have a discussion about what lies ahead for march, which is when we Typically Still have oDds for winter weather. What we are going to do is break march Down and discuss what weather will likely Favor, and what ocean oScIllAtions will be, whIch have a large impact on North texas' weaTher!
Early March: The first few days of March will be mild with a few rain chances next Sunday/Monday/Tuesday. Overall, mild until near the 6th, and then things look to change. The NAO will turn into negative, which will favor colder air to move down into the Contiguous United States. The only question is how far south does this cold air make it. There's at least a chance it will make it down into Texas! The other thing which is really in question is our upper air pattern. The problem with this is no model has skill predicting it the pattern this far out, so we cannot really make an assumption that wintery weather will occur. But, we can say that there's a chance! Key Word: *CHANCE*
Mid March: The overall pattern during the timeframe looks cool to mild, with a few chances of rain. It looks like during this timeframe, the overall risk of snow or ice is fairly low, but it can't be ruled out. This is the time that we could begin to see some severe weather, and March is the beginning of tornado season!
Late March: Suprisingly enough, this is when the AO and NAO could turn very negative, and possibly the most negative we've seen in a long time! There is no skill in predicting any precipitation this far in advance, but the overall wet pattern looks like it may prevail! So, because of this, we may have our first spring snow or ice event since 2007, when widespread accumulating snow occurred south of I/20 the day before Easter! Again, this is no promise, but we may have a spring suprise!
I do want to give y'all a big heads up about the upcoming spring. It looks like we will have a mild and dry spring, and we all know that there are at least 3-5 widespread severe weather outbreaks and tornado outbreaks every spring in the DFW area. It could be more dry than normal, but a few severe events are still possible, mainly towards Mid April.
Have a great evening! A new seven day that I am going to have a few changes to will be posted by 7PM tonight, along with a blog to go with it.