Wet & Cold Saturday

Scattered to widespread showers and even a couple t-storms are expected today, with temperatures remaining in the 40s. No severe weather is expected, but it is a good day to stay inside. (as we all should be anyway) Temperatures stay steady tonight. Warm air advection increases tomorrow, and we will rebound into the low to middle 60s. The STJ will allow for impulses of energy to provide scattered showers and a few thunderstorms through the day tomorrow, but nothing severe is expected.

​A southwesterly flow regime will continue into Monday, and deep moisture will continue to remain in place. More impulses of energy will come along with the remaining STJ, leading to more scattered thunderstorms mainly during the heating of the day. Monday will be warmer and humid with highs in the middle 70s. A slightly greater amount of instability will be in place, so a strong to marginally severe storm or two with 40-50mph winds and upwards of 1" hail in diameter will be possible.

​Strong southwesterly winds will increase high temperatures on Tuesday, with a dryline pushing eastward towards I/35 during the afternoon. Temperatures will soar well into the 80s Tuesday afternoon with partly sunny skies. There will be a low chance of a storm along the dryline, however veered flow on the humid side and dry side of the boundary will limit any type of convergence that attempts to establish. Therefore, the chance of any storms on Tuesday is very low, but not zero. If a storm does manage to develop or a more defined set up occurs, we will have a very unstable and decently sheared environment capable of severe storms. Again, the chance of any development is low but will remain watched.

Wednesday is the more interesting day of the week with a leading trough and surface low combining with a cold front sagging into the Southern Plains with an established dryline in our western counties. A veered flow will be in place ahead of this dryline, and convergence may be better than Tuesday leading to the chance of scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening hours. An unstable and sheared environment will be in place, so there will be a threat of severe weather if storms can develop. There is significant difference among global guidance on whether storm development occurs or not. This will be watched the next few days.

Either way, a cold front will move into North Texas late Wednesday night and thunderstorms will likely develop along the boundary. There will be a risk for strong or severe storms during this timeframe, but the extend of storm coverage and the severity of storms is still rather unknown.

Thursday will be much colder and windy with temperatures likely falling into the 50s during the afternoon. Scattered showers will remain possible through the day, but nothing widespread or severe is expected.

A warming trend will take place next weekend, but dry weather is expected at this time.

Logan Shipley