Warm Through the Weekend; All Eyes on Nate

Dry Through the Weekend - This will still most likely be the shortest thing on this update.  Most of this blog update will be directed towards Tropical Storm Nate...

Dry, warm weather is in store for North Texas this weekend with a good supply of sunshine for both days with highs in the upper 80s.  As usual, we have a mild start to our day in North Texas, with DFW Airport recording a temperature of 71 degrees at 5:40 AM.  

Tropical Storm Nate - Tropical Storm Nate, which was upgraded nearly 24 hours ago, is currently located in the western Caribbean.  Here are some important key points this morning regarding this system...

​*Nate is forecast to reach minimal hurricane strength by NHC just before landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi River late tomorrow night. From there, the circulation center moves through South Mississippi, and North/Central Alabama Sunday and Sunday night

*Nate is forecast to reach minimal hurricane strength by NHC just before landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi River late tomorrow night. From there, the circulation center moves through South Mississippi, and North/Central Alabama Sunday and Sunday night.

*The GFS and a number of tropical models suggest Nate will not reach hurricane strength, however, due to dry air, westerly shear, and cooler SSTs (sea surface temperatures) near the coast. One way or another, the impact will be pretty much the same for the Gulf Coast region.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

*Baldwin County officials have a voluntary evacuation recommendation for areas south of Alabama Highway 182 (Beach Boulevard) in Gulf Shores and Orange Beach, and the Fort Morgan peninsula beginning this morning. Also, a voluntary evacuation recommendation has been issued for the Causeway (U.S. 90) in Spanish Fort.

*Wind and rain will increase on the Gulf Coast late tonight and through the day tomorrow. A storm surge of 1-3' is possible on the Alabama Gulf Coast and through the western part of the Florida Panhandle, and a few isolated tornadoes are possible well tomorrow. Rain will be heavy at times, but it won't rain all day.

​*Weather conditions will slowly improve on the coast by Sunday afternoon as Nate moves northward.

*Most of the rain for the northern half of Alabama will come Saturday night and Sunday; rain amounts should average 1-3", with isolated heavier amounts of 4 to 5" possible. Major flooding problems are not expected, however, since Nate will be moving along at a pretty good clip.
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*Pressure gradient winds of 20-40 mph are possible over much of Alabama tomorrow night and Sunday. Probably not high enough for major tree and power line damage, but a few trees could come down.

*The main tornado threat Sunday will be south of a line from Mobile to Montgomery to Opelika. For now the tornado threat over North Alabama looks rather low.

*Winds will diminish Sunday night, but lingering showers are likely Monday.

Football Weather - For high school football games tonight, the sky should be clear with temperatures  near 79-82 at kickoff, falling towards the mid 70s by the final whistle.

Next Week - A cold front arrives early next week, which will significantly bring temperatures down to the mid 70s in North Texas.  Earlier in the week, global models were suggesting a little bit of moisture along the cold front, but that idea is now out and we should continue to stay dry for the next seven days.  See the Texas Weather Discussion Video for more details.