WARM MORNING: Just like the past few days this week, temperatures are in the upper 60s with even a reading of 70° already this morning. With mostly sunny skies, we will mention highs in the mid to upper 80s again today, still about 5 to 6 degrees above our average high for May 16.
A few clouds roll in here by Friday, and we will mention a mix of sun and clouds with breezy conditions during the afternoon. Humidity levels will stay the same, and highs will remain in the mid to upper 80s.
THE WEEKEND: As advertised, a potent storm system from West Texas will more than likely bring severe weather to the North-Central Texas region from late Saturday morning through the afternoon hours. The SPC has already issued the "enhanced risk" (level 3 of 5) of severe storms for areas to the southeast of the immediate greater DFW Metroplex, although this does include Dallas. The standard "slight risk" (level 2 of 5) of severe storms exists for areas elsewhere.
TIMING: An MCS (mesoscale convective system) is likely to roll through the region from the west and northwest during the late morning and afternoon. Severe storms are possible anywhere from 9AM through 9PM Saturday.
THREATS: Instability and helicity values continue to indicate the potential for all modes of severe weather, including some supercells mixed into the squall line. Damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes all seem possible, especially in the Enhanced risk area.
Once severe storms clear the state, we should be mostly nice and dry overnight with lows in the upper 60s and highs in the mid 80s on Sunday with mostly sunny skies.
NEXT WEEK: After the possibility of showers and more severe storms on Monday and Tuesday, the rest of the week looks very dry and warm as an upper level ridge builds over the south-central US. Highs will continue to be in the mid 80s as that hot and dry pattern continues through Memorial Day weekend. See the Texas Weather Discussion Video for more details.