*no Texas Weather Discussion Video this morning*
CHILLY AND DRY - A mostly fair sky is in place over the region of North Texas. Temperatures are in the 40s, but we will warm to the upper 60s/lower 70s today with mostly sunny skies, absolutely perfect weather for high school football games later this evening.
THE WEEKEND - Most of the weekend stays mostly dry with highs in the mid 70s for Saturday. A cold front comes through during the early morning hours Sunday, which could set off an overnight round of showers and thunderstorms. We clear for the preceding day, starting off with clouds in the morning, starting off with mostly sunny skies by the afternoon. Highs will be in the mid to upper 60s on Sunday.
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EARLY NEXT WEEK - A deep, negatively tilted trough will develop across the Central US to add dynamic support to very strong winds aloft, and a rapidly instenifing surface low will move from the Red River all the way to Chicago. This will bring a very robust severe weather setup to the southern US Monday into Tuesday for much of the Deep South, east of Texas.
Based off of shear and instability values coming off of models, it looks like we will very well see the threat of semi-discrete supercells with potential for large hail, damaging winds, with the potential for violent, long-track tornadoes. At this time, the best window for a significant severe weather event looks to be from Monday afternoon to very early Tuesday morning, as the SPC notes.
With the severe weather threat more than 90 hours out, and with models still subject to change, will refrain from diving head first into the potential for a tornado outbreak. However, with good model trends, the current pattern NOW, and the time of the year, I would STRONGLY recommend everyone in the affected areas review their severe weather safety plan this weekend.
- Make sure you have multiple ways of receiving severe weather warnings. Having a NOAA Weather Radio in your home is a MUST (be sure to change out the batteries when we fall back this weekend!). Moreover, make sure your have a good app on your phone that's designed to alert you for warnings, like this one. NEVER RELY ON OUTDOOR WARNING SIRENS!!!!!
- If severe weather threatens your area, know where to go. If you are in a home, go to a small closet/bathroom on the lowest floor away from any windows, near the center of your house, if at all possible. If you are in a mobile home, be sure to know the locations of nearby sturdy shelters and have a way to get there in a moment's notice.
- In your pre-designated safe place, have a readiness kit which includes helmets for everyone (football, bicycle, or batting helmets will suffice), portable airhorns, and hard-sole shoes.
Keep in mind that these severe weather threats are typical because we are in our late severe weather season. So be sure to give everyone you know a heads up about this dangerous threat.
REST OF NEXT WEEK FOR TEXAS - The weather will be mostly cool for Tuesday through Friday with highs in the low 60s...
TROPICS - The Atlantic Basin remains very quiet, and tropical cyclone formation is not expected through next week.