Stormy Weekend Ahead

BIG COOL DOWN:  As advertised,  temperatures are currently in the low to mid 60s as I do this update,  and we should not warm much today;  we will only reach the mid 70s this afternoon with a mix of sun and clouds.  It will continue to be very breezy with a northwest wind of 10-20 mph on average.  The weather won't change much tomorrow; dry, warm, a mix of sun and clouds.  The high will be in the low to mid 70s.  Winds will shift to the east with average speeds of 5-15 mph.

ACROSS THE NATION:  Heavy snow with extreme winds will overspread parts of Nebraska, Minnesota, and Wisconsin today.  This will create blizzard conditions for the affected areas, severely interrupting travel, becoming impossible at peak.

SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY THIS WEEKEND:  A potent storm system positioned over Central Texas will bring another weekend of unsettled weather across Texas.  Rain will be possible with mostly cloudy skies on Saturday.  Keep in mind that the SPC has outlined an "enhanced risk" of severe storms (3/5) for parts of extreme Southeast Texas, with the standard "slight risk" of severe storms extending all the way towards the metroplex.

But, for Friday, a "marginal risk" (1/5) of severe storms is defined for much of the North Texas area and a portion of West Texas.

TIMING: Storms could begin as early as the early morning hours on Saturday for parts of NTX.  As we continue throughout the day, we will see showers and thunderstorms increase statewide and spread to the north with time.  It is still too early to pinpoint exact timing, but it looks like most of the severe thunderstorms across Texas will come from around 12:00 PM Saturday afternoon to 12:00 AM Sunday morning.  The rain and severe weather threat will gradually shift to the east with time.

THREATS:  For the early morning round, it looks like hailstones will most likely be the prominent threat for the most intense storms.  The SPC has North Texas in a risk of severe weather for all of Saturday, and it continues to look like all modes of severe weather will be possible.  Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes (some strong) is not out of the question.

Keep in mind that this event is still about 2-3 days out, and there is still lots of uncertainty regarding the small scale features, which is difficult regarding forecasting timing, magnitude, and placement of the event.  Definitely expect changes and refinements as we get closer to the weekend.

Now is a good time to review your severe weather plan.  Make sure you have a way of hearing warning (NOAA Weather Radio), and a good plan in place to get into a safe place in the event of a tornado warning.

​We should start to see some clearing by Sunday, and we should be mostly sunny with afternoon highs in the mid 60s by that point.

NEXT WEEK:  The latter half of week looks pleasant with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 70s, another system could bring some storms to the state on Tuesday and Wednesday, but it is best to get through this weekend's system before we can reel in onto next weeks.

This will be the last blog update from me this week...  I will be traveling to Florida for a band vacation early Friday morning and will be there through Monday, so no blog update from me on Monday, either.  Logan Shipley will cover the blogs regarding the severe weather threat and the weekend.  Expect the next guaranteed Texas Weather Discussion Video from me, posted here by 7:00 AM Tuesday...