GRADUAL CLEARING: An upper low in East Texas will slowly drift away from us in coming days, gradually diminishing the chances of showers and storms for the next couple of days. This evening, we have a mix of sun and clouds in many locations, and temperatures are only in the low to mid 70s across much of the region. The average high for Dallas/Fort-Worth on May 26 is 86 degrees. Any isolated showers we see could linger on into the overnight hours.
We will continue to forecast periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours through Friday as the upper low continues to move out of here. The rain will not be continuous or widespread, and we will, of course, see periods of sunshine throughout. The overall pattern remains unsettled, and it is likely that the spots that do get wet will pick up an additional 0.15 inches of rain.
If sufficient instability can develop, we have the potential for a few severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening. The SPC has a low end "marginal risk" (level 1/5) of severe storms defined for the southern end of the North Texas region, with a higher severe risk further south toward Austin and San Antonio.
Where stronger storms develop, hail and strong wind gusts will be possible.
THE WEEKEND: A very dry airmass for the end of May drops in here Friday, keeping us dry for a long time. The days will be mostly sunny with a tad lower humidity values, and after morning lows in the mid 60s, highs will be in the mid 80s, about average for late May.
NEXT WEEK: Dry weather continues for most of the week with slowly increasing heat and humidity levels. We will likely reach the lower 90s by Wednesday.
TROPICS: Showers and storms located over the northwestern Bahamas, extreme northeastern Florida, near Atlantic waters are in conjunction with an elongated surface trough interacting with an upper-level disturbance. Despite a weak surface low forming within the trough near Orlando, little, if any, further development of the system is expected as a result of land interaction, strong shear, and an abundance of dry air in the mid-levels.
Development or not, heavy rain could cause flooding over portions of the Carolinas tonight and Wednesday. Gusty winds could produce rough marine conditions and life-threatening surf and rip currents along the northeastern Florida, Georgia, and the Carolina coasts through tomorrow.
Look for the next blog update here by 7:00 PM tomorrow.
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