SeVere threat increasIng for tomorrow afternoon

While it's been a chilly/cloudy day, things change heading into your Tuesday.

A warm front lifts northward overnight, bringing in warm and humid air tonight. We will wake up to the upper 60s to near 70°F with some very humid air.

As I've been advertising in the past several days, a strong cold front will move in late tomorrow morning. Well, things have changed in newest guidance. The cold front in the past several days was expected to move in between 10am to the midday hour with isolated storms, some of which would be severe.

In the newest model data, the cold front looks to move into the northwestern areas of the metroplex (i.e. Denton & Collin Counties) near 2-3PM. It will approach the immediate Dallas/Fort Worth area by 4-5PM. A squall line of storms will develop along this in Montague, Grayson, and Northern Denton and Collin counties. Storms may produce very large hail and damaging winds. We will watch the potential of discrete storm development in DFW and areas in Central Texas. Any of these storms will produce very large hail, damaging winds, and a threat of rotating supercells capable of tornadoes. The squall line of strong storms will be on top of the DFW metroplex by 3-5PM producing quarter to golf ball size hail, 65mph winds, and possibly a tornado or two.

The storms will move southeast of the DFW area by 6-7PM. They will continue to produce a severe risk in East Texas and areas in East Central Texas.

I have officially decided to issue a WEATHER ALERT DAY tomorrow for the DFW area. I will be issuing these on days of severe weather, extreme warmth or cold, flooding rains, or icy days or snowy days. This one obviously is for severe weather.

We will have colder air Wednesday with highs in the mid 60s. Warmer air returns Thursday under partly sunny skies.

A cold front will bring a chance of showers and storms on Friday, some of which may be severe.

Some cool air returns Saturday with highs in the 60s after spotty morning storms.

We quickly warm up Sunday into the 80s with a risk of isolated supercells. Severe weather is likely during this time.

Jonathan Williams
Weather Forecaster
Storm Specialist
NWS/NOAA Ambassador