RADAR CHECK - Storms are along the Red River this morning, moving generally northeast...
We could see more development later this morning, but I don't expect anything too severe. If a storm or two do turn severe this morning, they would most likely produce heavy rain and hail. Gusty winds may not be completely be out of the question. Today will be a very mild day in North Texas; temperatures are already in the low to mid 70s this morning, we expect to see a high in the upper 80s for most of the region. Some places might reach 90 degrees, especially for our areas to the west.
FRIDAY THE 13TH NTX WEATHER SITUATION - After some crying and model data analysis, not much has changed since yesterday. A band of showers and potential storms will push to the east later this morning. Then, by the afternoon hours, redevelopment is possible for areas to the east of Dallas. These storms will develop and intensify as they move east towards East Texas where a more volatile atmosphere is in place. Severe storms are the most likely where the SPC has defined an "enhanced" risk and the standard "slight" risk for severe storms.
PLACEMENT - Most of the instability will be in east Texas, along and east of the dryline. However, a few severe storms is not out of the question for North Texas, though.
THREATS - For those that see some severe in East Texas, the main issue may come from very large hail in some spots, but a few bouts of damaging winds and an isolated tornado or two is also possible. The tornado potential will be maximized in Louisiana and Arkansas, where they have the best combination of helicity and shear.
Again, this is typical stuff that we see in April, nothing unusual. Just be prepared in case something does happen.
THE WEEKEND - We will remain warm and windy through most of the weekend with sunny skies. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s.
NEXT WEEK - Most of next week for now looks mild and dry with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. There is evidence that rain returns during the latter half of the week, which could help our Panhandle’s drought situation a little bit. See the Texas Weather Discussion Video for more details.
I will be down in Corpus Christi for four days starting tomorrow... Jonathan Williams should have the blog updates covered this weekend, and I’ll try my best to push blogs Monday and Tuesday!