VERY COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON: A dry continental air mass continues to affect much of the state today, and we continue to enjoy sunshine in full force with lower humidity. Temperatures are around seasonal averages, mostly in the low 90s. Tonight will be clear and pleasant with lows in 60-66 degree range by daybreak.
TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Not much change in the overall weather pattern, as very dry air remains in place. Sunny, warm days with fair and pleasant nights. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s, with lows mostly in the mid 60s. Cooler spots will enter the 50s chat each morning.
NEXT WEEK: How many times must I say it, but the June weather pattern continues. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s for the foreseeable future as we see a slow rise in humidity levels. Weather will continue to stay dry with only an occasional isolated shower.
TROPICS: A disorganized complex of showers located 200 miles east of the Windward Islands is associated with a tropical wave. Significant development is not expected due to the unfavorable environment. The rest of the Atlantic Basin remains quiet.
ON THIS DAY IN 1915: The twister that hit near Mullinville, KS was a mile wide multi-vortex tornado that swept away an entire farm and threw a trio of mules a distance of two miles. However, the storm moved so slowly that people were able to get out of its way and there wasn't a single death or even an injury.
DRY AIR IN NORTH TEXAS: As a result of a rare June cold front, dewpoints are lower than in recent days, followed by a fresh northwesterly breeze. The radar continues to be dry for this evening and tonight, and not many clouds are around, either.
We will have another cool night as dry air hangs around through much of the state.
TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Dry air equals sunny days, cooler nights, and lower humidity tomorrow through Sunday. Highs will be in the low 90s, lows well into the 60s. Cooler spots may see lows in the 50s once again tomorrow. Very refreshing for this time of the year in North Texas. It will be a good break from high humidity and random pop-up storms.
NEXT WEEK: The quiet weather continues. Highs will be in the 95-98 degree range. While humidity levels will slowly rise, widespread rain activity is not expected. We will just mention a couple of isolated showers over the course of the week.
TROPICS: A non-tropical low pressure is located over the central Atlantic Ocean, several hundred miles to the east of the Bermuda. Development of a tropical cyclone is not expected due to unfavorable environmental conditions. The low is forecast to dissipate tomorrow when it slowly moves to the west. The rest of the Atlantic Basin is quiet.
ON THIS DAY IN 1938: Clyde, TX suffered the effects of what was likely an F5 tornado. Several homes completely vanished. One family tried to escape the tornado by car, and inadvertently drove right into it when the twister made a sudden unexpected turn. Four of the six occupants of the car were killed. The two survivors were found half a mile away from the rest of the bodies.
Look for the next Texas Weather Blog here by 4:00 PM tomorrow...
Owner/Founder - ApexStorm
HOT TUESDAY: It was a very hot June day here in the metroplex and much of North-Texas. Here are some of the temperature readings at around 3PM...
DFW AIRPORT 96
DALLAS LOVE 99
FTW MEACHAM 93
GRAND PRAIRIE 99
In wake of a cold front, drier air and cooler conditions can be expected for the next few days. Overnight lows will be in the low 60s. Some of the cooler spots will see lows in the 50s. Some showers are possible in East Texas and the Brazos Valley. No severe storms, but the storms could produce heavy rainfall, and small hail.
TOMORROW: After a rather rare June cold front, tomorrow will be a different kind of day. This morning, and early afternoon, we experienced dewpoints in the 70-75 degree range. Tomorrow, they will drop into the low 40s as much drier air takes over. We will be noticeably cooler with highs mostly in the upper 80s with a breezy northwesterly wind. The more south you go, the more of a chance you have of seeing low 90s.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: We will continue to enjoy lower humidity towards the end of the week with sunny days. Dry weather will continue through the weekend with sunny, warm days and pleasant nights. Cooler spots will drop to the 50s each morning, with low 60s generally across the board.
NEXT WEEK: The weather pattern continues to look very quiet. Moisture levels slowly rise, and thus, a few showers could show up to the south over the latter half of the week, but no sign of any widespread rain for a very long time.
TROPICS: A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the central Atlantic Ocean, a few hundred miles east of the Bermuda. Development of this system is highly unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions. The low is expected to dissipate in a few days. The rest of the Atlantic Basin is quiet.
ON THIS DAY IN 1953: An F4 tornado hit Worcester, MA causing 94 fatalities. The tornado touched down in Petersham, traveled through Worcester, and on to Southborough. Debris was carried eastward and fell in the Boston area. About 4000 houses and buildings were destroyed, totaling more than $52 million in damages.
Look for the next blog update around the same time tomorrow... Have a great night!
Owner - ApexStorm
RADAR CHECK: While all of the metro remains dry this evening, a couple of isolated thunderstorms continue to rotate through extreme Northeastern Texas this evening, on the west side of the circulation of Tropical Depression Cristobal, which is now over Southern Arkansas.
A very moist airmass will continue to stay in place tomorrow as a "death ridge" continues to be in place over the region. We will warm to the upper 90s, and some places will see their first 100 degree day of the year. The average first 100 degree day in North Texas falls on the first of July. If we don't hit it tomorrow, it will be awfully close, for sure.
Then, a rare June cold front will push into the region tomorrow afternoon, which will help to usher in drier air and breezier winds. The timing of the cold front will determine whether some spots see 100 degrees or not. One way or another, the drier weather combined with breezy conditions will spark fire concerns tomorrow afternoon and evening.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: A very dry airmass in wake of a cold front will slightly cool us off by a few degrees. Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday will be very pleasant days for June. Expect a good supply of sunshine, lower humidity, and cooler nights. Highs will be in the low 90s, but lows will be well down in the 60s, and cooler spots will hit the upper 50s.
Not much change for the weekend as dry air continues to hang in here. The sky will be mostly sunny Saturday and Sunday with highs in the mid 90s and lows in the low 70s.
NEXT WEEK: Moist air begins to make a return early next week. As such, we will bring back the chance of a random, isolated shower or storm on Monday, and keep it in the forecast on a daily basis through the end of the week. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s on most days.
TROPICS: Tropical Depression Cristobal is over Arkansas and will continue to weaken. The rest of the Atlantic Basin is quiet, and tropical storm formation is not expected this week.
ON THIS DAY IN 2001: Tropical Storm Allison hits Houston for the second time in three days. Louisiana and Southern Texas were inundated with rain, as Baton Rouge received over 18 inches over a couple of days. Some portions of Texas accumulated 36 inches by June 11.
The past week has shown North Texas plenty of sunshine and heat, with more of that to come in the future. Aside from the few scattered storms last week, it was a mostly dry, hot week with days in the 80s and 90s, and looking forward, summer heat is the new normal for North Texas. What can we expect for the upcoming week?
Tropical Storm Cristobal, who is currently residing in the Gulf of Mexico, will be making landfall to our east in Louisiana and making its way up through the United States on Sunday through Tuesday. There is a fairly decent chance that the outer remnants of Cristobal make its way to DFW as a few rain bands rotate around our area as the low pressure system disperses. It’s not a given, as tropical storm paths are still difficult to predict even this close out, but the possibility still exists. Regardless, as a result of Cristobal, a spike in temperature will happen on Tuesday with our first possibility of triple digits this year. Compressional heating as a result of a dry air on the backside of the tropical storm, in a process called “subsidence”, will result in record heat for lots of Texas, and it’s possible we could also set records, depending on the speed of the incoming cold front as well. The cold front will only lower temperatures a little bit but it will drop dew points, making the air less muggy.
Many of you have heard talk of the so-called “death ridge” that has placed itself over the United States. What does this mean? In its most basic form, troughs are associated with low pressure systems and ridges are associated with high pressure systems. High pressure systems, especially in the summer, can lead to rising temperatures, whereas low pressure systems, commonly associated with cold fronts, cool the air, due to the interaction of the upper and lower dynamics of the atmosphere. The death ridge brings calm winds and strong cap inversions that make all moisture in the area unable to form as rain clouds, creating hotter, more intolerable days. Thankfully, if we have a death ridge, it is quite mild, as temperatures likely won’t break triple digits aside from after the tropical storm. There will also be a number of chances for low pressure systems to come in and potentially give us relief later on the week, though that is less likely at this point in time. For the foreseeable future, DFW will be subject to dry, 90 degree days with plenty of sunshine, for everyone to enjoy whatever pool they can socially distance themselves at.
Stay cool, stay hydrated, and stay weather aware!
ANOTHER QUIET MORNING: After a round of strong to severe storms overnight for some of our northwestern counties, we are dry once again this morning.
The forecast will not change much for the foreseeable future; each day will feature mostly sunny skies with increasing humidity. Highs will today will be in the upper 90s. Heat Indices will be in the danger zone once again today, exceeding the triple digits.
THE WEEKEND: Not much change. Much of the same weather continues for the weekend with relatively dry weather tomorrow and Sunday with a great supply of sunshine and afternoon highs around the upper 90s. Showers will be pretty unlikely for the weekend.
NEXT WEEK: Very humid air will cover the region for the beginning of next week, as Cristobal passes to the east, continuing to leave us in a very dry, humid airmass. We might experience a few isolated showers and storms on Monday, but, we will quickly warm on Tuesday. There is high confidence that Tuesday might be DFW's first official 100 degree day of the year. The average first 100 degree day for DFW is usually July 1, so we are way ahead of schedule. Heat indices will likely reach the danger zone once again on Tuesday, so a Heat Advisory will likely be needed to address this concern. The rest of the week will feature more dry weather with highs in the mid 90s.
CRISTOBAL: The system is still inland this morning over the Yucatan of Mexico. It is a tropical depression with sustained winds of 35 mph. It will begin its journey northward into the Gulf of Mexico tonight, and should regain tropical storm status. No real change has been made to the NHC forecast track; landfall will take place Sunday night along the Louisiana coast as a tropical storm.
Hurricane strength is unlikely, as the system will soon encounter dry air and moderate shear. Tropical storm watches will be required for portions of the Gulf later today.
ON THIS DAY IN 1976: When water began leaking from Idaho's new Teton Dam, there seemed to be no cause for alarm. On this date, warnings were frantic that the dam was about to break. As workers tried to shore up the crumbling dam, it crumbled shortly after 11 AM, sending 180 billion gallons of water pouring through Teton Canyon. 11 people lost their lives, but the toll would have been much higher if the dam had failed at night and residents had been asleep.
Look for the next blog update tomorrow by Logan Shipley... enjoy the day!
OCEAN OF HUMIDITY: A hot, muggy airmass will hang over North Texas for the foreseeable future, meaning each day, we will forecast partly to mostly sunny skies, which a chance of a random isolated shower or storm. There isn't a way of knowing exactly who will get the storm, just remember to check the radar from time to time. The radar will be very quiet this afternoon, but a weakening complex of severe thunderstorms will move southeast overnight, and rain is possible in some areas by 1PM. Highs will be in the mid 90s, seasonably warm for the beginning of June.
THE WEEKEND: No real chance for the weekend. We remain dry, humid, and hot with mostly sunny skies on both days. Highs will continue to be in the middle to upper 90s.
NEXT WEEK: We will introduce a chance of scattered showers and storms on Monday as Cristobal moves northward through Louisiana and Arkansas, but the general pattern will not change much. Mostly sunny, hot, humid days with mostly dry conditions. Highs will remain mostly in the middle to upper 90s through the week. There is some hint that one of those days could be the first 100 degree day of the year, but we will believe when we see it.
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL: This morning, the system continues to weaken, as winds are down to 40 mph. The center of Cristobal was located over Southern Mexico, and is nearly stationary... A movement toward the east then northeast is expected later today, and a subsequent northward motion should occur through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center will move over the landmass of eastern Mexico today and tonight. The center is then forecast to move back over the Gulf tomorrow or tomorrow night, then the Central Gulf on Saturday.
No significant change has been made to the NHC forecast track. The tropical storm is expected to move into the Louisiana coast Sunday night with winds of 60-65 mph.
The circulation center will move through Louisiana and Arkansas Monday and Monday night, whilst weakening.
ON THIS DAY IN 1877: A tornado of F4 intensity touched down just to the west of Mt. Carmel, Illinois and moved northeast, devastating the town. 20 businesses and 100 homes were severely damaged or destroyed. 16 people and as many as 30 were killed, with 100 injured.
Look for the next blog post tomorrow at around the same time... Enjoy the day!
Owner/Founder - ApexStorm
HOT, HUMID DAYS: The radar is quiet across North Texas this morning, but we expect the return of isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, accordingly. Most of the showers will come from around 12:00 to 9:00 PM, and the chance of any one spot getting wet is about one in three. The high will be in the low to mid 90s.
There will not be much change tomorrow and Friday. Warm, humid days with "isolated, mostly afternoon and evening showers and storms". There is no way of exactly knowing when and where the storms appear due to the random nature. You just have to ensure to keep an eye on the radar if you have outdoor activity planned. Highs will remain in the 92-95 degree range.
THE WEEKEND: Not much change; We will continue to roll with the persistent early summer forecast of "mix of sun and clouds with daily chances of isolated, mostly afternoon and evening showers and storms". Highs will be in the middle to upper 90s.
NEXT WEEK: We expect an increase in the amount of showers and storms on Monday and Tuesday as a response of the tropical moisture being pulled to the north due to Tropical Storm Cristobal. The highest coverage will most likely come on Monday as Cristobal passes to the west of the state, on its journey northward. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s, lows in the mid 70s.
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL: The system in the far southwestern Gulf of Mexico is packing sustained winds of 60 mph this morning. According to the forecast track, the center will cross the southern Bay of Campeche coast later today and move inland over eastern Mexico tonight and tomorrow. The center is then forecast to move back over the Bay of Campeche tomorrow night and Friday.
Slight increase in strength is possible until the center crosses the coast, which, at that point, will weaken once again. Restrengthening is expected after Cristobal moves back over water tomorrow night and Friday.
The latest NHC track places Cristobal on the Louisiana coast Sunday night as a high-end tropical storm. The main impact will come from heavy rain, flooding, and waterspouts/tornadoes.
ON THIS DAY IN 1993: (This is something North Texans should be familiar with) Early morning severe thunderstorms produced huge hail across northern Oklahoma. Hail, up to the size of six inches in Enid, went through roofs, damaged three fighter jets at Vance Air Force Base, and did $500,000 in damage at a car dealership. Wind gusts reached 70 MPH at the base as well. Hail damage to crops was estimated at $70 million.
Look for the next blog update at around the same time tomorrow... Enjoy the day!
Owner/Founder - ApexStorm
WARM JUNE WEATHER: We are forecasting a high in the upper 80s to low 90s for most North Texas communities today. The sky will be partly cloudy, and the best chance of isolated showers and storms this afternoon will lie over the northeast corner of the region. The average high for Dallas/Fort-Worth on June second is 88.
The ridge will continue to build through the rest of the week, and we will bring rising temperatures to the forecast again. We will remain mostly dry with a mix of sun and clouds each day. We will gradually get hotter with afternoon highs ranging from the low to mid 90s with overnight lows generally in the middle 70s.
THE WEEKEND: Not much change. Typical weather for early June should continue with warm, humid conditions. There could be a slight uptick in moisture levels with a slight chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday, depending on the track of the tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. Mix of sun and clouds with highs in the 90s.
NEXT WEEK: Again, our weather will be largely dependent on the tropical situation. If the system moves into Louisiana, or Southeast Texas (as it appears now) and stays to the east, the week will be warm with a mix of sun and clouds daily with highs in the 90s. Otherwise, expect an uptick of moisture with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms for at least the beginning of the week.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE: The third tropical depression this year developed late yesterday over the Bay of Campeche in the far Southwest Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to become Tropical Storm Cristobal today, and it will move very little, if, at all, over the next 48 hours. The system will then move northward this weekend, and the NHC forecasts the center to be over the Gulf of Mexico by Saturday night.
From there, higher landfall probabilities lie over the upper Texas and western Louisiana coast Sunday night or Monday, as a possible hurricane. Of course, there is no skill in a specific forecast in terms of specific landfall point or intensity of the system. Typically, the biggest threat from early season tropical system come from heavy rain and flooding.
ON THIS DAY IN 1998: A tornado touched down in Frostburg, Maryland on June 2, 1998 at 9:45 PM. This was a part of a killer tornado outbreak of tornadoes that moved southeast from Pennsylvania. The storm first entered Garrett county, impacting the town of Finzel. From there, it moved up and over Big Savage Mountain in Allegany county and ripped through the northern portion of Frostburg, where it reached peak intensity as it crossed the ridge. Winds were estimated between 210 and 250 mph (which was considered F4 criteria on the Fujita Tornado Damage Scale). This was the first tornado to be officially rated an "F4" in the State of Maryland.
Look for the next blog update by noon tomorrow. Enjoy the day!
Owner/Founder - ApexStorm
AVERAGE AFTERNOON: On a Monday afternoon in June, temperatures are mostly where they should be for this time of the year. Here are some readings at around 3PM...
Some active scattered thunderstorms are ongoing in west-central Texas, and should continue to stay to the south of the metroplex, before dissipating tonight. Tonight will be mostly fair for much of the region.
We will mention the risk of isolated showers tomorrow afternoon, but most of the region should stay dry with a partly sunny sky. Temperatures will reach the upper 80s once again.
REST OF THE WEEK: Not much change. As the ridge becomes more established, temperatures will continue to increase with time. There still exists the chance of an isolated shower or storm during the afternoon and evening hours, mostly between 12:00 and 9:00 PM. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with a mix of sun and clouds daily, turning mostly sunny on Wednesday and Friday.
THE WEEKEND: We will continue to roll with a persistent forecast; mostly sunny days, highs in the mid to upper 90s with the chance of a random pop-up storm during the peak of daytime heating. Very typical summertime weather for North Texas.
NEXT WEEK: Our weather for next week will be largely dependent on now Tropical Depression Three, located over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Global ensemble models have entertained the idea of a landfall in or around the Texas coast, with possible travel further to the north. If this happens, of course, that would mean an uptick of the coverage of showers and thunderstorms during the beginning of the week. However, there is also the chance this stays well to the east, which will leave us with a dry forecast, as convection from a tropical storm usually takes places to the north and east of the circulation center. For now, we will include a small chance of rain everyday for the beginning of next week with highs in the mid 80s.
2020 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON: The first day of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season is today, which will run until November 30th. Long-term averages for the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12, 6, and 3, respectively.
The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season names are Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, and Wilfred.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE: At 4PM today, the NHC posted their first advisory for Tropical Depression Three. Satellite imagery and radar observations from Mexico indicate that the are of disturbed weather centered near the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is gradually becoming better organized. This depression will move west-northwestward over the Bay of Campeche, and a tropical storm is likely to form tonight or Tuesday. The system is then forecast to drift westward or west-southwestward over the southern Bay of Campeche through the middle of the week. Persons in and along the coast of the Bay of Campeche should monitor the progress of this disturbance, as tropical storm warnings have already been issued for a portion of this area.
Once this becomes a tropical storm, the name will be "Cristobal", and long-range ensemble data indicates the highest impact potential to be over the Texas or Louisiana coast in about a week. Until this system gets more organized and we get better analysis from hurricane hunter aircraft, there is no way of knowing exactly the final landfall mark, or the peak intensity.
Look for the next blog update on here by noon tomorrow...
Owner/Founder - ApexStorm
As you might recall, last week I called for some prolonged heavy rain events and a wet pattern to last us into June. And, as you are probably well aware, it has been very dry and warm the past 3 days in DFW. So, in summary, I was wrong. However, so too were the models, as the ULL came through way faster and hammered Central Texas with severe weather and allowed the ridging to form, giving us a plethora of hot and mostly cloudless days to work with for the end of May. So, what does this mean for North Texas?
EARLY NEXT WEEK:
A fairly uneventful start to the week will bring us plenty of sunshine for Sunday and Monday. While many places in Texas, especially the hill country, have considerable chances for rain and thunderstorms, we will stay dry in DFW. Temperatures could wander into the low 90s, but I expect them to follow our 10-Day Forecast pretty closely. The upper level ridge forming will make conditions extremely unfavorable for any sort of break in the pattern. However, there is a chance that an inverse trough (troughs usually go from North to South) brings moisture from the gulf by midweek, so there is a possibility for some low chances for rain on Tuesday and Wednesday that become increasingly higher the more southeast you go. However, since this ridge is quite strong (a classic omega blocking pattern taking shape), any rain will be minimal at best as it would have to traverse through adverse conditions to reach us.
END OF WEEK:
The inactive pattern will continue as we see average to slightly above temperatures for our transition into summer. In addition, we will be lucky to see very low, if any, chances for rain through Saturday. While this is lame for the meteorologists of the world, it’s very exciting for the general public. Since we have been dealing with a very complex and active pattern for most of May, this break in weather should allow for plenty of outdoor activities like running, biking, and other socially distant ways to enjoy the outdoors. Heat may become an issue by the end of the week, but we will more than likely stay within double digit temperatures for the foreseeable future.
While the “boring” pattern persists through May and into early June, by next weekend all could possibly change. Many models are showing the possibility of Texas’s first tropical storm threat and, while it is entirely too far out to know if it will happen, it provides some uncertainty with what kind of weather DFW could be experiencing. An Upper Level Low is expected to form over Mexico and potentially spin off northward into the Gulf of Mexico. Early forecasting seems to indicate that shear will be relatively high over the Gulf, limiting the favorability for tropical development, but the ULL could turn into something tropical despite this. However, the block over the U.S. is likely going to still exist by next weekend, with the persistent ridge also making conditions unfavorable. It’s likely that DFW won’t be affected, but it could become a big rain producer for much of Coastal Texas and, if the path of the low moves due North, could provide some storms for us as well, if timing goes well enough for it. It’s extremely early and extremely volatile to forecast, as there are so many different variables that play into these results, so I will refrain from making any comments on what I think will happen. That being said, it’s important to stay weather aware and keep up to date with what’s happening. A good way to do this is to read Donovan’s daily weather blogs, in order to see what’s happening in the immediate future.
Stay safe, stay hydrated, and stay weather aware!
RADAR CHECK: Strong to severe storms have developed in the Big Country this afternoon and are continuing to move to the southeast this evening. Some of these storms are severe with 60 mph winds and up to half-dollar sized hail, with flooding being a possibility with those that experience torrential downpours. The SPC maintains a low-end "marginal risk" of severe thunderstorms for much of the southern half of the North Texas region through the evening hours. The heavier storms could produce small hail and gusty winds.
Temperatures remain mostly on average with readings mostly in the mid to upper 80s. The average high for Dallas/Fort-Worth on May 27 is 84.
The upper low will continue to move slowly eastward, and we expect mostly dry conditions tomorrow, followed by completely dry weather by Friday. An isolated storm or two is possible on Thursday. We expect highs in the mid 80s tomorrow and Friday, with a good supply of sunshine.
THE WEEKEND: Unusually dry air drops into the state over the weekend. Look for sunny days, fair nights, with a tad lower humidity levels. We will continue with highs around 85-87 Saturday and Sunday... many places will see lows in the low 60s Saturday morning. Very average to the end of May here in North Texas.
NEXT WEEK: The weather looks very dry next week with a warming trend. Afternoon highs will reach the low to mid 90s by the end of the week. Showers and storms will be very limited in number, if any.
TROPICS: Tropical Storm Bertha formed quickly early this morning, just off the South Carolina coast. It is now inland, moving northward producing heavy rain as a tropical depression. The rest of the Atlantic Basin is quiet. The official start of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season is June 1.
Look for the next weather discussion and blog update by noon tomorrow.
Owner - ApexStorm
GRADUAL CLEARING: An upper low in East Texas will slowly drift away from us in coming days, gradually diminishing the chances of showers and storms for the next couple of days. This evening, we have a mix of sun and clouds in many locations, and temperatures are only in the low to mid 70s across much of the region. The average high for Dallas/Fort-Worth on May 26 is 86 degrees. Any isolated showers we see could linger on into the overnight hours.
We will continue to forecast periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours through Friday as the upper low continues to move out of here. The rain will not be continuous or widespread, and we will, of course, see periods of sunshine throughout. The overall pattern remains unsettled, and it is likely that the spots that do get wet will pick up an additional 0.15 inches of rain.
If sufficient instability can develop, we have the potential for a few severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening. The SPC has a low end "marginal risk" (level 1/5) of severe storms defined for the southern end of the North Texas region, with a higher severe risk further south toward Austin and San Antonio.
Where stronger storms develop, hail and strong wind gusts will be possible.
THE WEEKEND: A very dry airmass for the end of May drops in here Friday, keeping us dry for a long time. The days will be mostly sunny with a tad lower humidity values, and after morning lows in the mid 60s, highs will be in the mid 80s, about average for late May.
NEXT WEEK: Dry weather continues for most of the week with slowly increasing heat and humidity levels. We will likely reach the lower 90s by Wednesday.
TROPICS: Showers and storms located over the northwestern Bahamas, extreme northeastern Florida, near Atlantic waters are in conjunction with an elongated surface trough interacting with an upper-level disturbance. Despite a weak surface low forming within the trough near Orlando, little, if any, further development of the system is expected as a result of land interaction, strong shear, and an abundance of dry air in the mid-levels.
Development or not, heavy rain could cause flooding over portions of the Carolinas tonight and Wednesday. Gusty winds could produce rough marine conditions and life-threatening surf and rip currents along the northeastern Florida, Georgia, and the Carolina coasts through tomorrow.
Look for the next blog update here by 7:00 PM tomorrow.
Owner - ApexStorm
RAINY MEMORIAL DAY: It has been very wet today with most of the Metroplex and North Texas region receiving rain at some point in the day. The general consensus has received an inch of rain over the past 24 hours, with many isolated spots of three inches or greater. The sky is mostly cloudy, and temperatures are in the 67-91 degree range this late afternoon. Rain will continue to move to the north with time.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: The upper-level trough in our state will begin to weaken and gradually move to the east, towards the Deep South. This will bring a noticeable decrease in the amount of showers and storms to the region during the mid-week period. Look for occasional showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. Highs will warm to the upper 70s to low 80s due to the lack of rain-cooled air. Rain distribution will not be even, but many communities will likely see an additional quarter of an inch of rain before the weekend.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The weather will trend drier by the weekend as an unusually dry airmass builds across the south-central US. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday are looking very pleasant with mostly sunny skies, lower humidity levels, and continued cool nights. Highs will be in the 80-85 degree range, and lows will mostly be in the upper 60s.
NEXT WEEK: The first half of the week will continue to feature a dry airmass. Scattered storms might return to the forecast by the end of the week.
ON THIS DAY IN 2008: A rare, large, and destructive EF5 tornado created a 43-mile long path across Butler and Black Hawk counties in Iowa. This tornado killed eight people, injured dozens and caused several millions of dollars in damage. The tornado was nearly three-quarters of a mile wide as it moved through the southern end of Parkersburg. A third of the town was affected by devastating damage with nearly 200 homes destroyed. This storm produced the first EF5 tornado in Iowa since June 13, 1976 and only the third EF5 tornado to occur in the United States in the past ten years.
Look for the next North Texas Weather blog update by 5:30 PM tomorrow...
After a relatively dry and warm Saturday, clusters of scattered showers and storms returned to the metroplex today, bringing our tentative May rainfall up to 4.21 inches at DFW, despite local areas seeing even more rain. However, looking forward through the next week, the story will be more of the same as rain continues to play a factor every single day.
Throughout the last week, and through the weekend, mesoscale convective systems (which I will refer to as MCS) plagued North Texas with spotty, scattered cells dropping plenty of rain for some and missing others entirely. The prevalence of multiple daily MCS will become prevalent throughout the week ahead, making it an extremely complicated setup for all forecasters as some places in Texas may see up to 5 inches of rain while others barely see a drop.
SEVERE SETUP OVERNIGHT:
The first wave of scattered storms will develop this afternoon for much of Texas, with the possibility of hail for some. As the storms developed around DFW, they could be accompanied by up to golf ball sized hail and gusty winds caused by significant downdrafts. In addition, storms are likely to move into DFW overnight from the west, which could intercept the slow moving MCS that is around North Texas now. The squall line will be weakening as it enters the metroplex, but it is still plausible that some areas receive hail or straight-line winds.
EARLY NEXT WEEK:
Monday and Tuesday will continue to see multiple MCS move throughout the metroplex, with it being difficult to know who exactly will and won’t receive rain. The shortwave from the Rockies that moved in over the weekend, combined with a weakness found in the gulf, means that our rain profile will transition from severe storms to more of a tropical-like rain pattern, akin to places like Orlando. Clouds and rain will keep temperatures in the high 70s, but high dew points indicate that flash flooding will be extremely possible for areas that receive high amounts of rainfall, especially with the high amounts of continuous rain and high precip action rates that could happen early next week. Most of Texas will see heavy rain but scattered thunderstorms are still possible. That being said, the severe risk is considerably lower for the early part of next week than has been with previous events. All of this is the early shift to an eventual wet pattern that could be in place over Texas for weeks to come.
As the rest of the week progresses, a slow-moving ULL vortex will make its way over DFW by mid week, exacerbating the continuous rainfall conditions by sitting over parts of North Texas from late Tuesday through Friday. Similar to ULL events of the past (such as the one that brought a record 12 inches of snow to DFW in February of 2010!) indicate that the threat of floods will continue to increase throughout the week as high levels of sustained precipitation will impact weakened areas and potentially cause flash flooding. However, this combined ULL and MCS event is still a few days out, so being able to anticipate what areas will receive the most amount of rain is impossible at this time. While it’s likely that all parts of NTX could receive well over 2 inches of rain over the next 5 days, it’s not improbable that some areas receive rain every day while others only see rain one day. However, continue to prepare as if it will affect you—flooding is extremely dangerous and if you live in low-lying areas or around weak dams/smaller streams, pay extremely close attention to the weather as the week develops, as it will become apparent quickly whether or not the flood risk is greater or less than it appears to be right now. Throughout this whole event, temperatures are to remain in 70s mostly, as although highs are forecasted to be in the 80s, the prevalence of rain that is forecasted and the dew points indicate that temperatures will likely be suppressed by the rain. In summary, rain will be here to stay for this week and 2-5 inches of rain is extremely likely for most everyone.
The wet pattern continues! Confidence is increasing that we are nowhere near done with this wet pattern, and it could persist for weeks. There is an excerpt from the FWD AFD that I think best sums up how things are looking for the end of May and early June. “The rainfall will further strengthen the troughing aloft, which will in turn lead to more rain events.” As we get these prolonged, heavy rain events, it will, by default, delay a lot of ridging that brings us a lot of our summertime, dry heat. It’s looking more and more likely that we will continue to dodge triple digit weather in favor of wet conditions.
Stay safe, stay dry, and stay weather aware!
EARLY MORNING WAKE-UP CALL: After midnight, a lone thunderstorm out near Wichita Falls began making a turn to the south, cycling as it made its way to the metroplex. By the 4:30-5:30 timeframe, the storm produced frequent cloud to ground lightning, some damaging winds, and golf-ball sized hail. The NWS Office in Fort Worth measured 1.5" hail at 4:26 am.
The storm has weakened and has subsequently continued to push to the east/southeast. We will remain partly sunny and dry for at least the early afternoon hours, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY OVERNIGHT: A rather unstable airmass is expected to hold and move south this evening into tonight, and high resolution data suggests rapid development of severe thunderstorms at around sunset just to the south of Wichita Falls. SPC has issued a wind-driven
"moderate risk" (level 4 of 5) of severe storms for parts of northeast Texas and East Oklahoma. The rest of North Texas is surrounded by an "enhanced risk" (level 3 of 5) of severe storms, extending down to Central Texas.
UPDATE: AS OF 11:30 TODAY, DFW HAS NOW BEEN ADDED TO THE MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS AND VERY LARGE HAIL IS INCREASING.
TIMING: Storms will likely develop near Wichita Falls after 7PM and move southward through the region overnight. The broad window for severe storms in North Texas will be from 8PM to 7AM tomorrow morning. The focused window will be from 10PM to 4PM through the metroplex.
THREATS: Any storm clusters that form during the early stages will have the possibility of becoming quite severe, posing the threat of very large hail (up to the size of tennis balls), damaging winds, and tornadoes. Any clusters will very quickly congeal into a QLCS (quasi-linear convective system), mainly posing the risk for damaging winds, some up to hurricane force gusts of 80 mph or more (remember, damaging straight-line winds can produce tornado-like damage). The highest tornado probabilities will be focused in the northeast corner of Texas and extreme southeast Oklahoma.
RAINFALL: Rain amounts of around 1-1.5" inches is possible across the region, with isolated higher amounts. Some flooding is possible with torrential rainfall.
CALL TO ACTION: Be sure to have multiple way of receiving warnings during the overnight hours (don't rely on a siren!!!). In your safe place, make sure you have helmets for everyone in your family. If you are in a mobile home, know your location of a site built-shelter, and how to get there quickly.
This is the day to treat severe thunderstorm warnings very seriously. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally produce tornadoes and tornado-like straight line wind speeds. Make sure your NOAA Weather Radio is on overnight, so it can wake you up if you are sleep while these storms are coming through. Also, make sure you are in our text-messaging system (text @apexstorm to 81010).
Owner - ApexStorm
After a nice Saturday, a continued nice day is expected today with highs in the lower 80s expected with abundant sunshine. A few more clouds will be possible later this afternoon, but dry weather is expected.
Tomorrow overall will remain fairly uneventful, but a decaying area of showers and storms will dive out of Oklahoma early tomorrow afternoon and may set up an outflow boundary somewhere in North Texas. This may allow for a very low storm chance, however no severe weather is expected. Skies will be partly cloudy with highs in the low to mid 80s. A few storms may develop N/W of the region tomorrow evening, and could make a run at our western/northern zones tomorrow night. At this time, severe weather is not expected as weakening is likely. Lows will remain in the upper 60s.
Tuesday is shaping up to be an active severe weather day across parts of the state. While most of the day will be dry, a dryline will sharpen out to the west and will be the focus (along with a cold front in Oklahoma) for thunderstorm development. There are uncertainties about a capping inversion aloft preventing storm initiation, however some models (incl. Euro) have shown rather explosive supercellular development just west of I/35 late afternoon on Tuesday and moving eastward into our area during the early evening hours.
The Storm Prediction Center has already outlined much of the area in a "Slight Risk" for severe weather on Tuesday for storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Remember, the initial threat of severe weather is conditional, but if storms develop they could be rather intense.
Notice the area inside the black circle (includes much of North Texas, including DFW) where the SPC has concerns for significant severe weather. (hatched risk) We are closely monitoring this.
Tuesday afternoon and evening isn't our only risk of storms. As a cold front slides in during the early overnight hours, an additional area of storms could develop. The best chance will be along and east of I/35 where better bouyancy and moisture remains. These storms could also be severe, primarily with damaging winds and a low tornado threat. Large hail still isn't ruled out with these storms.
The rest of the week will be much calmer but remaining warm with highs in the 80s.
Our next storm system will approach by next Sunday, and increasing southerly flow could shoot temperatures into the 90s with storm chances increasing, especially into early next week. Given the climatology, severe weather would certainly be in the realm of possibility. However, this is a week out and too many of uncertainties exist to get into any sort of detail. Have a great Sunday!
THIS AFTERNOON: It warmed very nicely to the mid 70s around lunch time! We will continue to see the temperature warm to the low 80s during the late afternoon and evening hours.
THREAT OF SUPERCELLS TOMORROW: Let's just preface this blog by saying that this is the most serious threat of severe weather we have had in recent years. We saw what has been going on the past couple of Sunday's in Dixie Alley and Mississippi, and knew that our time was inevitably coming. So, here we are.
Another vigorous spring weather system will impact the Ark-La-Tex and Piney Woods region tomorrow afternoon and evening, with the threat of tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds.
SETUP: The mid-level jet will become coupled with the low-level jet by the afternoon and evening hours, especially after sunset, creating a favorable combination of lift, shear, and helicity for potentially strong tornadoes and very large to perhaps giant sized hail. The greatest probabilities for a localized episode of tornadoes is forecast from south-central Oklahoma through much of the North-Central Texas in the greatest threat of the "enhanced risk" area. In addition to the tornado risk, very large to giant sized (golf ball sized or larger) hail and wind damage will like be likely across a large part of the Ark-La-Tex region tomorrow afternoon and evening. The threat for damaging winds is expected to increase as a mesoscale convective system (MCS) moves eastward across East Texas overnight, eventually into Louisiana and Arkansas by Thursday morning.
An hour ago, the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has defined a "enhanced risk" (level 3/5) for areas along and east of I-35 and along and south of I-40 in Oklahoma and Arkansas. There is the standard "slight risk" (level 2/5) from generally to the east of Wichita Falls into the Houston area, and a "marginal risk" (level 1/5) defined as far out as Wichita Falls, Ranger, New Braunfels, and Victoria.
PLACEMENT: The position of the dryline tomorrow afternoon will determine the extent of the hail and tornado risk in North Texas. I believe the dryline will be somewhere near, or just to the west of I-35 (Denton to Waco).
TIMING: The main window for severe thunderstorms will come from around 4:00PM to 10:00 PM. The threat will initiate in Northwest Texas, shifting to the east through the evening and overnight hours.
THREATS: Thunderstorms over North-central Texas will be capable of producing very large to giant sized hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Strong tornadoes (EF2 or greater) will be possible in the North Texas region, which includes the DFW Metroplex.
CALL TO ACTION: It is late April. You know the drill. Be sure you have a way of receiving warnings. Have an action plan if you find yourself under a tornado warning polygon.
•Have a NOAA Weather Radio in your home and workplace. Ensure that it is properly programmed with a fresh battery in it in case of power outages.
•Make sure you have WEA (Wireless Emergency Alerts) enabled on your phone. Go to Settings > Notification > then scroll all the way down and make sure emergency alerts are on. Make sure you are in our free ApexStorm text messaging system as a secondary way of getting warnings. Text @apexstorm to 81010.
•Identify the safe place in your home, which is a small room (hall, closet, bathroom), on the lowest floor, near the center of your house, away from windows. In that safe place, have helmets for everyone that lives with you, portable airhorns, and hard-sole shoes.
•If you are in a tornado warning polygon, you musn't stay in a mobile home. Know where the closest site-built structure is located, and how to quickly get there.
•Protecting yourself from a tornado is the first priority when it comes to the Coronavirus pandemic. Tornadoes and hail are immediate threats to life and property; get to your safe place first, then do the best you can to prevent the spread of the virus.
Aforementioned above, there is the risk of a few tornadoes, but we will not see a system over 100 tornadoes in Dixie Alley on Easter Sunday. However, just know that all it takes it one tornado in the entire region, and if you come down your street, that is YOUR tornado event.
ANXIETY: We are all tired of the Coronavirus. We are not here to scare anyone, or add to everyone's level of worry. However, we need to do our jobs of letting you know about the severity of the weather tomorrow. If you are feeling anxious reading this, just keep in mind that even in a severe weather outbreak, the chance of your house being hit by a tornado is low.
Be sure to follow @donowx, @LoganShipleyWx, and @weltywx on Twitter, as we will be frequently posting forecast updates, warnings, and rapidly changing conditions on there.
Owner - ApexStorm
After yesterday's severe storms, it was a much nicer and calmer day in North Texas. However, our severe weather risks ramp back up in the next 24-48 hours. More details below...
FIRST OFF: A couple thunderstorms will develop late tonight near I/20, however the extent, if the lift is even enough for development, and intensity of these is uncertain. If storms develop, they will tap in to some elevated instability and strong deep layer shear. These storms could produce quarter to half dollar size hail and gusty winds. The overall severe risk is low. The SPC has outlined portions North Texas in a level 1 "Marginal Risk" for severe weather tonight.
These will clear out late tonight and we will be left with a partly to mostly cloudy day tomorrow. A few storms will be possible as a warm front lifts northward through the area dependent on a capping inversion. Strong low level instability and deep layer shear will favor a risk of supercellular structure in any storm that develops with UH near 250 m2/s2. The main risks will be large hail and damaging winds and will favor areas north/west of DFW.
We will watch as they attempt to make a run at North Texas during the evening hours. Whether or not these make the trip (nonetheless even materialize) is very uncertain at this time. Below is a more aggressive solution from the TTU-WRF.
Meanwhile, the NAM 3km favors a dry forecast with any storms well northwest of our area.
These storms will clear out of North Texas either way by early to mid morning on Wednesday, leaving us wide open in the warm sector with rapid destabilization expected. By late morning into early afternoon, we could see some development that will remain more elevated and will favor areas east of I/35 capable of large hail. However, by 3-5pm the dryline will be mixing west as our boundary layer mixes out and surface air parcels find the unstable and bouyant airmass set up east of the dryline. This will be the area to watch for initial supercellular development (near I/35) capable of initially very large hail and a tornado or two. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a good portion of the area in the "Slight Risk" of severe weather with a hatched large hail risk. (--- meaning greater potential of 2" hail or larger---) Due to increasing LI's, storms will begin to cluster as they move into East Texas favoring a risk of heavy rain and damaging winds, and with increasing LLJ a QLCS-based tornado risk may evolve during the overnight hours in East TX into LA.
A cold front will follow the dryline and usher in drier air for Thursday, with temperatures in the 70s and pleasant temperatures. A quick return in moisture will occur Friday afternoon into the overnight, and a few storms may develop along a boundary that could pose a severe risk mainly east of DFW. A quiet weekend is expected, but storm chances will return early next week as the next shortwave approaches and a NW flow aloft begins to settle in.
LOCALLY: Early morning/afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue to lift to the northeast, out of the region. New development is expected by the late afternoon hours, with the severe threat beginning in our counties to the west by 3p. We will continue to reach for the low 70s later this afternoon.
TEXAS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: As expected, the risk of severe weather for a good chunk of North Texas has increased as the mesoscale model data becomes more refined as well as reaching realizations of our current atmospheric conditions.
A potent storm system with very strong wind fields is advancing to the east, and will continue to do so through the weekend, interacting with a very unstable airmass across Texas and the Deep South. As the atmosphere destabilizes, long-track, dangerous supercells evolve where the cap erodes and will subsequently move very quickly to the east to the north-east, capable of producing strong to violent tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds, depending on where you are in the Deep South. Our afternoon/evening of severe weather will be today through the overnight hours for much of Texas. The greatest risk of severe weather will lie in West and Central Texas.
The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has issued an "enhanced risk" level (level 3 of 5) of severe storms from a broad line from Childress to San Antonio, followed by the standard "slight" risk (level 2 of 5) encompassing the rest of the state.
Continue to understand to understand it doesn't matter where you are in these colors. If you live in North or Central Texas, just understand that you have a chance of seeing severe weather this afternoon and evening into the overnight hours. Storms do not follow these guidelines that are used to illustrate where the best combination of thermodynamics and dynamics are.
TIMING: Initial thunderstorm development will take place in Northwest Texas at around 3 to 4PM. These storms will move to the east-northeast with time, and the core threat of supercell thunderstorms will come during the evening to overnight hours, generally between 4PM and 12AM. Our last round of rain/severe thunderstorms will come from the Del Rio Valley, developing at around midnight, making its way into the North-Central Texas area from around 3 to 8 AM as the cold front moves to the east.
THREATS: With the first round of supercell thunderstorms, all modes of severe weather will be possible, including primarily large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Given the dynamics that are in place, while I don't anticipate widespread tornado reports, I do think there is *potential* for one or two intense tornadoes with the initial supercells that develop in Northwest Texas and move to the east.
The threat with the pre-dawn QLCS (Quasi-linear convective system) will come from mainly damaging winds and (very) large hail in some spots. There is even the risk for a couple of embedded, brief tornadoes.
RAIN: Rain amounts should generally stay below an inch for most places in North Texas, so flooding will not be of concern.
Now, that we have covered this evening, let us shift the attention to our folks that may be affected in the Deep South. Please share this if you know anybody that might be in this area.
The SPC maintains a "moderate risk" (level 4 out of 5) of severe weather for much of Central Louisiana, Mississippi, and parts of west and Central Alabama, with an "enhanced risk" (level 3 out of 5) encompassing much of the Deep South at this point.
TIMING: Initial thunderstorm development will take place in the Ark-La-Tex region late morning as unstable air shifts northward in advance of the warm front. The peak threat of supercell thunderstorms for the most affected region will take place from around 12PM to 12AM.
THREATS: All modes of severe weather will be possible, including the threat for very large hail and damaging winds. Based on the magnitude of the atmosphere, several tornadoes are expected, including the potential for a few violent, long track tornadoes.
UNCERTAINTY: WIth any severe weather event, comes with the air of uncertainty that could either make for a worse-case scenario or for storms to not be as intense, which is ultimately what we want. Elevated convection within the warm sector is expected during the morning hours, which could dampen the overall severe potential, or produce enough outflow to introduce a higher-end tornado potential. This type of uncertainty precludes the need to upgrade to a high risk with this forecast at this present time. However, confidence is still high that a macro-scale severe weather event takes place.
WiLl tHiS bE LiKE aPRiL 27tH, 2011?: I really do not like this question at all. 216 tornadoes were confirmed that day, with a third of them being strong to violent. Those are generational events. Meaning, they tend to happen once every 40 years or more. However, bear in mind that if there is only one tornado in your state, and that happens to come down your street, that is YOUR April 27th, 2011.
PREPARE, PREPARE, PREPARE: Today is day where you and your family need to keep ready for severe thunderstorms. Be sure you have multiple ways of receiving warnings. NEVER RELY ON A TORNADO SIREN. First, make sure you have a NOAA Weather Radio. Every home in the Plains and Deep South needs one as they work off of their own network, making them very reliable.
On your phone, make sure you have WEA (Wireless Emergency Alerts) enabled on your phone. To make sure of this go to Settings > Notifications > scroll all the way down to the bottom to ensure that "Emergency Alerts" are enabled.
If you live in the North-Central Texas region, be sure to join our text messaging system by texting @apexstorm to 81010; it is an excellent way of getting severe weather watches and warnings pushed to your phone, as well as daily forecasts and forecast updates.
Find the safest place in your home. It is typically in a small room, on the lowest floor, near the center of your house, away from windows. In that safe place, have helmets for everyone, airhorns (in case you are injured and need to alert first responders on site), and hard-sole shoes (if you must walk over tornado debris).
If you live in a mobile home, you can not stay put during a tornado warning. Identify the nearest location of a shelter or safe place, and know how to get there at a moments notice.
YOU'RE GONNA BE FINE: I am well aware that we are in a time in our society that most people in the South, and nationwide, are suffering from high anxiety from a global pandemic. The last thing we want as trusted forecasters is to add to that anxiety. However, at the same time, we must present the weather situation the way it currently stands. If you are located anywhere in the Deep South, just know that there is no reason to panic about today or tomorrow. Even during a severe weather outbreak, the chances of a tornado hitting your house are low, as tornadoes are tiny compared to counties, or the entire state. Unfortunately, lots of amateur weather weenies are on the social media outlets today using a myriad of scare tactics, which is ridiculous and irresponsible. They do not have any prior knowledge behind the different models and maps, what they mean, or how to interpret it. Yet, people will share them without second guessing. Please stay away from these pages, as nobody needs more anxiety. Only get weather information from trusted sources (like this blog and our social media outlets).
COVID-19: From the National Weather Service offices in Alabama and Mississippi, the Alabama and Mississippi Department of Health:
MISSISSIPPI: This spring, the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency (MEMA), the Mississippi State Department of Health, (MSDH), and the National Weather Service (NWS) are offering the following guidance for how to take shelter from severe weather during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The need to practice social distancing and prevent the spread of COVID-19 brings added complications to taking shelter from severe weather. However, state and federal officials agree that your top priority should be to protect yourself from a potential tornado.
Officials recommend sheltering from tornadoes inside your home when possible. If you don't have a below-ground storm shelter, well-constructed homes and buildings provide life-saving protection from many of Mississippi's tornadoes. Take shelter in a closet, bathroom, interior hallway or other interior room with no windows on the lowest level of the house or building. For mobile home residents, you should abandon the mobile home in favor of a sturdy building during severe weather. This alternative structure should be a part of a severe weather plan that is identified well in advance.
If your family typically takes refuge in a public storm shelter in your community, first check with your community shelter managers to ensure they will still be open and if there are any special considerations to plan for due to COVID-19.
Now is the time to explore the best options to keep you safe from severe weather as well as limit your exposure to the virus. Don't wait until a tornado warning is issued to make a plan.
Wherever you choose to shelter from a tornado: take as many precautions as possible to inhibit the spread of COVID-19 as best as you can, continue social distancing, and frequent handwashing.
The best way to prepare for severe weather during a pandemic is to stay informed of the latest weather forecast from the NWS and local media: as well as the latest recommendations regarding COVID-19 from the Center for Disease Control (CDC), the Mississippi State Department of Health, and local authorities.
ALABAMA: The decision to seek shelter in a community storm shelter is certainly made more difficult by the consideration for COVID-19, and each individual will need to make an educated decision on where and when to shelter from a tornado.
At this time, the Alabama Department of Public Health (ADPH) is recommending that your first priority should be to protect yourself from a potential tornado. If a warning is issued for your area, you are more likely to be affected by the tornado than the virus.
However, the decisions to open any community shelters are done at the local or county level. Before you make a decision to go to a community shelter, you should check with your community shelter managers to ensure they are open, and if there are any local COVID-19 considerations. Certainly, wherever you choose to shelter from a tornado, you should use as many precautions as possible to inhibit the spread of COVID-19 as best as you can. If you rely on public community shelters, now may be the time to explore other options that might keep you safer from severe weather and possibly limit your exposure to COVID-19.
Keep tabs on our feeds @donowx, @LoganShipleyWx, the blog, and join the ApexStorm text message system by texting @apexstorm to 81010. Just hang tight, we will get through this together.
MIDDAY: Morning clouds are continuing to clear the North-Central Texas region as we become more comfortable throughout the afternoon with temperatures approaching the low 70s with a easterly wind. Any chance of showers and storms will remain to the south of San Antonio.
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF TEXAS TOMORROW: Tomorrow's severe potential will mark the beginning of a multi-day outbreak of severe weather that will last until Monday for parts of the Southern US. A potent storm system with very strong wind fields will advance east through this weekend, interacting with a very unstable airmass across the Deep South. As the atmosphere destabilizes, long-track, severe storms will evolve where the cap erodes, and will move east/north-east, capable of producing violent tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds, depending on where you are in the Deep South. Our day of severe weather will be tomorrow afternoon through evening for much of Texas. The greatest threat of severe weather will lie in Central Texas, as I will show below.
The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has issued an "enhanced risk" (level 3 of 5) of severe storms for a fine from Del Rio to Lufkin, with the standard "slight risk" (level 2 of 5) encompassing the rest of the state.
Like I say with any severe threat (this goes for those that are reading this anywhere in the Deep South), please be advised that these maps are only used for guidelines and that these storms do not follow these colors. These risks are used to simply illustrate where the best combination of thermodynamics and dynamics lie.
TIMING: I expect thunderstorm development at around the 1-2PM time frame in Central Texas, and will open the broad window for strong to severe storms in North-Central Texas from around 4PM to 11PM.
THREATS: All modes of severe weather will be possible, including the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Right now, we are looking at a potential MCS (mesoscale convective system) of strong to severe storms capable of producing large hail and gusty winds. However, keep in mind that any storm that becomes discrete will have the potential of producing a strong, long-tracked tornado. The warm sector is sufficiently north with low level shear of over 40kts in many places, combined with 90kts of 8kts shear will make for a very volatile environment for a tornado to thrive in. Also, this is mainly after the sun is set, which would make matters a little more worse because of the low level jet intensifying any shear and upper air forcing already existent. However, there is one caveat. If the storm mode is messy like what the meso models depict, there is a good chance that hail and damaging winds will be a primary threat. Keep in mind that this is entirely conditional and will depend on current observations tomorrow. I am not anticipating a tornado event, but an isolated strong tornado is possible, but not likely at this present time.
RAIN: Rain should be confined to a little less than an inch, so flooding should not be a concern in North-Central Texas.
CALL TO ACTION: I am very cognizant that we are in a time in our society that most people in the DFW Metroplex, and nationwide, are suffering from high anxiety due to the rapidly changing conditions in the midst of a global pandemic. The last thing we want to do as trusted forecasters is to add to that anxiety, but at the same time, we must present the weather situation the way it currently stands right now so you can be prepared. If you are located anywhere in the Deep South (not just Texas), just know that there is no reason to panic about the next couple of days, you just have to ensure that you and your family take the requisite steps to ensure that you are as safe as possible.
First and foremost, you must have a way of receiving warning. NEVER RELY ON AN OUTDOOR SIREN. The baseline is each house being equipped with a NOAA Weather Radio that has fresh batteries, and is properly programmed (start here to get frequency and SAME code information for your area).
On your phone, make sure WEA (Wireless Emergency Alerts) are enabled in your settings, under notifications. Furthermore, if you live in the DFW Metroplex, make sure to text @apexstorm to 81010 so you get notifications for when severe weather impacts the Metroplex.
Know where your safe place is located, and be sure to have helmets and hard sole shoes, airhorns, or whistles for everyone in your house. If you are in a mobile home, know where you are going and how to quickly get there in the event of a tornado.
No need to fear about the weekend. Keep a close eye on my twitter and the ApexStorm Facebook page. We will get through Saturday and Sunday together.
Owner - ApexStorm
Scattered to widespread showers and even a couple t-storms are expected today, with temperatures remaining in the 40s. No severe weather is expected, but it is a good day to stay inside. (as we all should be anyway) Temperatures stay steady tonight. Warm air advection increases tomorrow, and we will rebound into the low to middle 60s. The STJ will allow for impulses of energy to provide scattered showers and a few thunderstorms through the day tomorrow, but nothing severe is expected.
A southwesterly flow regime will continue into Monday, and deep moisture will continue to remain in place. More impulses of energy will come along with the remaining STJ, leading to more scattered thunderstorms mainly during the heating of the day. Monday will be warmer and humid with highs in the middle 70s. A slightly greater amount of instability will be in place, so a strong to marginally severe storm or two with 40-50mph winds and upwards of 1" hail in diameter will be possible.
Strong southwesterly winds will increase high temperatures on Tuesday, with a dryline pushing eastward towards I/35 during the afternoon. Temperatures will soar well into the 80s Tuesday afternoon with partly sunny skies. There will be a low chance of a storm along the dryline, however veered flow on the humid side and dry side of the boundary will limit any type of convergence that attempts to establish. Therefore, the chance of any storms on Tuesday is very low, but not zero. If a storm does manage to develop or a more defined set up occurs, we will have a very unstable and decently sheared environment capable of severe storms. Again, the chance of any development is low but will remain watched.
Wednesday is the more interesting day of the week with a leading trough and surface low combining with a cold front sagging into the Southern Plains with an established dryline in our western counties. A veered flow will be in place ahead of this dryline, and convergence may be better than Tuesday leading to the chance of scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening hours. An unstable and sheared environment will be in place, so there will be a threat of severe weather if storms can develop. There is significant difference among global guidance on whether storm development occurs or not. This will be watched the next few days.
Either way, a cold front will move into North Texas late Wednesday night and thunderstorms will likely develop along the boundary. There will be a risk for strong or severe storms during this timeframe, but the extend of storm coverage and the severity of storms is still rather unknown.
Thursday will be much colder and windy with temperatures likely falling into the 50s during the afternoon. Scattered showers will remain possible through the day, but nothing widespread or severe is expected.
A warming trend will take place next weekend, but dry weather is expected at this time.
RADAR CHECK: Most of the showers and thunderstorms have pushed out of the North-Central Texas region this morning, leaving only a cluster of thunderstorms just south of the Red River. We do note that those storms have triggered a Flash Flood Warning to be posted for a portion of Cooke and Grayson counties until 11:00 AM this morning.
For the coverage area this afternoon, I expect mostly dry conditions with a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the middle 70s. However, I can not rule out the potential for a stray thunderstorm or two. Most of our potential third round of heavy rain and strong to severe storms will come during the overnight hours, however.
SEVERE RISK FOR MOST OF NORTH AND WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT: Current surface analysis reveals a surface low over southwestern Kansas with a quasi-stationary front stretching down to the south across west Texas, extending further to the east across North-Central Texas. The warm sector is characterized by dewpoints in the middle to upper 60s with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 70s in most spots this afternoon. The rich boundary layer in the Big Country combined with daytime heating instability (especially with the sun being out) will cause a risk of severe weather this afternoon and evening for northwest and north-central Texas.
The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has an "enhanced risk" (level 3/5) of severe storms for most of the Big Country and for areas generally north and west of I-35W. The standard "slight risk" (level 2/5) runs through the DFW Metroplex, generally surrounding the Enhanced Risk for about 100 miles apart. Lastly, a "marginal risk" (level 1 of 5) runs through the rest of the North Texas area, extending down towards Central Texas.
TIMING: Most of the development will take place along the dryline in West Texas at around 5-6PM. The any discrete storm will consolidate into an MCS (mesoscale convective system) later overnight. The severe risk in the North Texas region will run from about 9PM-12AM, with the risk of heavy rain running from midnight to the pre-dawn hours.
THREATS: All modes of severe weather will be possible, just like yesterday night. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary risk. However, a couple of tornadoes will be possible, like what we saw in Throckmorton yesterday afternoon. There is still a little bit of uncertainty regarding the extent of the spread of heavy during the early morning hours. One of the mesoscale models keeps most of the activity confined to North Texas, while one of them keeps the rain widespread through North and Central Texas. Nonetheless, please keep in mind that North Texas has the best chance of severe with heavy rain chances, which may lead to localized flooding.
TOMORROW: The threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will continue tomorrow for our northeastern counties as activity develops from a remnant outflow boundary. Associated lift should support the threat for large hail and damaging winds for those zones. Flooding will be a continued issue in already saturated areas.
FRIDAY: Things cool off considerably Friday with a cold front pushing southward late Thursday night into Friday with highs in the 50s and 60s. An upstream shortwave will approach from the south, which will add another chance of showers and thunderstorms which should affect our southernmost counties. Flooding should not be much of concern by that point.
We should get a break from the rain Saturday and for most of Sunday with highs in the mid 50s. We will see mostly sunny skies Saturday followed by cloudiness on Sunday.
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The cold front has stalled to our south and east, and temperatures in DFW have fallen into the 50s. A couple thunderstorms have developed east of DFW along the boundary. A few storms will likely develop in DFW later this evening into the overnight, and a few could be strong with frequent lightning and heavy rain. Coverage will only be 40% or so.
Tomorrow will be a cool day with highs in the 60s. Scattered showers and a few t-storms will be possible through the day, but no severe storms are anticipated. As the warm front lifts northward Sunday night, widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop with near an 80% chance of rain. Some of these could turn strong with hail or some gusty winds, but the severe risk remains very low. Below is the European model for late tomorrow evening/early overnight.
Monday morning will have storms around, but we should see some dry weather around midday before redeveloping thunderstorms are likely during peak heating. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s. No severe weather is expected.
Dry weather is anticipated Monday night with temperatures in the 60s. However, a few showers or sprinkles aren't ruled out.
By Tuesday, the first wave of energy will approach West Texas during the afternoon. Strong to possibly severe storms could develop, and these will be watched as they march eastward. These storms will turn into a squall line, and will make a run at DFW & North Texas late Tuesday night. If it can make the trip, a strong or severe storm with damaging winds and heavy rain will be possible. The level of certainty is very low regarding this timeframe, and we should have a better idea by Monday. The best chance will be in our western counties.
After a few potential morning t-storms on Wednesday, a couple afternoon storms could develop during the afternoon. This will be a timeframe to watch for some severe storms once again, with hail or wind likely being the main threat. Another squall line could develop in West Texas and will make a run at North Texas once again Wednesday evening and night. If it makes it, some strong or severe storms will be possible. These may last into Thursday morning, and this will have a large affect on Thursday afternoon.
Dependent on the speed of the dryline on Thursday and how much destabilization we can have, severe thunderstorms may fire up during the afternoon along the dryline. The best chance will be east of I/35. This potential will be watched the next few days. Stay tuned as we refine the details to this weeks forecast the next few days.
Friday will be drier and cooler with highs in the 60s. A strong cold front may move in late in the day and highs could be in the 50s and 60s on Saturday with a chance of scattered rain showers. Severe weather would be very unlikely during this time due to a chillier pattern in place.
Widespread storms rolled in this morning with some severe in DFW, producing damaging winds and hail around 10-11am this morning. However, all of that has moved out and most have been left with a cloudy and mild afternoon. The exception is our northwestern zones where some storms have redeveloped but are currently below severe limits. An enhanced risk of severe storms is in place in far West Texas, where supercellular development is expected within the next few hours. All modes of severe weather will be possible, and this is actually a key to the forecast tonight. These storms will tend to cluster up and will make a run for North Texas. These should stay just N/W of DFW, where a few isolated strong or severe storms will be possible embedded in the clusters. Hail or wind will be the main threat.
This is all associated with a cold front that is stalled across the area now that will lift northward overnight. It will re-approach the region tomorrow afternoon, and showers & thunderstorms will quickly fire up by afternoon with near a 40-50% coverage. A couple of these may turn strong or maybe severe with 1000-2000 instability and some shear in place. Main risk will be large hail. Severe risk right now overall appears low. Best chances are east of I/35.
Sunday looks like the calmest of the next seven, with only isolated showers and storms expected. Nothing severe or widespread. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s.
Monday will have widespread storms, mainly in the morning hours. Some of these could be strong with hail or gusty winds. Severe threat looks quite low. Scattered storms will likely redevelop in the afternoon. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s once again.
Tuesday will have numerous thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon hours. Ingredients may be in place for some severe storms, but this part of the forecast is uncertain. We should get some refinement on that the next few days. Highs will be in the upper 70s. A very similar forecast is in place on Wednesday, and there may be some severe weather once again. We will see how this first wave evolves the next few days. Highs will be in the upper 70s as well on Wednesday.
Thursday looks to be the main show storm wise and severe weather wise. A dynamic system will aid in the development of afternoon and evening storms, and a rather significant severe weather event may evolve somewhere in the plains in the warm sector, with snow/wintry precip in the cold sector. (central and northern plains) This is six days out and will change. Highs Thursday will be near 80° or so.
We should dry out by Friday with dry weather next weekend.