RAINFALL TOTALS: As of 7AM this morning, here are the rainfall totals over the past 24 hours...
Dallas Love Field 0.51
DFW Airport 0.91
Fort Worth Alliance 1.44
Fort Worth Meacham 1.46
Mineral Wells 0.01
Wichita Falls Municipal: 2.45
So far, showers and thunderstorms are not materializing as of late afternoon, but that could change within an hour or so. A few isolated supercells could develop along a residual outflow boundary, capable of hail and strong straight-line winds.
After midnight, a complex of severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds may impact the region after midnight. Heavy rain is also possible. SPC maintains the standard "slight" risk (level 2/5) of severe storms for much of the metroplex through 7AM tomorrow.
REST OF THE WEEK: An upper trough, combined with deep layer moisture, will keep our weather pattern unsettled through most of the week. Look for more chances of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly in the afternoon to overnight hours. Like tonight, severe storms are possible with wind and hail possible. The sky will be partly to mostly sunny with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Showers will be possible Thursday and Wednesday afternoon, but, they will be fewer in number.
THE WEEKEND: Look for a mostly sunny sky with the chance of an isolated shower and storm or two. Highs will stay close to 90° over the weekend.
NEXT WEEK: We will stick with the classic summer forecast for much of the week; mostly sunny skies, highs in the 93-95° range.
TROPICS: Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a well-defined low pressure system located about 350 miles southeast of Cape Cod, Massachusetts, has continued to get better organized today, and a subtropical depression has formed this afternoon. The system is expected to move to the east/northeast, staying away from the US at this time. The rest of the Atlantic Basin is quiet.
AFRICAN DUST: The SAL (Saharan Air Layer), with origins over the deserts of Africa, is pushing through the Caribbean this morning, and should reach parts of the southern U.S. later this week. This dry, dusty air is transported in high levels of the atmosphere, generally between 5,000 and 20,000 feet, and the main effect is creating very vivid sky scenes at sunrise and sunset due to the scattering of sunlight. The dry air also mitigates any tropical storm formation. There can be a reduction in air quality, but most of the dust is several thousand feet off the ground and is not an issue for most people. And, this is NOT unusual in summer.
ON THIS DAY IN 2007: The first officially documented F5 tornado in Canada struck the town of Elie, Manitoba population 500 people. Video of the storm showed a heavy van being whirled through the air. The storm also tossed an almost entire house several hundred yards through the air before it disintegrated. The tornado traveled across the landscape for about 35 minutes covering 3.4 miles and leaving a damage path 984 feet wide. Wind speeds in the tornado were later estimated at 260-316 mph. Fortunately, no fatalities or serious injuries were reported.
After weeks of dry, hot, summer weather, much of DFW saw a return to rain on Friday. Some isolated areas got upwards of 5 inches overnight, with most areas getting at least an inch of rain. While we returned to clear skies for the weekend we can expect this new rain trend to continue for the next week. The pattern has shifted from our dry spell and, due to our NW flow, more shortwaves will come this week with rain totals that could exceed 5 inches for parts of North Texas.
A low pressure system will move down the Texas Panhandle on Monday and produce a shortwave that will move southwest into DFW producing a MCS which could dump a major amount of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday for North Texas. There are varying model solutions for those two days but it is likely that storms will come in late Tuesday and persist overnight through Wednesday. The European model is extremely aggressive and shows bands capable of producing over 10 inches of rain for parts of Texas and it is unlikely that a solution like that unfolds, but could develop if all the right conditions are in place. I’m leaning towards only 2-3 inches for DFW but it’s important to monitor what will happen as the low pressure system moves over Texas and as the shortwave develops. In addition, temperatures will be, on average, 5-10 degrees cooler than the weeks beforehand, with Tuesday potentially struggling to get past 85 degrees. While this will be accompanied by humid weather, potentially raising the heat index, it’ll hopefully be a nice change for us.
LATE WEEK RAIN:
Rain is possible for the rest of the week as well with multiple chances for scattered thunderstorms through next weekend. The shortwave coming through early next week is a side effect of the larger trough that will position itself over Texas for the next week, creating favorable conditions with an active southern jet. While it is currently forecasted for Central and Southern Texas to get more rain than North Texas through the end of the week, it’s extremely possible that there is enough rain to push DFW over the average rainfall for the month—a stark contrast from how dry and hot the month started. Temperatures will also stay within the mid to high 80s in the day and 70s overnight, feeling more like August in Hawaii than June in Texas. It’ll be a refreshing change of pace for sure!
Stay dry, stay cool, and stay weather aware!
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT: Moisture levels will begin to slowly increase today through next week as a northwest flow aloft builds across the South-Central US which will open the door for moisture, resulting in more chances of scattered showers and storms, MCS's, and more clouds.
A complex of thunderstorms from Oklahoma and West Texas will gradually weaken and move into portions of North Texas after midnight. Not everyone will see rain, but the greatest chances lie for those closest to the Red River. Otherwise, we project a high in the 91-94 degree range this afternoon with the chance of isolated, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
Another complex of showers and storms will emerge from South Oklahoma and move south overnight on Saturday, arriving to most of the metroplex by daybreak Sunday. Each afternoon will feature highs in the low 90s with a mix of sun and clouds and fair nights. An afternoon shower or two can not be ruled out, but, odds of any one spot getting wet are only 10 percent during the afternoons.
NEXT WEEK: Moisture levels continue to be above normal, and we will continue to insert daily chances of "isolated, mostly afternoon and evening showers and storms". Afternoon temperatures each day will be in the low 90s due to cloud cover and showers. Rain distribution will not be even, but many communities have a chance of seeing 1 to 1 1/2 inches during the week.
TROPICS: The Atlantic Basin remains very quiet, and tropical storm formation is not expected through next week. The SAL (Saharan Air Layer) could reach the Southeastern US by next week, setting the stage for vivid sunrises and sunsets, especially along the coast.
ON THIS DAY IN 1972: Hurricane Agnes deluged Pennsylvania and New York with torrential rains resulting in the most costly flood in U.S. history. In the Middle Susquehanna Valley of Pennsylvania, 24 hour rainfall amounts were generally 8 to 12 inches, with up to 19 inches in Schuylkill County. At Wilkes-Barre, the dike was breached, destroying much of the town. Flooding resulted in 117 deaths and $3.1 billion in damage.
Look for the next Texas Weather Blog here tomorrow from Colin Welty... Have a great weekend!
Owner - ApexStorm
RADAR CHECK: We do have a few showers across South Texas this afternoon, but they are few and far between, as forecast. Most of the state is dry with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the 90s.
Showers will gradually diminish after sunset, and tonight will be mostly fair with lows in the mid 70s.
A weakening MCS will spit out of Oklahoma through the overnight hours, and will eventually make it into at least the Northwest Texas region during the morning. We will introduce the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms through the morning and afternoon before sunset. Some of the more isolated storms may become strong to borderline severe during the peak of the daytime heating process, so the SPC has issued a "marginal" risk (level 1/5) of severe storms for the western parts of the region.
Not everyone will see rain, but, some downpours are possible due to high precipitable water values. Everyone else will be partly sunny through out the day with highs in the low 90s.
THE WEEKEND: Another MCS will develop along the Red River through the late morning, and move southeast through the metroplex as it weakens. Through its weakening trend, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible during a small window from 11-5PM. The morning will feature partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs in the afternoon will stick to the low 90s. Afternoon showers remain more isolated on Sunday, and highs should continue to be around the low to mid 90s.
NEXT WEEK: With the projected northwest flow in the upper pattern, the pattern will remain unsettled with daily chances of "scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and storms". If you have lived in North Texas long enough, you should know that there is really no way to predict when or where these storms initiate and linger due to the random, scattered nature of the storms; you just have to make sure to keep an eye on the radar if you are slated to participate in any socially-distant outdoor activities.
TROPICS: All is quiet in the Atlantic Basin, and tropical storm formation is not expected through the weekend.
ON THIS DAY IN 1989: Unseasonably hot weather prevailed in the southwestern U.S. In Arizona, afternoon highs of 103 degrees at Winslow, 113 degrees at Tucson, and 115 degrees at Phoenix were records for the date.
Look for the next Texas Weather Blog before noon tomorrow... Enjoy the evening!
Owner - ApexStorm
Here are some late afternoon temperatures across the DFW Metroplex...
FW AIRPORT 93
DALLAS LOVE 94
FTW MEACHAM 92
GRAND PRAIRIE 91
The average high for June 17 is 92°, so a number of communities around the metroplex are around or just above our seasonal average for this time of the year. The sky is mostly sunny, and storms to the east are few and far between.
TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: The weather will not change much tomorrow. Look for mostly sunny skies with a few widely isolated showers and storms, mainly for our eastern counties. The high will be in the low to mid 90s. Then, on Friday, a mesoscale convective system (MCS) could develop in Oklahoma, and make it to parts of the metroplex as it gradually weakens through the evening and overnight hours. Saturday will feature much of the same boring dry weather. Then, on Sunday, a mid June cold front makes its way to the area, which will subsequently raise our daily chances of scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms through at least the beginning of next week. There is a chance that a couple of storms on Sunday could be strong to severe during the peak of daytime heating. Temperatures will stay in the mid 90s with increased humidity.
NEXT WEEK: Global models continue to hint the idea of increased coverage of scattered showers and thunderstorms each day as the air becomes more unstable, and the humidity continues to rise. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with a mix of sun and clouds each day.
TROPICS: Dry, dusty air from the African deserts will move across the Atlantic in the coming days, eventually reaching the Southeast US by next week. This can set the stage for very vivid sun rises and sunsets, and it also means that no tropical storm formation is expected for the foreseeable future. The peak months of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is usually in August and September. The next named storm will be "Dolly".
ON THIS DAY IN 1882: A tornado traveled more than 200 miles across the state of Iowa killing 130 persons. The tornado traveled at nearly 60 mph and touched down about 90 miles west of Grinnell, struck the town and college around sunset, killing 60, and caused more than half a million dollars damage.
RADAR CHECK: We have isolated showers and thunderstorms about to the east of the metroplex as humidity levels continue to increase over time. The sky is mostly sunny, and temperatures are around the low 90s across North Texas. The average high for DFW Airport for June 16 is 92°.
Those thunderstorms should dissipate during the overnight hours, and tonight will be mostly fair with lows in the low 70s. Some of the cooler spots will visit the upper 60s again.
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY: Look for partly cloudy days and fair nights. A shower or storm could pop up, but they will remain few and far between. Most places will remain dry. Highs will be in the mid 90s for the rest of the workweek. Humidity levels will continue to rise.
THE WEEKEND: We expect afternoon highs in the 92-97° range over the weekend with a good supply of sunshine. On Father's Day, we will mention the chance of scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and storms. No telling where the storms form and who gets rain. Just know that there is a 1 in 3 chance of getting wet on Sunday.
NEXT WEEK: During the beginning of the week, the pattern begins to shift, allowing deeper moisture to make it into the state, increasing the chances of isolated showers and storms for the beginning of the week. Highs will be in the mid 90s, lows in the mid 70s with a mix of sun and clouds each day.
TROPICS: A non-tropical low-pressure area located about 150 miles south-southeast of the North Carolina-South Carolina border continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of southeastern and eastern North Carolina, including the Outer Banks, and adjacent Atlantic waters. The low has moved little today, but a slow northward motion is forecast to begin by this evening. Environmental conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for significant development through tonight when the low should move inland over eastern North Carolina. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could occur over portions of northeastern South Carolina and southeastern and eastern North Carolina through tomorrow. The rest of the Atlantic Basin is quiet.
ON THIS DAY IN 2014: a supercell thunderstorm would produce 5 tornadoes, one rated EF-0 and four rated EF-4, across northeastern Nebraska. The town of Pilger was hardest hit when it took a direct strike from one of the EF-4 tornadoes. The third EF-4 tornado, also known as “Pilger East” was likely the strongest tornado of the outbreak, but fortunately remained in rural areas. The most remarkable thing about this outbreak was the “twins”. Tornadoes 2 and 3 (known as Pilger and Pilger East respectively) became two photogenic twins, at times moving around each other, and crossing paths. After tornado 3 dissipated, tornado 4 (Wakefield) and tornado 2 were twins for a short period of time.
Look for the next blog update at around the same time tomorrow... Have a great night!
Owner - ApexStorm
Following our cold front earlier this week, temperatures and humidity have been tolerable for North Texas. However, the next few days the heat and humidity will crank back up a bit.
Your Sunday will feature a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the middle 90s, with increasing moisture. However, dry weather is anticipated.
As we head into next week, it will start to feel pretty sticky again with highs in the mid to upper 90s and lows in the low to middle 70s. An overall calm week is expected, however a couple seabreeze showers and storms aren't ruled out especially on Tuesday & Wednesday. Coverage will be low and favor areas to the south and east of DFW. Each day will likely feature mostly to partly sunny skies.
By next weekend, a pattern shift is expected. Our flow aloft will become dominantly NW flow. This will favor a couple shortwaves riding along the jet bring a chance of thunderstorms starting Saturday & Sunday and beyond. Given a greater S jet, some 500mb flow could be present allowing for at least a chance of strong storms. However, it is too far out for much detail or certainly. The most important think is that rain chances are expected to return, given how we have had little to no rain so far this month. The heat could also come to an end for a period of time, with highs back down into the 80s and low 90s expected.
Have a great evening!
VERY COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON: A dry continental air mass continues to affect much of the state today, and we continue to enjoy sunshine in full force with lower humidity. Temperatures are around seasonal averages, mostly in the low 90s. Tonight will be clear and pleasant with lows in 60-66 degree range by daybreak.
TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Not much change in the overall weather pattern, as very dry air remains in place. Sunny, warm days with fair and pleasant nights. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s, with lows mostly in the mid 60s. Cooler spots will enter the 50s chat each morning.
NEXT WEEK: How many times must I say it, but the June weather pattern continues. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s for the foreseeable future as we see a slow rise in humidity levels. Weather will continue to stay dry with only an occasional isolated shower.
TROPICS: A disorganized complex of showers located 200 miles east of the Windward Islands is associated with a tropical wave. Significant development is not expected due to the unfavorable environment. The rest of the Atlantic Basin remains quiet.
ON THIS DAY IN 1915: The twister that hit near Mullinville, KS was a mile wide multi-vortex tornado that swept away an entire farm and threw a trio of mules a distance of two miles. However, the storm moved so slowly that people were able to get out of its way and there wasn't a single death or even an injury.
DRY AIR IN NORTH TEXAS: As a result of a rare June cold front, dewpoints are lower than in recent days, followed by a fresh northwesterly breeze. The radar continues to be dry for this evening and tonight, and not many clouds are around, either.
We will have another cool night as dry air hangs around through much of the state.
TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Dry air equals sunny days, cooler nights, and lower humidity tomorrow through Sunday. Highs will be in the low 90s, lows well into the 60s. Cooler spots may see lows in the 50s once again tomorrow. Very refreshing for this time of the year in North Texas. It will be a good break from high humidity and random pop-up storms.
NEXT WEEK: The quiet weather continues. Highs will be in the 95-98 degree range. While humidity levels will slowly rise, widespread rain activity is not expected. We will just mention a couple of isolated showers over the course of the week.
TROPICS: A non-tropical low pressure is located over the central Atlantic Ocean, several hundred miles to the east of the Bermuda. Development of a tropical cyclone is not expected due to unfavorable environmental conditions. The low is forecast to dissipate tomorrow when it slowly moves to the west. The rest of the Atlantic Basin is quiet.
ON THIS DAY IN 1938: Clyde, TX suffered the effects of what was likely an F5 tornado. Several homes completely vanished. One family tried to escape the tornado by car, and inadvertently drove right into it when the twister made a sudden unexpected turn. Four of the six occupants of the car were killed. The two survivors were found half a mile away from the rest of the bodies.
Look for the next Texas Weather Blog here by 4:00 PM tomorrow...
Owner/Founder - ApexStorm
HOT TUESDAY: It was a very hot June day here in the metroplex and much of North-Texas. Here are some of the temperature readings at around 3PM...
DFW AIRPORT 96
DALLAS LOVE 99
FTW MEACHAM 93
GRAND PRAIRIE 99
In wake of a cold front, drier air and cooler conditions can be expected for the next few days. Overnight lows will be in the low 60s. Some of the cooler spots will see lows in the 50s. Some showers are possible in East Texas and the Brazos Valley. No severe storms, but the storms could produce heavy rainfall, and small hail.
TOMORROW: After a rather rare June cold front, tomorrow will be a different kind of day. This morning, and early afternoon, we experienced dewpoints in the 70-75 degree range. Tomorrow, they will drop into the low 40s as much drier air takes over. We will be noticeably cooler with highs mostly in the upper 80s with a breezy northwesterly wind. The more south you go, the more of a chance you have of seeing low 90s.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: We will continue to enjoy lower humidity towards the end of the week with sunny days. Dry weather will continue through the weekend with sunny, warm days and pleasant nights. Cooler spots will drop to the 50s each morning, with low 60s generally across the board.
NEXT WEEK: The weather pattern continues to look very quiet. Moisture levels slowly rise, and thus, a few showers could show up to the south over the latter half of the week, but no sign of any widespread rain for a very long time.
TROPICS: A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the central Atlantic Ocean, a few hundred miles east of the Bermuda. Development of this system is highly unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions. The low is expected to dissipate in a few days. The rest of the Atlantic Basin is quiet.
ON THIS DAY IN 1953: An F4 tornado hit Worcester, MA causing 94 fatalities. The tornado touched down in Petersham, traveled through Worcester, and on to Southborough. Debris was carried eastward and fell in the Boston area. About 4000 houses and buildings were destroyed, totaling more than $52 million in damages.
Look for the next blog update around the same time tomorrow... Have a great night!
Owner - ApexStorm
RADAR CHECK: While all of the metro remains dry this evening, a couple of isolated thunderstorms continue to rotate through extreme Northeastern Texas this evening, on the west side of the circulation of Tropical Depression Cristobal, which is now over Southern Arkansas.
A very moist airmass will continue to stay in place tomorrow as a "death ridge" continues to be in place over the region. We will warm to the upper 90s, and some places will see their first 100 degree day of the year. The average first 100 degree day in North Texas falls on the first of July. If we don't hit it tomorrow, it will be awfully close, for sure.
Then, a rare June cold front will push into the region tomorrow afternoon, which will help to usher in drier air and breezier winds. The timing of the cold front will determine whether some spots see 100 degrees or not. One way or another, the drier weather combined with breezy conditions will spark fire concerns tomorrow afternoon and evening.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: A very dry airmass in wake of a cold front will slightly cool us off by a few degrees. Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday will be very pleasant days for June. Expect a good supply of sunshine, lower humidity, and cooler nights. Highs will be in the low 90s, but lows will be well down in the 60s, and cooler spots will hit the upper 50s.
Not much change for the weekend as dry air continues to hang in here. The sky will be mostly sunny Saturday and Sunday with highs in the mid 90s and lows in the low 70s.
NEXT WEEK: Moist air begins to make a return early next week. As such, we will bring back the chance of a random, isolated shower or storm on Monday, and keep it in the forecast on a daily basis through the end of the week. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s on most days.
TROPICS: Tropical Depression Cristobal is over Arkansas and will continue to weaken. The rest of the Atlantic Basin is quiet, and tropical storm formation is not expected this week.
ON THIS DAY IN 2001: Tropical Storm Allison hits Houston for the second time in three days. Louisiana and Southern Texas were inundated with rain, as Baton Rouge received over 18 inches over a couple of days. Some portions of Texas accumulated 36 inches by June 11.
The past week has shown North Texas plenty of sunshine and heat, with more of that to come in the future. Aside from the few scattered storms last week, it was a mostly dry, hot week with days in the 80s and 90s, and looking forward, summer heat is the new normal for North Texas. What can we expect for the upcoming week?
Tropical Storm Cristobal, who is currently residing in the Gulf of Mexico, will be making landfall to our east in Louisiana and making its way up through the United States on Sunday through Tuesday. There is a fairly decent chance that the outer remnants of Cristobal make its way to DFW as a few rain bands rotate around our area as the low pressure system disperses. It’s not a given, as tropical storm paths are still difficult to predict even this close out, but the possibility still exists. Regardless, as a result of Cristobal, a spike in temperature will happen on Tuesday with our first possibility of triple digits this year. Compressional heating as a result of a dry air on the backside of the tropical storm, in a process called “subsidence”, will result in record heat for lots of Texas, and it’s possible we could also set records, depending on the speed of the incoming cold front as well. The cold front will only lower temperatures a little bit but it will drop dew points, making the air less muggy.
Many of you have heard talk of the so-called “death ridge” that has placed itself over the United States. What does this mean? In its most basic form, troughs are associated with low pressure systems and ridges are associated with high pressure systems. High pressure systems, especially in the summer, can lead to rising temperatures, whereas low pressure systems, commonly associated with cold fronts, cool the air, due to the interaction of the upper and lower dynamics of the atmosphere. The death ridge brings calm winds and strong cap inversions that make all moisture in the area unable to form as rain clouds, creating hotter, more intolerable days. Thankfully, if we have a death ridge, it is quite mild, as temperatures likely won’t break triple digits aside from after the tropical storm. There will also be a number of chances for low pressure systems to come in and potentially give us relief later on the week, though that is less likely at this point in time. For the foreseeable future, DFW will be subject to dry, 90 degree days with plenty of sunshine, for everyone to enjoy whatever pool they can socially distance themselves at.
Stay cool, stay hydrated, and stay weather aware!
ANOTHER QUIET MORNING: After a round of strong to severe storms overnight for some of our northwestern counties, we are dry once again this morning.
The forecast will not change much for the foreseeable future; each day will feature mostly sunny skies with increasing humidity. Highs will today will be in the upper 90s. Heat Indices will be in the danger zone once again today, exceeding the triple digits.
THE WEEKEND: Not much change. Much of the same weather continues for the weekend with relatively dry weather tomorrow and Sunday with a great supply of sunshine and afternoon highs around the upper 90s. Showers will be pretty unlikely for the weekend.
NEXT WEEK: Very humid air will cover the region for the beginning of next week, as Cristobal passes to the east, continuing to leave us in a very dry, humid airmass. We might experience a few isolated showers and storms on Monday, but, we will quickly warm on Tuesday. There is high confidence that Tuesday might be DFW's first official 100 degree day of the year. The average first 100 degree day for DFW is usually July 1, so we are way ahead of schedule. Heat indices will likely reach the danger zone once again on Tuesday, so a Heat Advisory will likely be needed to address this concern. The rest of the week will feature more dry weather with highs in the mid 90s.
CRISTOBAL: The system is still inland this morning over the Yucatan of Mexico. It is a tropical depression with sustained winds of 35 mph. It will begin its journey northward into the Gulf of Mexico tonight, and should regain tropical storm status. No real change has been made to the NHC forecast track; landfall will take place Sunday night along the Louisiana coast as a tropical storm.
Hurricane strength is unlikely, as the system will soon encounter dry air and moderate shear. Tropical storm watches will be required for portions of the Gulf later today.
ON THIS DAY IN 1976: When water began leaking from Idaho's new Teton Dam, there seemed to be no cause for alarm. On this date, warnings were frantic that the dam was about to break. As workers tried to shore up the crumbling dam, it crumbled shortly after 11 AM, sending 180 billion gallons of water pouring through Teton Canyon. 11 people lost their lives, but the toll would have been much higher if the dam had failed at night and residents had been asleep.
Look for the next blog update tomorrow by Logan Shipley... enjoy the day!
OCEAN OF HUMIDITY: A hot, muggy airmass will hang over North Texas for the foreseeable future, meaning each day, we will forecast partly to mostly sunny skies, which a chance of a random isolated shower or storm. There isn't a way of knowing exactly who will get the storm, just remember to check the radar from time to time. The radar will be very quiet this afternoon, but a weakening complex of severe thunderstorms will move southeast overnight, and rain is possible in some areas by 1PM. Highs will be in the mid 90s, seasonably warm for the beginning of June.
THE WEEKEND: No real chance for the weekend. We remain dry, humid, and hot with mostly sunny skies on both days. Highs will continue to be in the middle to upper 90s.
NEXT WEEK: We will introduce a chance of scattered showers and storms on Monday as Cristobal moves northward through Louisiana and Arkansas, but the general pattern will not change much. Mostly sunny, hot, humid days with mostly dry conditions. Highs will remain mostly in the middle to upper 90s through the week. There is some hint that one of those days could be the first 100 degree day of the year, but we will believe when we see it.
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL: This morning, the system continues to weaken, as winds are down to 40 mph. The center of Cristobal was located over Southern Mexico, and is nearly stationary... A movement toward the east then northeast is expected later today, and a subsequent northward motion should occur through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center will move over the landmass of eastern Mexico today and tonight. The center is then forecast to move back over the Gulf tomorrow or tomorrow night, then the Central Gulf on Saturday.
No significant change has been made to the NHC forecast track. The tropical storm is expected to move into the Louisiana coast Sunday night with winds of 60-65 mph.
The circulation center will move through Louisiana and Arkansas Monday and Monday night, whilst weakening.
ON THIS DAY IN 1877: A tornado of F4 intensity touched down just to the west of Mt. Carmel, Illinois and moved northeast, devastating the town. 20 businesses and 100 homes were severely damaged or destroyed. 16 people and as many as 30 were killed, with 100 injured.
Look for the next blog post tomorrow at around the same time... Enjoy the day!
Owner/Founder - ApexStorm
HOT, HUMID DAYS: The radar is quiet across North Texas this morning, but we expect the return of isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, accordingly. Most of the showers will come from around 12:00 to 9:00 PM, and the chance of any one spot getting wet is about one in three. The high will be in the low to mid 90s.
There will not be much change tomorrow and Friday. Warm, humid days with "isolated, mostly afternoon and evening showers and storms". There is no way of exactly knowing when and where the storms appear due to the random nature. You just have to ensure to keep an eye on the radar if you have outdoor activity planned. Highs will remain in the 92-95 degree range.
THE WEEKEND: Not much change; We will continue to roll with the persistent early summer forecast of "mix of sun and clouds with daily chances of isolated, mostly afternoon and evening showers and storms". Highs will be in the middle to upper 90s.
NEXT WEEK: We expect an increase in the amount of showers and storms on Monday and Tuesday as a response of the tropical moisture being pulled to the north due to Tropical Storm Cristobal. The highest coverage will most likely come on Monday as Cristobal passes to the west of the state, on its journey northward. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s, lows in the mid 70s.
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL: The system in the far southwestern Gulf of Mexico is packing sustained winds of 60 mph this morning. According to the forecast track, the center will cross the southern Bay of Campeche coast later today and move inland over eastern Mexico tonight and tomorrow. The center is then forecast to move back over the Bay of Campeche tomorrow night and Friday.
Slight increase in strength is possible until the center crosses the coast, which, at that point, will weaken once again. Restrengthening is expected after Cristobal moves back over water tomorrow night and Friday.
The latest NHC track places Cristobal on the Louisiana coast Sunday night as a high-end tropical storm. The main impact will come from heavy rain, flooding, and waterspouts/tornadoes.
ON THIS DAY IN 1993: (This is something North Texans should be familiar with) Early morning severe thunderstorms produced huge hail across northern Oklahoma. Hail, up to the size of six inches in Enid, went through roofs, damaged three fighter jets at Vance Air Force Base, and did $500,000 in damage at a car dealership. Wind gusts reached 70 MPH at the base as well. Hail damage to crops was estimated at $70 million.
Look for the next blog update at around the same time tomorrow... Enjoy the day!
Owner/Founder - ApexStorm
WARM JUNE WEATHER: We are forecasting a high in the upper 80s to low 90s for most North Texas communities today. The sky will be partly cloudy, and the best chance of isolated showers and storms this afternoon will lie over the northeast corner of the region. The average high for Dallas/Fort-Worth on June second is 88.
The ridge will continue to build through the rest of the week, and we will bring rising temperatures to the forecast again. We will remain mostly dry with a mix of sun and clouds each day. We will gradually get hotter with afternoon highs ranging from the low to mid 90s with overnight lows generally in the middle 70s.
THE WEEKEND: Not much change. Typical weather for early June should continue with warm, humid conditions. There could be a slight uptick in moisture levels with a slight chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday, depending on the track of the tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. Mix of sun and clouds with highs in the 90s.
NEXT WEEK: Again, our weather will be largely dependent on the tropical situation. If the system moves into Louisiana, or Southeast Texas (as it appears now) and stays to the east, the week will be warm with a mix of sun and clouds daily with highs in the 90s. Otherwise, expect an uptick of moisture with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms for at least the beginning of the week.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE: The third tropical depression this year developed late yesterday over the Bay of Campeche in the far Southwest Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to become Tropical Storm Cristobal today, and it will move very little, if, at all, over the next 48 hours. The system will then move northward this weekend, and the NHC forecasts the center to be over the Gulf of Mexico by Saturday night.
From there, higher landfall probabilities lie over the upper Texas and western Louisiana coast Sunday night or Monday, as a possible hurricane. Of course, there is no skill in a specific forecast in terms of specific landfall point or intensity of the system. Typically, the biggest threat from early season tropical system come from heavy rain and flooding.
ON THIS DAY IN 1998: A tornado touched down in Frostburg, Maryland on June 2, 1998 at 9:45 PM. This was a part of a killer tornado outbreak of tornadoes that moved southeast from Pennsylvania. The storm first entered Garrett county, impacting the town of Finzel. From there, it moved up and over Big Savage Mountain in Allegany county and ripped through the northern portion of Frostburg, where it reached peak intensity as it crossed the ridge. Winds were estimated between 210 and 250 mph (which was considered F4 criteria on the Fujita Tornado Damage Scale). This was the first tornado to be officially rated an "F4" in the State of Maryland.
Look for the next blog update by noon tomorrow. Enjoy the day!
Owner/Founder - ApexStorm
AVERAGE AFTERNOON: On a Monday afternoon in June, temperatures are mostly where they should be for this time of the year. Here are some readings at around 3PM...
Some active scattered thunderstorms are ongoing in west-central Texas, and should continue to stay to the south of the metroplex, before dissipating tonight. Tonight will be mostly fair for much of the region.
We will mention the risk of isolated showers tomorrow afternoon, but most of the region should stay dry with a partly sunny sky. Temperatures will reach the upper 80s once again.
REST OF THE WEEK: Not much change. As the ridge becomes more established, temperatures will continue to increase with time. There still exists the chance of an isolated shower or storm during the afternoon and evening hours, mostly between 12:00 and 9:00 PM. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with a mix of sun and clouds daily, turning mostly sunny on Wednesday and Friday.
THE WEEKEND: We will continue to roll with a persistent forecast; mostly sunny days, highs in the mid to upper 90s with the chance of a random pop-up storm during the peak of daytime heating. Very typical summertime weather for North Texas.
NEXT WEEK: Our weather for next week will be largely dependent on now Tropical Depression Three, located over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Global ensemble models have entertained the idea of a landfall in or around the Texas coast, with possible travel further to the north. If this happens, of course, that would mean an uptick of the coverage of showers and thunderstorms during the beginning of the week. However, there is also the chance this stays well to the east, which will leave us with a dry forecast, as convection from a tropical storm usually takes places to the north and east of the circulation center. For now, we will include a small chance of rain everyday for the beginning of next week with highs in the mid 80s.
2020 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON: The first day of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season is today, which will run until November 30th. Long-term averages for the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12, 6, and 3, respectively.
The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season names are Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, and Wilfred.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE: At 4PM today, the NHC posted their first advisory for Tropical Depression Three. Satellite imagery and radar observations from Mexico indicate that the are of disturbed weather centered near the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is gradually becoming better organized. This depression will move west-northwestward over the Bay of Campeche, and a tropical storm is likely to form tonight or Tuesday. The system is then forecast to drift westward or west-southwestward over the southern Bay of Campeche through the middle of the week. Persons in and along the coast of the Bay of Campeche should monitor the progress of this disturbance, as tropical storm warnings have already been issued for a portion of this area.
Once this becomes a tropical storm, the name will be "Cristobal", and long-range ensemble data indicates the highest impact potential to be over the Texas or Louisiana coast in about a week. Until this system gets more organized and we get better analysis from hurricane hunter aircraft, there is no way of knowing exactly the final landfall mark, or the peak intensity.
Look for the next blog update on here by noon tomorrow...
Owner/Founder - ApexStorm
As you might recall, last week I called for some prolonged heavy rain events and a wet pattern to last us into June. And, as you are probably well aware, it has been very dry and warm the past 3 days in DFW. So, in summary, I was wrong. However, so too were the models, as the ULL came through way faster and hammered Central Texas with severe weather and allowed the ridging to form, giving us a plethora of hot and mostly cloudless days to work with for the end of May. So, what does this mean for North Texas?
EARLY NEXT WEEK:
A fairly uneventful start to the week will bring us plenty of sunshine for Sunday and Monday. While many places in Texas, especially the hill country, have considerable chances for rain and thunderstorms, we will stay dry in DFW. Temperatures could wander into the low 90s, but I expect them to follow our 10-Day Forecast pretty closely. The upper level ridge forming will make conditions extremely unfavorable for any sort of break in the pattern. However, there is a chance that an inverse trough (troughs usually go from North to South) brings moisture from the gulf by midweek, so there is a possibility for some low chances for rain on Tuesday and Wednesday that become increasingly higher the more southeast you go. However, since this ridge is quite strong (a classic omega blocking pattern taking shape), any rain will be minimal at best as it would have to traverse through adverse conditions to reach us.
END OF WEEK:
The inactive pattern will continue as we see average to slightly above temperatures for our transition into summer. In addition, we will be lucky to see very low, if any, chances for rain through Saturday. While this is lame for the meteorologists of the world, it’s very exciting for the general public. Since we have been dealing with a very complex and active pattern for most of May, this break in weather should allow for plenty of outdoor activities like running, biking, and other socially distant ways to enjoy the outdoors. Heat may become an issue by the end of the week, but we will more than likely stay within double digit temperatures for the foreseeable future.
While the “boring” pattern persists through May and into early June, by next weekend all could possibly change. Many models are showing the possibility of Texas’s first tropical storm threat and, while it is entirely too far out to know if it will happen, it provides some uncertainty with what kind of weather DFW could be experiencing. An Upper Level Low is expected to form over Mexico and potentially spin off northward into the Gulf of Mexico. Early forecasting seems to indicate that shear will be relatively high over the Gulf, limiting the favorability for tropical development, but the ULL could turn into something tropical despite this. However, the block over the U.S. is likely going to still exist by next weekend, with the persistent ridge also making conditions unfavorable. It’s likely that DFW won’t be affected, but it could become a big rain producer for much of Coastal Texas and, if the path of the low moves due North, could provide some storms for us as well, if timing goes well enough for it. It’s extremely early and extremely volatile to forecast, as there are so many different variables that play into these results, so I will refrain from making any comments on what I think will happen. That being said, it’s important to stay weather aware and keep up to date with what’s happening. A good way to do this is to read Donovan’s daily weather blogs, in order to see what’s happening in the immediate future.
Stay safe, stay hydrated, and stay weather aware!
RADAR CHECK: Strong to severe storms have developed in the Big Country this afternoon and are continuing to move to the southeast this evening. Some of these storms are severe with 60 mph winds and up to half-dollar sized hail, with flooding being a possibility with those that experience torrential downpours. The SPC maintains a low-end "marginal risk" of severe thunderstorms for much of the southern half of the North Texas region through the evening hours. The heavier storms could produce small hail and gusty winds.
Temperatures remain mostly on average with readings mostly in the mid to upper 80s. The average high for Dallas/Fort-Worth on May 27 is 84.
The upper low will continue to move slowly eastward, and we expect mostly dry conditions tomorrow, followed by completely dry weather by Friday. An isolated storm or two is possible on Thursday. We expect highs in the mid 80s tomorrow and Friday, with a good supply of sunshine.
THE WEEKEND: Unusually dry air drops into the state over the weekend. Look for sunny days, fair nights, with a tad lower humidity levels. We will continue with highs around 85-87 Saturday and Sunday... many places will see lows in the low 60s Saturday morning. Very average to the end of May here in North Texas.
NEXT WEEK: The weather looks very dry next week with a warming trend. Afternoon highs will reach the low to mid 90s by the end of the week. Showers and storms will be very limited in number, if any.
TROPICS: Tropical Storm Bertha formed quickly early this morning, just off the South Carolina coast. It is now inland, moving northward producing heavy rain as a tropical depression. The rest of the Atlantic Basin is quiet. The official start of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season is June 1.
Look for the next weather discussion and blog update by noon tomorrow.
Owner - ApexStorm
GRADUAL CLEARING: An upper low in East Texas will slowly drift away from us in coming days, gradually diminishing the chances of showers and storms for the next couple of days. This evening, we have a mix of sun and clouds in many locations, and temperatures are only in the low to mid 70s across much of the region. The average high for Dallas/Fort-Worth on May 26 is 86 degrees. Any isolated showers we see could linger on into the overnight hours.
We will continue to forecast periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours through Friday as the upper low continues to move out of here. The rain will not be continuous or widespread, and we will, of course, see periods of sunshine throughout. The overall pattern remains unsettled, and it is likely that the spots that do get wet will pick up an additional 0.15 inches of rain.
If sufficient instability can develop, we have the potential for a few severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening. The SPC has a low end "marginal risk" (level 1/5) of severe storms defined for the southern end of the North Texas region, with a higher severe risk further south toward Austin and San Antonio.
Where stronger storms develop, hail and strong wind gusts will be possible.
THE WEEKEND: A very dry airmass for the end of May drops in here Friday, keeping us dry for a long time. The days will be mostly sunny with a tad lower humidity values, and after morning lows in the mid 60s, highs will be in the mid 80s, about average for late May.
NEXT WEEK: Dry weather continues for most of the week with slowly increasing heat and humidity levels. We will likely reach the lower 90s by Wednesday.
TROPICS: Showers and storms located over the northwestern Bahamas, extreme northeastern Florida, near Atlantic waters are in conjunction with an elongated surface trough interacting with an upper-level disturbance. Despite a weak surface low forming within the trough near Orlando, little, if any, further development of the system is expected as a result of land interaction, strong shear, and an abundance of dry air in the mid-levels.
Development or not, heavy rain could cause flooding over portions of the Carolinas tonight and Wednesday. Gusty winds could produce rough marine conditions and life-threatening surf and rip currents along the northeastern Florida, Georgia, and the Carolina coasts through tomorrow.
Look for the next blog update here by 7:00 PM tomorrow.
Owner - ApexStorm
RAINY MEMORIAL DAY: It has been very wet today with most of the Metroplex and North Texas region receiving rain at some point in the day. The general consensus has received an inch of rain over the past 24 hours, with many isolated spots of three inches or greater. The sky is mostly cloudy, and temperatures are in the 67-91 degree range this late afternoon. Rain will continue to move to the north with time.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: The upper-level trough in our state will begin to weaken and gradually move to the east, towards the Deep South. This will bring a noticeable decrease in the amount of showers and storms to the region during the mid-week period. Look for occasional showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. Highs will warm to the upper 70s to low 80s due to the lack of rain-cooled air. Rain distribution will not be even, but many communities will likely see an additional quarter of an inch of rain before the weekend.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The weather will trend drier by the weekend as an unusually dry airmass builds across the south-central US. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday are looking very pleasant with mostly sunny skies, lower humidity levels, and continued cool nights. Highs will be in the 80-85 degree range, and lows will mostly be in the upper 60s.
NEXT WEEK: The first half of the week will continue to feature a dry airmass. Scattered storms might return to the forecast by the end of the week.
ON THIS DAY IN 2008: A rare, large, and destructive EF5 tornado created a 43-mile long path across Butler and Black Hawk counties in Iowa. This tornado killed eight people, injured dozens and caused several millions of dollars in damage. The tornado was nearly three-quarters of a mile wide as it moved through the southern end of Parkersburg. A third of the town was affected by devastating damage with nearly 200 homes destroyed. This storm produced the first EF5 tornado in Iowa since June 13, 1976 and only the third EF5 tornado to occur in the United States in the past ten years.
Look for the next North Texas Weather blog update by 5:30 PM tomorrow...
After a relatively dry and warm Saturday, clusters of scattered showers and storms returned to the metroplex today, bringing our tentative May rainfall up to 4.21 inches at DFW, despite local areas seeing even more rain. However, looking forward through the next week, the story will be more of the same as rain continues to play a factor every single day.
Throughout the last week, and through the weekend, mesoscale convective systems (which I will refer to as MCS) plagued North Texas with spotty, scattered cells dropping plenty of rain for some and missing others entirely. The prevalence of multiple daily MCS will become prevalent throughout the week ahead, making it an extremely complicated setup for all forecasters as some places in Texas may see up to 5 inches of rain while others barely see a drop.
SEVERE SETUP OVERNIGHT:
The first wave of scattered storms will develop this afternoon for much of Texas, with the possibility of hail for some. As the storms developed around DFW, they could be accompanied by up to golf ball sized hail and gusty winds caused by significant downdrafts. In addition, storms are likely to move into DFW overnight from the west, which could intercept the slow moving MCS that is around North Texas now. The squall line will be weakening as it enters the metroplex, but it is still plausible that some areas receive hail or straight-line winds.
EARLY NEXT WEEK:
Monday and Tuesday will continue to see multiple MCS move throughout the metroplex, with it being difficult to know who exactly will and won’t receive rain. The shortwave from the Rockies that moved in over the weekend, combined with a weakness found in the gulf, means that our rain profile will transition from severe storms to more of a tropical-like rain pattern, akin to places like Orlando. Clouds and rain will keep temperatures in the high 70s, but high dew points indicate that flash flooding will be extremely possible for areas that receive high amounts of rainfall, especially with the high amounts of continuous rain and high precip action rates that could happen early next week. Most of Texas will see heavy rain but scattered thunderstorms are still possible. That being said, the severe risk is considerably lower for the early part of next week than has been with previous events. All of this is the early shift to an eventual wet pattern that could be in place over Texas for weeks to come.
As the rest of the week progresses, a slow-moving ULL vortex will make its way over DFW by mid week, exacerbating the continuous rainfall conditions by sitting over parts of North Texas from late Tuesday through Friday. Similar to ULL events of the past (such as the one that brought a record 12 inches of snow to DFW in February of 2010!) indicate that the threat of floods will continue to increase throughout the week as high levels of sustained precipitation will impact weakened areas and potentially cause flash flooding. However, this combined ULL and MCS event is still a few days out, so being able to anticipate what areas will receive the most amount of rain is impossible at this time. While it’s likely that all parts of NTX could receive well over 2 inches of rain over the next 5 days, it’s not improbable that some areas receive rain every day while others only see rain one day. However, continue to prepare as if it will affect you—flooding is extremely dangerous and if you live in low-lying areas or around weak dams/smaller streams, pay extremely close attention to the weather as the week develops, as it will become apparent quickly whether or not the flood risk is greater or less than it appears to be right now. Throughout this whole event, temperatures are to remain in 70s mostly, as although highs are forecasted to be in the 80s, the prevalence of rain that is forecasted and the dew points indicate that temperatures will likely be suppressed by the rain. In summary, rain will be here to stay for this week and 2-5 inches of rain is extremely likely for most everyone.
The wet pattern continues! Confidence is increasing that we are nowhere near done with this wet pattern, and it could persist for weeks. There is an excerpt from the FWD AFD that I think best sums up how things are looking for the end of May and early June. “The rainfall will further strengthen the troughing aloft, which will in turn lead to more rain events.” As we get these prolonged, heavy rain events, it will, by default, delay a lot of ridging that brings us a lot of our summertime, dry heat. It’s looking more and more likely that we will continue to dodge triple digit weather in favor of wet conditions.
Stay safe, stay dry, and stay weather aware!
EARLY MORNING WAKE-UP CALL: After midnight, a lone thunderstorm out near Wichita Falls began making a turn to the south, cycling as it made its way to the metroplex. By the 4:30-5:30 timeframe, the storm produced frequent cloud to ground lightning, some damaging winds, and golf-ball sized hail. The NWS Office in Fort Worth measured 1.5" hail at 4:26 am.
The storm has weakened and has subsequently continued to push to the east/southeast. We will remain partly sunny and dry for at least the early afternoon hours, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY OVERNIGHT: A rather unstable airmass is expected to hold and move south this evening into tonight, and high resolution data suggests rapid development of severe thunderstorms at around sunset just to the south of Wichita Falls. SPC has issued a wind-driven
"moderate risk" (level 4 of 5) of severe storms for parts of northeast Texas and East Oklahoma. The rest of North Texas is surrounded by an "enhanced risk" (level 3 of 5) of severe storms, extending down to Central Texas.
UPDATE: AS OF 11:30 TODAY, DFW HAS NOW BEEN ADDED TO THE MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS AND VERY LARGE HAIL IS INCREASING.
TIMING: Storms will likely develop near Wichita Falls after 7PM and move southward through the region overnight. The broad window for severe storms in North Texas will be from 8PM to 7AM tomorrow morning. The focused window will be from 10PM to 4PM through the metroplex.
THREATS: Any storm clusters that form during the early stages will have the possibility of becoming quite severe, posing the threat of very large hail (up to the size of tennis balls), damaging winds, and tornadoes. Any clusters will very quickly congeal into a QLCS (quasi-linear convective system), mainly posing the risk for damaging winds, some up to hurricane force gusts of 80 mph or more (remember, damaging straight-line winds can produce tornado-like damage). The highest tornado probabilities will be focused in the northeast corner of Texas and extreme southeast Oklahoma.
RAINFALL: Rain amounts of around 1-1.5" inches is possible across the region, with isolated higher amounts. Some flooding is possible with torrential rainfall.
CALL TO ACTION: Be sure to have multiple way of receiving warnings during the overnight hours (don't rely on a siren!!!). In your safe place, make sure you have helmets for everyone in your family. If you are in a mobile home, know your location of a site built-shelter, and how to get there quickly.
This is the day to treat severe thunderstorm warnings very seriously. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally produce tornadoes and tornado-like straight line wind speeds. Make sure your NOAA Weather Radio is on overnight, so it can wake you up if you are sleep while these storms are coming through. Also, make sure you are in our text-messaging system (text @apexstorm to 81010).
Owner - ApexStorm
After a nice Saturday, a continued nice day is expected today with highs in the lower 80s expected with abundant sunshine. A few more clouds will be possible later this afternoon, but dry weather is expected.
Tomorrow overall will remain fairly uneventful, but a decaying area of showers and storms will dive out of Oklahoma early tomorrow afternoon and may set up an outflow boundary somewhere in North Texas. This may allow for a very low storm chance, however no severe weather is expected. Skies will be partly cloudy with highs in the low to mid 80s. A few storms may develop N/W of the region tomorrow evening, and could make a run at our western/northern zones tomorrow night. At this time, severe weather is not expected as weakening is likely. Lows will remain in the upper 60s.
Tuesday is shaping up to be an active severe weather day across parts of the state. While most of the day will be dry, a dryline will sharpen out to the west and will be the focus (along with a cold front in Oklahoma) for thunderstorm development. There are uncertainties about a capping inversion aloft preventing storm initiation, however some models (incl. Euro) have shown rather explosive supercellular development just west of I/35 late afternoon on Tuesday and moving eastward into our area during the early evening hours.
The Storm Prediction Center has already outlined much of the area in a "Slight Risk" for severe weather on Tuesday for storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Remember, the initial threat of severe weather is conditional, but if storms develop they could be rather intense.
Notice the area inside the black circle (includes much of North Texas, including DFW) where the SPC has concerns for significant severe weather. (hatched risk) We are closely monitoring this.
Tuesday afternoon and evening isn't our only risk of storms. As a cold front slides in during the early overnight hours, an additional area of storms could develop. The best chance will be along and east of I/35 where better bouyancy and moisture remains. These storms could also be severe, primarily with damaging winds and a low tornado threat. Large hail still isn't ruled out with these storms.
The rest of the week will be much calmer but remaining warm with highs in the 80s.
Our next storm system will approach by next Sunday, and increasing southerly flow could shoot temperatures into the 90s with storm chances increasing, especially into early next week. Given the climatology, severe weather would certainly be in the realm of possibility. However, this is a week out and too many of uncertainties exist to get into any sort of detail. Have a great Sunday!
THIS AFTERNOON: It warmed very nicely to the mid 70s around lunch time! We will continue to see the temperature warm to the low 80s during the late afternoon and evening hours.
THREAT OF SUPERCELLS TOMORROW: Let's just preface this blog by saying that this is the most serious threat of severe weather we have had in recent years. We saw what has been going on the past couple of Sunday's in Dixie Alley and Mississippi, and knew that our time was inevitably coming. So, here we are.
Another vigorous spring weather system will impact the Ark-La-Tex and Piney Woods region tomorrow afternoon and evening, with the threat of tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds.
SETUP: The mid-level jet will become coupled with the low-level jet by the afternoon and evening hours, especially after sunset, creating a favorable combination of lift, shear, and helicity for potentially strong tornadoes and very large to perhaps giant sized hail. The greatest probabilities for a localized episode of tornadoes is forecast from south-central Oklahoma through much of the North-Central Texas in the greatest threat of the "enhanced risk" area. In addition to the tornado risk, very large to giant sized (golf ball sized or larger) hail and wind damage will like be likely across a large part of the Ark-La-Tex region tomorrow afternoon and evening. The threat for damaging winds is expected to increase as a mesoscale convective system (MCS) moves eastward across East Texas overnight, eventually into Louisiana and Arkansas by Thursday morning.
An hour ago, the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has defined a "enhanced risk" (level 3/5) for areas along and east of I-35 and along and south of I-40 in Oklahoma and Arkansas. There is the standard "slight risk" (level 2/5) from generally to the east of Wichita Falls into the Houston area, and a "marginal risk" (level 1/5) defined as far out as Wichita Falls, Ranger, New Braunfels, and Victoria.
PLACEMENT: The position of the dryline tomorrow afternoon will determine the extent of the hail and tornado risk in North Texas. I believe the dryline will be somewhere near, or just to the west of I-35 (Denton to Waco).
TIMING: The main window for severe thunderstorms will come from around 4:00PM to 10:00 PM. The threat will initiate in Northwest Texas, shifting to the east through the evening and overnight hours.
THREATS: Thunderstorms over North-central Texas will be capable of producing very large to giant sized hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Strong tornadoes (EF2 or greater) will be possible in the North Texas region, which includes the DFW Metroplex.
CALL TO ACTION: It is late April. You know the drill. Be sure you have a way of receiving warnings. Have an action plan if you find yourself under a tornado warning polygon.
•Have a NOAA Weather Radio in your home and workplace. Ensure that it is properly programmed with a fresh battery in it in case of power outages.
•Make sure you have WEA (Wireless Emergency Alerts) enabled on your phone. Go to Settings > Notification > then scroll all the way down and make sure emergency alerts are on. Make sure you are in our free ApexStorm text messaging system as a secondary way of getting warnings. Text @apexstorm to 81010.
•Identify the safe place in your home, which is a small room (hall, closet, bathroom), on the lowest floor, near the center of your house, away from windows. In that safe place, have helmets for everyone that lives with you, portable airhorns, and hard-sole shoes.
•If you are in a tornado warning polygon, you musn't stay in a mobile home. Know where the closest site-built structure is located, and how to quickly get there.
•Protecting yourself from a tornado is the first priority when it comes to the Coronavirus pandemic. Tornadoes and hail are immediate threats to life and property; get to your safe place first, then do the best you can to prevent the spread of the virus.
Aforementioned above, there is the risk of a few tornadoes, but we will not see a system over 100 tornadoes in Dixie Alley on Easter Sunday. However, just know that all it takes it one tornado in the entire region, and if you come down your street, that is YOUR tornado event.
ANXIETY: We are all tired of the Coronavirus. We are not here to scare anyone, or add to everyone's level of worry. However, we need to do our jobs of letting you know about the severity of the weather tomorrow. If you are feeling anxious reading this, just keep in mind that even in a severe weather outbreak, the chance of your house being hit by a tornado is low.
Be sure to follow @donowx, @LoganShipleyWx, and @weltywx on Twitter, as we will be frequently posting forecast updates, warnings, and rapidly changing conditions on there.
Owner - ApexStorm