Nice week ahead in north/central tX

After a relatively chilly day, we will clear out overnight. We will fall to the mid 40s overnight, but our far northern counties may fall to the upper 30s.

We will warm up to the upper 60s tomorrow afternoon with partly cloudy skies in play.

On Tuesday, we will warm up even more to the lower 70s. Abundant sunshine is expected to be in place.

On Wednesday, we do the same thing all over again with highs in the upper 70s. Some moisture will return, likely with afternoon cumulus clouds with fairly humid conditions in place.

On Thursday, we will do the same thing AGAIN, but highs will be in the mid 80s.

On Friday, a cold front and a dryline will approach the area during the afternoon. The newest guidance has trended farther to the west with the dryline, increasing our storm chances.

Most of the ensembles/models have surface based convective available potential energy approaching 3000 J/kg with higher amounts likely. The feature during the day Friday will be a deep/amplified mid-level trough that will approach the Plains during the afternoon hours on Friday. It will increase west/southwesterly flow aloft will bring in steep lapse rates over the southern plains. Also, strong low-level mass response will feature a corridor of enhanced theta-e transport, mainly from Texas to the lower Missouri Valley. As a dry line and cold front move into this area of interest, (including the Dallas/Fort Worth area) it will weaken the cap and allow for severe storms to develop along and east of this feature. At this time, this feature (dryline) remains the most uncertain at this time. I expect to get these details refined and more precise heading into the upcoming week. The most favored area for severe weather looks to be along and east of a line from Bowie to Mineral Wells to Hamilton. While it's too early to become too specific, steep low-level lapse rates will support a risk of very large hail, and the bulk shear from the surface to 500mb will support a risk of rotating supercells leading to a risk of tornadoes and damaging winds. Because of these severe weather parameters being in place, I think it's safe to say at this point that all modes of severe weather may be possible during this time.

As the cold front will bring strong cold air advection into the region, highs will struggle to get out of the 50s & 60s heading into Saturday, but a warming trend looks to take place on Sunday into next week.

Jonathan Williams
Weather Forecaster/Meteorologist
Severe Weather Specialist
NWS/NOAA Ambassador