MIDDAY: Morning clouds are continuing to clear the North-Central Texas region as we become more comfortable throughout the afternoon with temperatures approaching the low 70s with a easterly wind. Any chance of showers and storms will remain to the south of San Antonio.
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF TEXAS TOMORROW: Tomorrow's severe potential will mark the beginning of a multi-day outbreak of severe weather that will last until Monday for parts of the Southern US. A potent storm system with very strong wind fields will advance east through this weekend, interacting with a very unstable airmass across the Deep South. As the atmosphere destabilizes, long-track, severe storms will evolve where the cap erodes, and will move east/north-east, capable of producing violent tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds, depending on where you are in the Deep South. Our day of severe weather will be tomorrow afternoon through evening for much of Texas. The greatest threat of severe weather will lie in Central Texas, as I will show below.
The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has issued an "enhanced risk" (level 3 of 5) of severe storms for a fine from Del Rio to Lufkin, with the standard "slight risk" (level 2 of 5) encompassing the rest of the state.
Like I say with any severe threat (this goes for those that are reading this anywhere in the Deep South), please be advised that these maps are only used for guidelines and that these storms do not follow these colors. These risks are used to simply illustrate where the best combination of thermodynamics and dynamics lie.
TIMING: I expect thunderstorm development at around the 1-2PM time frame in Central Texas, and will open the broad window for strong to severe storms in North-Central Texas from around 4PM to 11PM.
THREATS: All modes of severe weather will be possible, including the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Right now, we are looking at a potential MCS (mesoscale convective system) of strong to severe storms capable of producing large hail and gusty winds. However, keep in mind that any storm that becomes discrete will have the potential of producing a strong, long-tracked tornado. The warm sector is sufficiently north with low level shear of over 40kts in many places, combined with 90kts of 8kts shear will make for a very volatile environment for a tornado to thrive in. Also, this is mainly after the sun is set, which would make matters a little more worse because of the low level jet intensifying any shear and upper air forcing already existent. However, there is one caveat. If the storm mode is messy like what the meso models depict, there is a good chance that hail and damaging winds will be a primary threat. Keep in mind that this is entirely conditional and will depend on current observations tomorrow. I am not anticipating a tornado event, but an isolated strong tornado is possible, but not likely at this present time.
RAIN: Rain should be confined to a little less than an inch, so flooding should not be a concern in North-Central Texas.
CALL TO ACTION: I am very cognizant that we are in a time in our society that most people in the DFW Metroplex, and nationwide, are suffering from high anxiety due to the rapidly changing conditions in the midst of a global pandemic. The last thing we want to do as trusted forecasters is to add to that anxiety, but at the same time, we must present the weather situation the way it currently stands right now so you can be prepared. If you are located anywhere in the Deep South (not just Texas), just know that there is no reason to panic about the next couple of days, you just have to ensure that you and your family take the requisite steps to ensure that you are as safe as possible.
First and foremost, you must have a way of receiving warning. NEVER RELY ON AN OUTDOOR SIREN. The baseline is each house being equipped with a NOAA Weather Radio that has fresh batteries, and is properly programmed (start here to get frequency and SAME code information for your area).
On your phone, make sure WEA (Wireless Emergency Alerts) are enabled in your settings, under notifications. Furthermore, if you live in the DFW Metroplex, make sure to text @apexstorm to 81010 so you get notifications for when severe weather impacts the Metroplex.
Know where your safe place is located, and be sure to have helmets and hard sole shoes, airhorns, or whistles for everyone in your house. If you are in a mobile home, know where you are going and how to quickly get there in the event of a tornado.
No need to fear about the weekend. Keep a close eye on my twitter and the ApexStorm Facebook page. We will get through Saturday and Sunday together.
Owner - ApexStorm