*been very busy on a time crunch, so no Texas Weather Discussion Video today ):*
CLOUDS STICKING THROUGH THE DAY: We will continue to see widespread thin cloud cover across North Texas today, and I wouldn't be shocked if we see a shower or two during the day as moisture levels continue to increase. We will warm a few degrees during the late afternoon hours. After the storms tomorrow morning, we transition to spring-like weather with mostly sunny, breezy conditions. Tomorrow's high will be in the mid to upper 70s.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING: Another vigorous storm system will develop in the Central Plains and move toward the Great Lakes this weekend, with support from troughing. Combining this with moist, unstable air coming from the Gulf of Mexico will result in the risk of severe storms impacting the south-central and south-eastern United States over the course of tonight throughout the weekend. In North Texas, this evening will continue to stay mild with highs in the mid to upper 70s, but the main threat of strong to severe storms will come during the overnight hours into Saturday morning.
The latest Day One Convective Outlook from the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) outlines much of North Texas in the standard "slight risk" (level 2 of 5) of severe weather. More specifically, from Fayetteville, Arkansas through Mason, Texas. A "marginal risk" of severe storms generally surrounds the standard risk area from southern Missouri through areas just to the south of Interstate 10. Keep in mind that this convective outlook is valid until 6:00 AM Saturday morning.
TIMING: The main window for strong to severe storms across North Texas will come from 1:00 AM tomorrow through 6:00 AM. The higher resolution models suggest that a batch of rain will start over West Texas and the Panhandle and will intensify into strong/severe storms as upper air forcing starts kicking into place, followed by a post-line of strong to severe thunderstorms during the late morning hours in North-Central/East Texas, generally for areas to the east of I-35. Our round of storms during the pre-dawn hours will have the highest probability of turning severe, as we have adequate moisture, instability, and with dynamic forcing starting to come into play.
PLACEMENT: Although the standard "slight risk" runs all the way to the north of I-10. The greatest potential for large hail will still be confined to the North Texas region and points to the east of Oklahoma City.
THREATS: The more discrete cells will pose a threat of mainly large hail. Damaging winds will be possible with storms that turn more linear in nature. The tornado potential is very low, but never zero.
RAIN: Accumulated rainfall totals of 1/2 inch or more is possible during the weekend, which is not enough for any flash flooding issues.
P5: If you put this into perspective, overall severe weather risk for North Texas is not high, meaning, we are NOT expecting a widespread severe weather event/outbreak. This is just a routine threat of strong to severe thunderstorms that you will see more commonly as we head into the peak of severe weather season. We can use this as good practice for when we actually have a severe weather event. It is a good idea (when you get home) to clean out the storm closest or basement and have a reliable, robust way of receiving warnings. NEVER RELY ON AN OUTDOOR WARNING SIREN AS YOUR PRIMARY METHOD OF RECEIVING WARNINGS. IF THIS IS YOUR ONLY METHOD, YOU WILL HAVE NO HOPE OF RECEIVING WARNINGS WHEN YOU ARE SLEEP.
SUNDAY: We will be dry during the morning hours, but we will mention the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours as the warm front lifts to the north and carries a bit of moisture behind it. We will turn mostly cloudy with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.
NEXT WEEK: We begin talking about another chance of scattered showers on Monday before we talk about another robust threat of severe weather on Tuesday. The SPC has outlined a risk of severe storms already in their Day 5 outlook for West Texas.
We will have to watch the potential for a more robust severe weather event with potential for a squall line to move through the state during the afternoon and evening hours. At this point, it is too early to pinpoint any potential impacts or exact timing or placement, so be sure to keep up to date with the latest forecasts.
The rest of the week will feature clearing skies with highs in the upper 50s.
DAYLIGHT SAVING TIME BEGINS: DST begins this Sunday... Be sure to set your clocks forward an hour before you go to bed Saturday night. Sunset in DFW on Sunday will be at 7:32 PM CDT.
I will stay up to cover thunderstorms in North Texas early tomorrow morning if any warnings are issued! Be sure to stick with me and Jonathan William's Twitter Feed and Periscopes for live updates throughout the night.
I will be traveling throughout spring break to Indianapolis to participate in the 2019 National Honor Band of America at the Music for All National Concert Festival. Updates, if any, will become very limited next week. Have a great weekend and enjoy next week!