Good day in sTore for your eaSter!

Happy Easter, North Texas. He has risen!

Today, while the kiddos are doing any festivities or your family may be heading out to church, it will be mild and humid across the area with plenty of cloud cover in place. A few breaks in the clouds are possible through the day, and as a boundary approaches, we may see isolated sprinkles/showers and possibly a storm or two. No severe weather is anticipated. Coverage will be minimal and favor areas north of I/20. This boundary will stall at the I/20 corridor overnight. This is when the forecast turns difficult. The NAM has much colder air with lows near 37°F, but many other models have us near 50°F. I will favor the warmer solution, but will monitor trends as needed. This will also affect Monday, as some models have us in the 70s with isolated strong storms (one or two severe isn't ruled out, but overall severe risk on Monday is very low) meanwhile a few other models have widespread drizzle/fog/low clouds with highs in the 40s. This will be a close call, and I will favor the warmer solution, but will lower highs to mid 60s to blend solutions together. This is a very hard forecast.

Either way, this front will lift north Monday night and will draw in warmer and humid air back into Texas Tuesday morning. As a dryline, cold front, upper level trough, moisture, instability, and shear meets in our area, strong-severe storms are forecast to develop Tuesday afternoon/evening, with the best chance of severe weather east of I/35. Large hail and damaging winds look to be the primary risks, but a few isolated tornadoes aren't ruled out at this time.

Cooler air and dry air moves in Wednesday, before warming up Thursday with storm chances returning by Friday associated with our next frontal boundary that may bring some cooler air back into North Texas.

Jonathan Williams
Weather Forecaster
Storm Specialist
NWS/NOAA Ambassador