VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AHEAD: You will want to pay attention to the weather over the next 24 hours as we will have the dual threat of some flash flooding and severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
CALM BEFORE THE STORM: As advertised, a cluster of ongoing severe storms to the west of the metroplex is starting to turn more to the north with time. The chance of severe storms is low, but not zero this morning across the metroplex. We are currently "lull" right now, as we have sun and few clouds over the metroplex currently. Our real threat for severe storms does not begin until the afternoon.
ROUND ONE: A complex of severe storms are currently ongoing for areas just to the west of the DFW Metroplex, and is moving to the east-northeast at 45 mph. One or two of these storms could turn severe with strong, straight-line winds and hail up to the size of quarters possible. For here, the sun has been breaking out in some places, and temperatures will rise to the upper 80s in some spots by the afternoon. With dewpoints in the upper 70s currently, this will make for a very unstable, volatile airmass by the mid afternoon hours.
ROUND TWO: New storms could begin to form as early as 12:00 PM today over the North Texas region ahead of the complex of storms in the increasingly unstable air, and as dynamic support increases, we will have a risk of severe storms through this late evening.
TIMING: We will focus on the broad 12 hour window from 12:00 PM until 12:00 AM. Supercell development could begin as early as 11:00 AM this morning (you will need to pay attention to all warnings throughout this morning and afternoon), but the better combination of dynamics and thermodynamics will come this mid-afternoon into the early evening hours.
PLACEMENT: The SPC has defined an "enhanced risk" of severe weather for all of North-Central Texas and for our adjacent states to the northeast with the standard "slight risk" of severe storms encompassing much of Central and West Texas, including Abilene and San Antonio. The highest tornado probabilities are in the enhanced risk, and a strong tornado or two is not out of the question for North Texas. But, be advised that a tornado is possible anywhere in the state today.
MODES: In addition to tornadoes, severe thunderstorms will primarily produce very large hail. The damaging wind threat will come in the late afternoon/early evening hours.
FLOODING: A flash flood watch remains in effect for much of the North Texas area through tonight; average rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches are likely, with isolated totals to 4 inches. This could create localized flash flooding.
CALL TO ACTION: Be sure you can hear severe weather watches and warnings this afternoon, and know where you are going if you are under a tornado warning polygon. And, be sure you have a readiness kit in your safe place, including helmets, air horns, and hard sole shoes. For more informations, including thoughts on apps for your phone, please see this post.
TOMORROW: Once the severe weather clears, we will transition to our very mild pattern with a mix of sun and clouds with occasional isolated showers and storms. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s.
THE WEEKEND: Not much change. Sunny, mostly pleasant days and clear, mild nights. We project seasonal temperatures with highs in the upper 80/low 90 degree range.
NEXT WEEK: The weather for much of next week will feature highs in the low 90s with mostly sunny skies and pleasant weather. Occasional showers and storms are possible on Monday and Thursday. See the Texas Weather Discussion Video for more details.