LATE MAY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT - As we head towards the beginning of the start of Meteorological Summer (June 1), this is usually where severe weather activity is the highest in the Plains. This year is no exception. There have been 288 confirmed tornadoes so far in May, with 15 of them being intense EF3 tornadoes. Luckily, we are not looking at a tornado threat this time, but it could be another stormy evening.
The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the "enhanced risk" (level 3 of 5) of severe storms to include the DFW Metroplex and points to the north and east, away from the state. The standard "slight risk" (level 2 of 5) of severe storms includes areas to the outside of the DFW Metroplex, including West and Central Texas.
Just with any severe weather threat, please be advised that this is a guideline and storms do not know or follow any of these risk lines; all of North and Central Texas has some chance of seeing severe weather tomorrow.
TIMING: Some isolated storms are possible in the late morning hours, but severe storms will develop around the 1-3PM timeframe. The complex of severe storms will affect the metroplex at around 4PM-11PM time frame. Although some isolated storms will develop, most of it will come in a form of supercells.
THREATS: Since a mess of severe thunderstorms is our primary concern this time, the tornado threat is relatively low, but not zero due to the abundance of storms expected. Even if supercells develop, the main threat would be very large hail (up to tennis ball size) and damaging winds. If the storm takes a more "linear" mode, the damaging wind threat will be the most robust. Some gusts have the potential of reaching tornado-like wind speeds with the most intense parts of the complex.
RAIN: The secondary threat Wednesday evening will come from heavy rain. Rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches overall is possible. With the possibility of locally higher amounts with any slow moving storms, a Flash Flood Watch (dark green) has been issued for some counties in North Texas to address this possibility.
CALL TO ACTION: This is just like any other threat of severe weather here in the Southern Plains. Just make sure you have a way of receiving weather warnings on your phone by having a good weather warning app. If you happen to be under a severe thunderstorm warning, just be sure to distance yourself from any doors and windows in case of hail or damaging wind. And, of course, if you are in a tornado warning, seek shelter in your interior room on the lowest part of your home, away from windows.
Be sure to follow my twitter @apex_dfw_wx for any further updates this evening and tomorrow.