NICE SPRING DAY: As forecasted, temperatures are currently in the mid 70s; DFW Airport reports 77 degrees at around 1:10 which is about two degrees below our average high for April 29th. We will continue to warm throughout the afternoon, and we should end up in the low 80s for most communities. The sky will continue to feature a mixture of sun and clouds.
ANOTHER RAINY/STORMY WEEK AHEAD: Recently, our upper air pattern has been showcasing a digging trough in the Southwestern US followed by a ridge in the east. This pattern has kept us in a southwestern flow aloft, which is the main catalyst for rain and strong to severe storms in our state. We will once again have another of those patterns this week, starting tomorrow.
First and foremost, the Storm Prediction Center updated their Day Two Outlook an hour ago. One of the notable differences is the overall risk shift to the south. The standard "slight risk" for severe storms (level 2 out of 5) has been defined for much of the North-Central Texas coverage area with the exception for the communities located south and east of a curved line from Kaufman to Goldthwaite. An "enhanced risk" for severe storms exists for Oklahoma, Kansas and some of their neighboring states, but that's not our concern as of now.
One of the concepts I want you all to understand is the term, conditional. When you hear us use this word, we use it in context along the lines of "there is a conditional threat of severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening for all of the North Texas region.". The words in the quotes are indeed true. However, because this is a conditional threat of severe storms tomorrow, that means severe weather is not guaranteed for anyone. And if we see some development somewhere, not everyone will see severe weather at their house. This can largely be attributed to the uncertainties of the atmosphere and what it could do. To keep it simple, I won't elaborate on this, but in most cases, we don't realize our real potential of thunderstorms developing until we observe current observations. However, IF storms can break the mixed-layer and develop, atmospheric parameters are in place for discrete storms that can pose a threat for mainly large hail and gusty winds. Although, a brief tornado can not be ruled out in some spots. The best potential for large hail will actually be to the west of the DFW metroplex, out in West Texas and near the Red River. Once again, please be advised that this threat of severe weather tomorrow is highly conditional, so, it is in your best interest to keep a close eye on the radar and forecast tomorrow.
However, better chances of severe thunderstorms will come Wednesday afternoon. This time around, the SPC has all of North Texas under the standard "slight risk" of severe storms.
Because there are better returns regarding a shortwave trough in West Texas, there is subsequently more confidence of showers and thunderstorms developing. This time, there is a better chance of a potential line of severe storms posing a threat of damaging winds. Like always, a brief tornado is never completely out of the question. The main window for severe thunderstorms for the North Texas area on Wednesday from 1:00 PM to 1:00 AM Thursday morning.
If you we don't see severe weather on Tuesday or Wednesday, we would leave the week completely empty, as we will likely deal with a heavy rain threat during the day on Wednesday. Some flooding will become possible for the communities that receives rainfall on Tuesday. Rain amounts averaging two inches will become possible throughout the metroplex with isolated higher amounts.
The surface front stalls on Wednesday, which means we will need to continue to add shower and thunderstorm chances through the Saturday morning hours. It will be nearly impossible to determine exact start/stop times due to the scattered pattern of the thunderstorms. Just know that there will be a chance for rain at least each day.
Each day will feature mostly cloud cover with some sunshine. Afternoon highs during the week will vary from the low 80s to around 77 degrees on Friday. We will not fall below the low 60s for morning lows.
THE WEEKEND: The stalled surface front will finally move to the southeast early Saturday morning, and that could bring some final heavy downpours as it exits the region. Once the front leaves, expect eventual clearing with more sun over time. We should be dry and mostly sunny on Sunday. Highs will be in the low 80s on both days.
NEXT WEEK: Long range models continue to indicate that our wet pattern will stick through next week. At this point, it is too early to pinpoint specific rain chances, but do not expect any "summer-like" days anytime soon.
ON THIS DAY IN 2017: A total of 7 tornadoes touched down across Henderson, Hopkins, Rains and Van Zandt counties. This localized tornado outbreak was responsible for killing four people, producing an EF4 tornado near Eustace, and producing another intense tornado just to the east of Canton right after the EF4.