Temperatures right now are rising slowly into the lower to in a few spots the mid 60s, and this trend will continue into the overnight. Odd, huh! Why is this happening? A warm front is moving through the region currently.
Tomorrow near daybreak as the kiddos head off to school and you head off to work, you won't want that jacket! Unless you seem to always be cold, leave it at home! We will wake up near 70°F with humid conditions, along with some low level clouds. I don't expect much precipitation, but a few sprinkles or some mist isn't ruled out, which will just make it feel even more muggy.
By mid to late morning, we will be near 75° with some clouds around, but some sun may be out. If this happens, the afternoon will be worse. I'll get to that in a minute.
A cold front will be near Wichita Falls and will be penetrating south/east. We will be into the upper 70s heading into the lunch hour, with very humid conditions. I still don't expect much rain activity during lunch hour. But, things change mid afternoon.
As mentioned, a strong cold front will he moving into the region. By 2-4PM, it will be near the metroplex. With significant instability approaches 4000, a severe storm risk will be with us. Scattered severe storms are expected to develop in the metroplex, with storm coverage near 30-50%. Storms that develop may produce large hail and damaging straight-line wind gusts, but an isolated tornado isn't ruled out.
These storms will exit the DFW area after 6pm and will continue into our southeast counties. Some storms are expected into Central Texas, mainly along and east of a line from Waco to Austin. (I/35) Some of them may turn severe, primarily with damaging wind gusts and possibly some large hail. A tornado isn't ruled out well east of Waco/Austin.
The cold front will bring in some colder air on Wednesday, with morning temperatures in the upper 30s. It appears unlikely for any frost due to low dewpoint values.
We will only make it to the lower 60s Wednesday afternoon with a northerly wind. Sunshine is expected to be in abundance, but some high level thin clouds are possible, mainly after 1pm.
Another weak disturbance will move through the Central Plains on Thursday, bringing some cumulus fields across the area. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible north of DFW. Highs will be in the upper 70s.
A strong cold front will move into region late Friday evening. A shortwave will also accompany this frontal boundary. Instability amounts won't be too terribly high, but they will suffice for a risk of strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds and large hail. The tornado risk looks fairly low, but it isn't zero. Some more showers and storms are expected Saturday morning, before we dry out and clear out with some much cooler air moving back in. Highs will only be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
We quickly warm up on Sunday however into the 80s. A few models have parts of the area into the 90s as well. What a difference 24 hours can make! Why will this happen? Strong southwesterly winds will quickly push out any cool air and allow us to shoot way up Sunday. With a dryline approaching from the west, some lift, moisture, and ample instability will allow for a few storms to develop. Some storms may turn severe.
We dry out on Monday and we will be noticeably cooler with highs in the mid 60s to near 70°F.