Good morning, I usually write entire blogs for a weeks worth of a forecast, but this time we are only talking about 2 potential severe weather days in North TX, with those being Saturday and Sunday.
TO START OFF:
Saturday morning will be mainly dry for DFWx
but thunderstorms will be erupting across West Texas/Western North Texas. These will track eastward towards the DFW area, most likely arriving early Saturday afternoon. These storms will be capable of large hail and strong wind gusts. However, the tornado risk is up in the air due to uncertainties about if the storms become surface based. Most likely, the storms will be elevated. We will watch and see any potential of surface based convection.
The storms will continue through the evening and will maintain that severe threat. A dry period will begin in the evening, but rapid destabilization despite it being dark outside due to steeper mid-level lapse rates associated with the ejecting trough. This will set the stage for a potentially greater risk of severe storms during the overnight hours. Storms will develop to our W/SW and push into North Texas early Sunday. Despite unfavorable timing, favorable instability and strong shear will keep a severe threat in play. Low level shear will be stronger as well as a kicking LLJ, therefore the tornado risk will be greatest during this time, as well and damaging winds and hail.
Additional thunderstorms may develop late Sunday afternoon along a cold front as well, and a few of these may turn strong with hail and gusty winds, but the severe risk appears low at this time.