Looking At the Severe Weather Threat Today

One thing you must understand is that we are in the midst of severe weather season in Texas, so multi-day severe weather threats are common in North Texas at around this time of the year.  We will be dry tomorrow, but parts of the east will have a significant severe weather risk on their hands tomorrow.

For Today - This is the day we were most concerned and also the most uncertain about.  All of the instability, lift, and shear is there to quickly turn storms quite severe this evening, but the main concern is moisture near the surface by the evening hours.  The Storm Prediction Center has brought back the standard "slight" risk of severe storms to include all of the DFW Metro areas to the north of the I-35E/I-35W joint.

We do note that the SPC has included a 15% hatch area in their hail outlook.  Which means that there is at least a 15% chance of seeing hail that is greater than two inches in diameter within 25 miles of a given point within that region. 

It must be noted that the severe threat is still somewhat uncertain, as the advancement of moisture could prelude any severe thunderstorm development.  But at the same time, the general idea is that moderate instability in a sheared environment with a marginally sufficient Low-Level Jet will support the risk for a few severe storms this evening.

Threat - Any isolated storm that forms this late afternoon and evening will have the potential to turn quite severe with all modes of severe weather possible, including the potential for a couple of tornadoes.  However, the steep mid to low level lapse rates will support the risk for mainly very large hail.  Other factors continue to suggest that significant/2" stones are likely, with the potential for 3" or greater stones with the more discrete supercells.  Any tornado potential will be confined to the DFW metro any places along the Red River area.  

Rain - Rain amounts today will stay very light; under 0.15 inches in most spots.  Flooding will not be a concern today.

Timing - An initial batch of showers and rain will move in from the west at around noon.  Severe thunderstorm development is expected somewhere between 2-3 pm.  The main peak hours for the most intense cells are around 5-7 pm.  We will remain dry for the rest of the night.

Closing Thoughts - As previously mentioned at the top of this both, severe weather threats are very common since mid March falls in the regular spring severe weather season in the Plains.  This is good practice for everyone to be prepared (not scared) should we have a dangerous severe weather day sometime this year.  

Make sure that you have multiple ways of receiving severe weather warnings.  NEVER RELY ON AN OUTDOOR SIREN!!!  You will have NO chance of hearing them if you are indoors, especially if you are asleep.  We recommend that every home and business has a NOAA Weather Radio.  If you are looking for a good weather app for your smartphone, we recommend WeatherRadio by WDT.  Be sure to check the 'Severe Weather Prepardness' tab on this website for more information on how you can keep you and your family safe.