After a day of showers and storms, some severe, I think it's a great time to talk about what May will hold. Unfortunately, we look to have a very stormy may with plenty of severe weather.
Looking at long range data, NAO will turn into a negative phase. The storm track looks to be placed RIGHT OVER Texas. This will bring lots of thunderstorms, and in the early part of May, we may have a chance of strong storms each day. This is a fairly usual pattern, but this May looks to be even stormier than normal.
We also look to have an active dryline through the month. This typically sets up squall lines of severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, and flash flooding. We will closely watch that.
We will also may have an active frontal pattern in the area. This will allow for plenty of lift through the month with deep instability. And with the storm track over us, we may have quite the stormy month.