A cold front will kick off showers and thunderstorms Tuesday evening across North and Central Texas.
day 4 severe weather oUtlook via spc
As a cold front, instability, moisture, lift, warm air, and high severe weather parameters move into the area, strong to severe thunderstorms are forecasted to develop.
The European model has virtually all of North Texas having a severe risk, GFS has areas east of I/35 and south of I/20 having a severe risk, and the Canadian model has all of North Texas having a severe risk, and the NAM only has far southern central Texas and south Texas having a severe risk. So indeed, plenty of uncertainties remain at this time.
While we have uncertainties, we have the general idea that a severe risk will unfold across parts of North and Central Texas, it's just we are uncertain as to which areas will be favored, which is why the Storm Prediction Center has a very broad area circled in the 15% severe probability category, therefore refraining them from introducing any 30% severe probability areas due to very high levels of uncertainties.
Regardless of where this severe risk sets up, any area in North/Central Texas will be quite unstable. The primary risks of severe weather is very large hail and damaging wind gusts, but a few tornadoes are possible with very strong shear in place.
What does all of this mean?
It means that the area should be on alert and staying up to date on the latest forecasts, as we expect models to come to one solution in the next 24-36 hours. Or at least we hope they do! ;)
Which model solution am I leaning towards?
I am completely against the NAM solution, because it is an outlier and it has the cold air on Monday, which would knock out any instability or warm air on Tuesday. I am leaning towards the global model solutions, because they all seem fairly plausible given the progressive upper level flow. The European model I am most certain with because 1) it's the most accurate model and 2) because the progressive pattern outlook seems most likely, as the GFS model is a bit to aggressive on the overall pattern phase. I will continue to refine my forecast over the next several days. Follow us on twitter @apexwxdfw and @apex_wx_dfw for the latest forecasts and expect blogs throughout the next several days.