Good morning, I usually write entire blogs for a weeks worth of a forecast, but this time we are only talking about 2 potential severe weather days in North TX, with those being Saturday and Sunday.
TO START OFF:
Saturday morning will be mainly dry for DFWx
but thunderstorms will be erupting across West Texas/Western North Texas. These will track eastward towards the DFW area, most likely arriving early Saturday afternoon. These storms will be capable of large hail and strong wind gusts. However, the tornado risk is up in the air due to uncertainties about if the storms become surface based. Most likely, the storms will be elevated. We will watch and see any potential of surface based convection.
The storms will continue through the evening and will maintain that severe threat. A dry period will begin in the evening, but rapid destabilization despite it being dark outside due to steeper mid-level lapse rates associated with the ejecting trough. This will set the stage for a potentially greater risk of severe storms during the overnight hours. Storms will develop to our W/SW and push into North Texas early Sunday. Despite unfavorable timing, favorable instability and strong shear will keep a severe threat in play. Low level shear will be stronger as well as a kicking LLJ, therefore the tornado risk will be greatest during this time, as well and damaging winds and hail.
Additional thunderstorms may develop late Sunday afternoon along a cold front as well, and a few of these may turn strong with hail and gusty winds, but the severe risk appears low at this time.
After a cloudy and fairly chilly day in the 50s (relative for March) widespread rain will move in late tonight. Some of this could be heavy at times, with 1-2" possible in some spots. Best chance is north of I/20, where we have advertised a 100% chance of rain. No severe storms are expected with chilly temperature, but a few storms with lightning and a little small hail aren't completely out of the question.
These will move out by mid morning tomorrow, but a couple scattered showers will linger through the day. Highs will be in the 60s.
Tuesday and Wednesday will have scattered afternoon storms, however both Tuesday night and Wednesday night a line of potentially strong or severe thunderstorms may develop in West Texas and make a run at North Texas. Right now, I think they stay northwest especially Tuesday night. Wednesday nights forecast will have a large affect on Thursday. If a line of storms comes in Thursday morning, we will have to see how much destabilization we can have during the afternoon. If there is enough, strong or severe thunderstorms will likely redevelop. There's also a possibility that the squall line stays north and west of the area, and that would increase the risk of severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening along the dryline. IF storms develop, they would be capable of large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Stay tuned on that aspect of the forecast as we work through details.
A strong cold front will push in Thursday night, and an additional line of storms may develop. Some of these will pose a severe threat as well.
Friday will be cooler in the 60s, and a few morning showers or storms will be possible.
Saturday and Sunday will be chilly in the 40s and 50s potentially, with increasing rain chances as a disturbance approaches from the south. Nothing heavy or severe is projected at this time.
Before you read any further, please be advised that this is not unprecedented, or out of the norm for North Texas. Around this time of the year is where we start to see our late severe weather season take place, and today will be no exception to that.
Let's start off by saying the majority of your Sunday in North Texas will be dry and sunny with the DFW High at 87°. Things will start to get more interesting this evening, first starting to the north around Texoma and our Red River counties, expanding southeastward into the North Texas area.
SEVERE WEATHER RISK TONIGHT: There is an "enhanced risk" (level 3 of 5) of severe storms for areas to the north of Interstate 30 and along and east of Interstate 35. This is the area outside of the Greater DFW Metroplex. Surrounding that risk, we have the standard "slight risk" (level 2 of 5) of severe storms for the rest of our North Texas, excluding those past the I35 split just to the north of Waco. Lastly, a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) encompasses much of the Central Texas area.
Keep in mind that storms do not know where these specific zones are and do not follow them as such. These are just guides to illustrate where the best combination of thermodynamics and dynamics resides tonight.
TIMING: An isolated severe thunderstorm or two could develop at around 5PM around the Texoma area. However, a strong cap, or warm layer aloft, will inhibit thunderstorm development until around 7 to 9PM. Most of the thunderstorm development will take place at around 9PM to 12AM across North Texas with a south/southeastward moving cold front. The overall coverage of thunderstorms will maximize at around 10 to 11 PM as storm congeal into an organized squall line.
THREATS: Storms will begin in more of a discrete mode, which will favor the possibility of very large hail (up to the size of baseballs) and a couple of tornadoes, followed by a threat for damaging winds. The severe potential will be maximized for the areas just to the northeast of downtown Dallas, where the highest risk is. If any supercellular storm becomes long-lived, it may have the potential of putting down a strong tornado, but the chance of that occurring is really low at this present time. As storms congeal to a solid line over time, the threat for damaging winds and hail will be maximized. By midnight, the main storm mode should be damaging wind gusts and brief, isolated tornadoes.
CALL TO ACTION: Make sure you can hear severe weather watches and warnings this afternoon. Know where you are going if you happen to find yourself under a tornado warning. Lastly, take a moment and review your readiness kit in your safe place, including helmets, air horns, and hard sole shoes. For more information, including thoughts and apps for your phone, please see this post.
After storms move through during the middle of the night, expect a very cool morning with temperatures starting in the mid 50s, warming to the low 70s by the end of the day tomorrow.
Keep tabs on the blog and our twitter feeds later today for frequent updates as they happen!
RADAR CHECK - A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is currently in progress over Ellis and Kaufman counties. Showers continue to spread northeast for our western counties, just to the east of Abilene.
This period of "lull" will persist throughout the day. We will remain mostly cloudy with afternoon highs reaching towards the upper 70s. Similar to Monday, but just a few degrees cooler.
A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT - If you don't already know, we have been monitoring the potential for a few severe thunderstorms across North Texas ahead of another strong cold front that will bring another rush of cold air into the region (I'll get to that later).
The latest Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Outlook places much of North Texas under some risk of severe weather. To elaborate, the SPC has defined an area of standard "slight" risk (level 2/5) of severe storms for starting to the west of Fort Worth to the lower Ohio Valley. A marginal risk (level 1/5) of severe storms extends from the east of San Angelo to the lower Ohio Valley. It should be noted that these convective outlooks are valid until 6:00 AM the following day.
Please keep in mind that these outlooks are just a general guideline, and thunderstorms can care less about these lines and colors, so don't get too caught up with it. Everyone that is involved in a risk has a fair game of seeing some type of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
TIMING - A cluster of thunderstorms is already impacting Southern Oklahoma along a stationary warm front (which will eventually turn into a cold front by the time it moves through North Texas). Some development is possible for the counties closest to the Red River, but the main severe weather window for North Texas will mostly come during the overnight hours into Friday morning. Earlier mesoscale model runs showed a couple of supercells reaching the metroplex right around dinner time (which would have a higher likelihood of turning severe), so don't be alarmed if there are a couple of storms by the evening, but remember, our main window for weather would be overnight.
THREATS - There is just a bit of uncertainty regarding whether or not the severe storms will be surface-based or just ever so slightly elevated above the cap. Storms would yield more of a low-end tornado risk if they happen to become slightly elevated about the cap. All modes of severe weather would be more likely if storms become more surface-based. In either scenario, a hail threat exists.
RAIN - There is a chance that the storms that come through overnight may get undercut by the cold front, mitigating any risk of severe weather. One way or another, there is a good chance that we will get wet while you are asleep. But rain amounts should stay under 1/2 inch for many communities.
If you put this into perspective, overall severe weather risk for North Texas is not high, meaning, we are NOT expecting a widespread severe weather event/outbreak. This is just a routine threat of strong to severe thunderstorms that you will see more commonly as we head into Meteorological Spring. Keep in mind that any storms left over by midnight will more than likely get undercut by the cold front, cutting off the supply of unstable air. However, it is not wise to get complacent about these severe weather risks. We can use this as good practice for when we actually have a severe weather event. It is a good idea (when you get home) to clean out the storm closest or basement and have a reliable, robust way of receiving warnings (NEVER RELY ON STORM SIRENS AS YOUR PRIMARY METHOD OF GETTING WARNINGS!!!).
Just make sure you are working with fresh forecasts. If you are viewing a forecast that is at least six hours old, you are working with bad information.
Be sure to follow me and Jonathan William's twitter handle for the latest updates regarding today! We will go live whenever warnings are issued for the North-Central Texas region.
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On June 23, 2018 the NWS has issued a “Moderate Risk for parts of Southern Kansas & Northern Oklahoma for June 24, 2018. So, you might be asking what’s a Moderate Risk? Or how bad is a Moderate Risk? A moderate risk is the 2nd highest rating for Outlooks (1st being High Risk). So how bad is a Moderate Risk? Well, it’s pretty bad. For moderate risk, there’s a likely chance for severe weather. Large Hail, Widespread Wind Damage, Long Track & Strong Tornadoes are expected for moderate risk days. So far, we haven’t had a lot of tornadoes being EF-3+, so far of this post there has been only 5. But tomorrow, could increase that amount. If your in the Slight Risk Areas - Moderate Risk, make sure to tune in to your local weather stations tomorrow!
To stay up to date with Tornadoes & Severe Weather Follow My Twitter @TornadoHub.
CRedit for the Pictures: NWS
On June 14, 2018 a Tornado touched down in the town of Wilkes-Barre, PA around 10:00 PM EST. The NWS has confirmed a EF2 Tornado with estimated wind speeds around 130 MPH. Reports say that the tornado touched down near the La-Z-Boy furniture store at Mundy Street at Highland Park Boulevard and ending near Interstate 81 behind Dick’s Sporting Goods in the Arena Hub Plaza. A lot of buildings have been destroyed including:
- Panera Bread
- Tovon Jewelers
- Kurlancheek Furniture
- Sneaker King
- LA Nails
and many more.
Credit goes to these websites for the pictures:
Philly Voice &
Follow my Twitter Account @TornadoHub for instant updates on Severe Weather!
#BREAKING - The NWS/SPC has issued a severe thunderstorm watch (large hail 2”+, 70mph winds, a tornado or two) until 2P. #txwx #dfwwx #ntxwx #apexwx #texasweather #texas #dallas
After a day of showers and storms, some severe, I think it's a great time to talk about what May will hold. Unfortunately, we look to have a very stormy may with plenty of severe weather.
Looking at long range data, NAO will turn into a negative phase. The storm track looks to be placed RIGHT OVER Texas. This will bring lots of thunderstorms, and in the early part of May, we may have a chance of strong storms each day. This is a fairly usual pattern, but this May looks to be even stormier than normal.
We also look to have an active dryline through the month. This typically sets up squall lines of severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, and flash flooding. We will closely watch that.
We will also may have an active frontal pattern in the area. This will allow for plenty of lift through the month with deep instability. And with the storm track over us, we may have quite the stormy month.
simulated Radar 7:00Pm tueSDay (4/03)
A cold front will kick off showers and thunderstorms Tuesday evening across North and Central Texas.
day 4 severe weather oUtlook via spc